The Braves have a better record on the road (46-30) than at SunTrust Park (43-38) but that’s not the same as saying they are a better away team. There are so many variables involved — pitchers, lineups, ballparks and weather conditions — that it’s hard to make an apples-to-apples comparison of home and road.
The Braves still don’t know which opponent they will face in the best-of-five NLDS, and whether they will have home-field advantage. Chances are the Braves will meet the Dodgers, Rockies, Cubs or Brewers. My feeling is that if the Braves win their playoff series, it will be because their offense generates power, and some road parks may favor their sluggers more than others.
I looked at the FanGraphs spray charts for Braves regulars, and five of them have a clear tendency to pull dingers out to right or right-center field: Ozzie Albies (all 16 home runs to right field when batting left), Freddie Freeman (17 of 23), Johan Camargo (10 of 11 while batting left), Nick Markakis (14) and Ender Inciarte (10).
Three Braves right-handed batters tend to pull homers out to left field: Dansby Swanson (14 total homers), Kurt Suzuki (12) an Charlie Culberson. Rookie phenom Ronald Acuna, who leads the Braves with 26 total home runs, hits them out all over the park: 13 to left, four to center and nine to right.
The spray chart for doubles (not counting flares) pretty much tells the same story. That means a ballpark that gives up relatively more home runs and doubles to right and right-center could favor Braves power hitters. And, as noted, the Braves have hit lefties well in part because righties Acuna, Albies, Camargo Suzuki and Tyler Flowers.
Per Swish Analytics, SunTrust Park is a fairly neutral park. Left-handed batters hit relatively more doubles, which no doubt is related to balls that are smashed off the 15-foot wall. Here is a heat map for SunTrust, with right field data for left-handed hitters and left field data for right-handed hitters. (Yellow represents neutral production, green is above-average and red is below-average.)
Following are the heat maps for the past four years at the potential NLDS road parks for the Braves:
Credit: Swish Analytics
Credit: Swish Analytics
Credit: Swish Analytics
Credit: Swish Analytics
No surprise that both left- and right-handed hitters produce at above-average rates at Colorado’s Coors Field.
Dodger Stadium may favor Braves hitters because lefties hit an above-average number of homers out to right field. The same goes for lefties hitting doubles to right at Chicago’s Wrigley Field (though they hit relatively fewer homers there). Left-hander batters at Milwaukee’s Miller Park also hit an above-average number of homers out to right field.
Park factors data isn’t perfect, and the weather on a particular game day can play a factor in how the stadium plays. But the data provide a snapshot of which parks may favor which type of hitters. Among the likely road parks in the NLDS, Braves sluggers could find Dodgers Stadium or Miller Park to be the friendliest confines.
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