Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan says the Patriots are the "best defense we've seen this year." Maybe he's right. But I'm looking at the adjusted numbers and I see a pretty good defense that has improved while facing bad offensive teams. Shanahan has more information than me, and he's studying New England's defense closer than anyone, so it's possible the Falcons' dang-near unstoppable offense will be tested like never before in the Super Bowl.
But it's also true that New England's D will be challenged like it hasn't been in weeks. The Falcons have been the No. 1 in offense in football pretty much the entire year while facing a lot of good defensive teams: their opponents' average defensive DVOA ranked second-best in the NFL. The Patriots, meanwhile, have faced a lot of middling-to-bad offensive units lately. The weighted offensive DVOA ranks (not including playoffs) for their past 10 opponents: 17th, 22nd, 31st, 32nd, 15th, 30th, 31st, 13th, 23rd and eighth.
About that last outlier: The Steelers are a very capable offensive team and the Pats D dominated them in an AFC divisional game two weekends ago. But that one gets an asterisk. To understand why, I suggest you read all of Cian Fahey's excellent write-up of the Pats-Steelers game at Football Outsiders.
The gist of Fahey’s review is that once an injury forced star Steelers running back LeVeon Bell out in the first quarter, the Patriots were free to shade their coverage to superlative wide receiver Antonio Brown while not leaving themselves vulnerable against the run. Anyone who’s watched the Falcons this season knows why such a strategy would be harder for the Pats to replicate in the Super Bowl. Writes Fahey:
Shanahan uses hard play fakes out of passing sets that look exactly like the offense's run designs. It gets his quarterback more time in the pocket, and it also distorts coverages by drawing linebackers forward and creating hesitation in defensive backs. Shanahan has used this scheme to great effect with lesser quarterbacks than Matt Ryan. Ryan's numbers have flattered him this year because he has repeatedly been put in situations where his receivers have been wide-open after play fakes. Shanahan repeatedly attacks the space between the safeties and linebackers that is created by play-action. . . .
Even though the Steelers offense boasts a good quarterback and a lot of talent, that unit was built on beating you in specific ways. The Falcons offense is better built to adapt to specific looks because they incorporate packaged plays (plays where the quarterback has an option to throw the ball even if it is a called run) to quickly expose alignments that favor the offense.
No doubt the Falcons will be tested by New England's defense but I say they will pass.
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