The Falcons methodically dispatched of the Panthers Saturday afternoon. It got better for the Falcons when the Bucs lost to the Saints, making the Falcons NFC South champions. Then it turned into a perfect day for the Falcons when the Cardinals beat the Seahawks after Arizona had blown a 13-point point lead within the final four minutes.
That left the Falcons (10-5) with the second-best record among NFC division leaders, ahead of the Seahawks (9-5-1), and with a real chance to earn the No. 2 NFC seed for the playoffs. The simplest way for that to happen is for the Lions (9-5) to lose at the Cowboys on Monday night and then the Falcons beat the Saints next weekend. That would clinch No. 2 for the Falcons, who would get a bye and then play host to every NFC contender except the top-seeded Cowboys (12-2).
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But let's say the Lions beat the Cowboys Monday and the Packers next weekend, and the Falcons beat the Saints. In that case the Falcons and Lions each would be 11-5 and champions of their respective divisions with a 9-3 NFC record, 4-1 record in common games, and no head-to-head meeting. Under that scenario, the fourth tiebreaker for seeding among teams from different divisions applies: strength of victory.
That's where it gets complicated. Strength of victory is the combined winning percentage of the opponents each team has beaten and that won't be known until after the final weekend. After Saturday's games, the combined winning percentage for vanquished Falcons opponents was .469 (61-69-1) and for beaten Lions opponents it was .391 (52-81-1).
UPDATE: According to the computer simulations run by fivethirtyeight.com prior to Sunday's games, if the Lions and Falcons both win out then the Falcons would have a 95 percent chance of earning the No. 2 seed.
A victory over the Cowboys would help Detroit’s strength of victory while beating the Saints (7-8) wouldn’t do much for the Falcons’ strength of victory. However, the Saints and Packers are two of the three common opponents between the Falcons and Lions and so those wins would cancel each another out. The Rams are the other common opponent that the Falcons and Lions both beat, so a Los Angles victory also wouldn’t benefit either the Falcons or Lions.
Like I said, the strength of victory tiebreaker gets complicated but the Falcons appear to be in prime position to win it over the Lions. Right now the Falcons and their backers should be pulling for the Cowboys to beat the Lions om Monday night (even though Dallas already has clinched home field in the NFC playoffs). If that happens, then all the Falcons would need to do is beat the Saints to earn the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
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