The rationale for the Braves trading outfielders Justin Upton and Jason Heyward for prospects after the 2014 season was that they wouldn’t be able to afford to sign either player to an extension or (failing that) to a new deal once they became free agents after the 2016 season.
After Heyward signed with the Cubs for $184 million (!) last month, late Monday night came more confirmation that the Braves' rationale was correct: Reports say the Tigers signed Upton to a six-year, $132.75 million contract. That's a bit less total money than the eight-year, $135 million contract extension Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman signed in 2013, the largest and longest deal in franchise history.
The Braves never would pay even close to $184 million for a player. They also aren't likely to have two guys with $130 million-plus contracts on the payroll. Top prospects aren't a sure thing (or even an even odds thing) and by now lots of Braves fans are tired of hearing about them. But two of the prospects the Braves received in exchange for Upton (lefty Max Fried and outfielder Mallex Smith) are ranked among the organization's top 10 by Baseball America.
So the Braves got two potential future stars for a player whose price ended up being too high. It also turns out they probably made the deal at the right time. Upton is a legit power hitter and the Braves desperately need that but he hasn't been able to duplicate his 2011 season with the D-Backs, when he was fourth in MVP voting at just age 23.
Last season with the Padres, Upton also couldn’t build on his strong 2014 season with the Braves. He’s still young enough where he has a chance to put up more All-Star seasons, and I’m sure that’s what he plans to do in the two years before the opt-out, but the Tigers paid a steep price to find out. (Also don’t forget Upton is a sub par outfielder.)
Smith isn’t a power guy but he can be a speedy lead-off hitter and the Braves need that, too. He finished the 2015 season at Triple-A Gwinnett so there’s a chance this season Braves backers will see some tangible proof of what they got for Upton, who they rightly figured would cost too much to keep.
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