The Falcons enter their bye week having won consecutive games for the first time this season. I understand if you remain skeptical about their ability to make a run to the playoffs.
The Falcons mostly are just trying to survive with their injury-depleted defense. Their offense that has been great in four games, OK in two others and not very good in the opener. They’ve already lost twice at home, desperately held on for three victories there, and play six of their final nine games on the road.
Yet the Falcons (3-4) have the same number of victories as the Packers, who are in position for the second NFC wild card, and six other teams bidding for a berth. The Falcons aren’t a great team but there are signs they are getting better. And it won’t take greatness to earn an NFC playoff bid.
In the parity-obsessed NFL the idea is to hover around break-even and look for some good luck. That’s why it misses the point to dismiss Falcons victories over the Giants and Bucs because those opponents aren’t very good. It’s difficult to beat anybody in the NFL, and the Falcons did it two weeks in a row, in different ways, and with different players providing key plays.
If the Falcons’ spirits seemed sapped by the avalanche of injuries and close shootout losses, the past two weeks provided evidence that they may yet recapture esprit de corps that is coach Dan Quinn’s mantra.
“I know you say, ‘Here’s ‘D.Q’ talking (again) about Brotherhood,’ but it’s way deeper than that on our team,” Quinn said Tuesday. “It helps us in our tough stretches because we have that to rely on. This team is battle-tested. They’ve been in a number of close games.
“There’s a lot of improvement that we can make. That’s happened over the last few years in the second half because of our push on fundamentals, and I expect that to happen again this season.”
Every coach of every middling team is saying the same thing. There’s the parity effect, again. You can say you have a real chance and it will be true for as long as you can stay among the pack of indistinguishably mediocre teams.
But not all the NFC wild card contenders have a quarterback as good as Matt Ryan. Hardly any of them do. It’s been lost amid the disappointing losses and defensive collapses, but Ryan is producing MVP-like numbers again. He ranks among the NFL’s top five in yards per game (third), yards per attempt (fifth), completion percentage (third), touchdowns (tied for fifth) and interception percentage (fourth).
Among the NFC’s other quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers certainly is better than Ryan and Drew Brees probably is better. No other NFC QB is in Ryan’s class. None have a wide receiver corps as good, and Julio Jones still is the best of them all.
The Falcons’ running game still is treading water, but I like that coordinator Steve Sarkisian sticks with it so as to set up play-action passes. Also, the Falcons have become one of the NFL’s best red-zone scoring teams after they were bad all last season and at the start of this one.
“Hardly anybody was talking about it,” Quinn quipped.
The offense is good enough for the Falcons to win most weeks if the defense can be average. As I’ve stated before, you can’t realistically expect the Falcons to be a good defensive team with three good starters on injured reserve. You do want to see improvement, and that’s happened.
The defense carried the day against the Giants. They are a below-average offensive team and the Falcons made them look that way, which is progress. The Falcons didn’t get a takeaway, but they forced four punts and limited the Giants to two field goals on five red-zone trips, including a fourth-and-one stop at the goal line.
“Defensively, the first couple of weeks with the injuries, it looked like we got blitzed a little bit,” Quinn said. “And we got back off the mat and made some improvement.”
The Falcons’ defense also is getting healthier. Tackle Grady Jarrett returned to the lineup Monday after missing two games and injected some urgency into the pass rush while sacking Eli Manning twice. Linebacker Deion Jones, on injured reserve, could start practicing next week and is eligible to return to play against the Cowboys in Week 11.
The Falcons must hang on while hoping other NFC teams slip. The victory over the Giants did nothing to improve their playoff odds, as calculated by FiveThirtyEight. The model gave the Falcons a 28 percent chance before the Giants game and the same chance after it.
The Panthers got their fourth victory on Sunday and the Saints (5-1) extended their lead in the NFC South. Those teams have better playoff odds, according to FiveThirtyEight. So do six other NFC teams: the Rams, Vikings, Eagles, Seahawks, Lions and Washington.
The Falcons need to play better but — back to parity again — all NFC contenders outside of the Rams (7-0) also have major flaws. That includes the Saints, who lost at home to the Bucs and lucked out in two of their victories. The Falcons already beat the Panthers and squandered a good chance at Philadelphia.
The Falcons can help their cause by winning at Washington (4-2) after the bye. They’ll go there with a top quarterback and a defense that’s improving in performance and health. The Falcons aren’t a great team yet this season, and probably won’t be, but they still can grind their way to a postseason bid in the NFC.
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