The unsatisfying-but-unavoidable truth about the Hawks' loss to the Cavs in the 2015 Eastern Conference finals was that they just missed a lot of open shots. They had about the same frequency of open shots during the postseason as they did during the regular season but they just barely made enough of them to get by the Nets and Wizards and didn't make enough of them against the Cavs.
Maybe declining health and increasing fatigue contributed to the shooting woes, but those woes were real. In an interview with Grantland following the Cavs series, Hawks boss Mike Budenholzer acknowledged that his team just couldn't convert good looks:
"Those numbers have been the hardest thing for me," Budenholzer said. "I want to be critical of us, but it's not very critical to say, 'We're just not making open shots.' We did get good looks, but maybe there were red flags there. We have to look at everything."
Now the Hawks have sputtered to losses in five of six games to drop to fifth in the East, with Budenholzer citing the offense as the major issue. But the NBA's tracking statistics show that, just like last season, the 2015-16 Hawks are getting a higher ratio of wide open looks than anyone in the league. They just aren't making them at nearly the same rate.
(The NBA tracking stats define “open” shots as a defender within four to six feet of the shooter and “wide open” as a defender no closer than six feet.)
Source: NBA tracking statistics.
As you can see the Hawks are getting a higher frequency of “wide open” looks than last season but they’ve had a drastic 5.6 decrease in eFG on those attempts. The 2.8 percent drop in effective field-goal percentage on “open” or “wide open” shots is significant for a jump-shooting, space-and-pace team. The Hawks are playing at a faster pace than last season (96.8 vs. 93.9) and they seem to be creating space, but they just aren’t making shots.
If a team isn’t making shots, then it had better be getting to the free-throw line, rebounding its misses or creating turnovers. The Hawks are not good at drawing fouls, they are the worst in the league at offensive rebounding and while they create a lot of turnovers they also commit a lot of them.
Maybe the Hawks can be more careful with the ball but they seem to lack the personnel to get much better at those other things. Even if they do all of those things a bit better they eventually have to make shots, which is why effective field-goal percentage is the most important of the Four Factors.
Shooting is the one area in which you’d think the Hawks, as presently constructed, could get better. But if their shooters are missing open shots, what can they do?
They can reasonable hope Kyle Korver will start making more open shots. He’s on track for one of the worst shooting seasons of his career and, at age 34, that’s troublesome even when allowing for the fact that shooters tend to age gracefully.
Korver is getting about the same percentage of “wide open” looks this season as last (23.1 vs. 23.7) but has posted a 53.6 eFG after he had a 78.5 eFG on those shots last year. Korver has been forced to shoot off the dribble more frequently--27.3 percent of his shot attempts are pull-ups this season vs. 18.9 in 2014-15—so finding a way to get him more catch-and-shoots might help. Trouble is, he’s dropped from a 72.2 eFG on catch-and-shoots last season to a 56.5 eFG this season.
The Hawks also could abandon their attempts to make Al Horford a 3-point shooter. Horford has been among the best mid-range shooters for most of his career and still is, but now he’s launching 4.6 three-point attempts per 100 possessions and making just 33 percent. Better that those shots come from within his sweet spots at 15 to 20 feet.
Those are two obvious ways I see that the Hawks might become a better offensive team with their current personnel. I’m sure there are others. Maybe more shots for Kent Bazemore? Perhaps more minutes for Mike Scott? Better health and/or focus for Jeff Teague, or some rapid growth for Dennis Schroeder?
In the end, though, the Hawks just have to make more open shots.
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