For all who believed the Braves' 20-10 finish last season was foreshadowing of things to come, take note: They are the relative inverse of that at 11-20 to start this season after Wednesday's 4-2 defeat in Houston. They have lost six straight, eight of nine and 14 of 19 since the relative nirvana experience of .500 (6-6).
It's only early May but the 11-20 start projects to 57-105 over a full season. Various analytics sites projects the Braves to finish with about 93 losses. But hey, "Welcome home," as they would say in Cumberland.
There are a number of reasons for this start, but none more than starting pitching, a subject I will delve into a bit more on Thursday.
Jaime Garcia started Wednesday's game. He lasted six innings, allowing six hits and four runs, including three in the fifth after he had two outs. If this represented a low-water mark for Braves' starters over the last nine games, it wouldn't be bad. However, it's closer to a highlight.
Over the last nine games, Braves' starters have lasted a combined 48 2/3 innings (average: 5.37). During that period, there has been only one "quality start," which is defined as allowing three or fewer runs in six or more innings. R.A. Dickey allowed three runs and four hits in six innings in a 9-7 win over the New York Mets.
In the last nine games, Braves starters have allowed a combined 40 earned runs, 61 hits, 20 walks, 15 homers and have a composite earned run average of 7.45. The worst starter has been Bartolo Colon, who over his last four starts has allowed 23 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings.
Starting pitching was expected to be a problem this season, but this has been even worse than expected. The Braves' staff ERA is 4.92 and their starters' combined ERA is 5.01. The rotation also ranks 26th in total innings, which creates the additional problem of a taxed bullpen. The bullpen was expected to be mediocre enough in normal circumstances.
Here's the last nine games by Braves' starters
• Mike Foltynewicz (at Milwaukee, 4-3 loss): 6 inn., 4 hits, 4 runs, 4 earned runs, 2 homers.
• Julio Teheran (New York, 7-5 loss): 6 inn., 6 hits, 6 runs, 6 earned runs, 3 walks, 2 homers.
• R.A. Dickey (New York, 9-7 win): 6 inn., 4 hits, 3 runs, 3 earned runs, 4 walks, 2 homers.
• Bartolo Colon (New York, 16-5 loss): 4 inn., 7 hits, 5 runs, 5 earned runs, 2 walks.
• Mike Foltynewicz (St. Louis, 10-0 loss): 4 inn., 9 hits, 7 runs, 7 earned runs, 2 walks, 2 homers.
• Julio Teheran (St. Louis, 5-3 loss): 5 inn., 9 hits, 4 runs, 4 earned runs, 2 walks, 2 homers.
• R.A. Dickey (St. Louis, 6-4 loss): 6 inn., 8 hits, 4 runs, 4 earned runs, 2 walks, 2 homers.
• Bartolo Colon (at Houston, 8-3 loss): 5.2 inn, 8 hits, 8 runs, 8 earned runs, 3 homers.
• Jaime Garcia (at Houston, 4-2 loss): 6 inn., 6 hits, 4 runs, 4 earned runs, 5 walks.
The ERAs of the five starters: Teheran 4.69, Colon 7.22, Dickey 4.29, Garcia 4.33, Foltynewicz 4.55
Not good.
The question: Is it going to get any better?
Subscribe to the, “We Never Played The Game” podcast with the AJC's Jeff Schultz and WSB’s Zach Klein on iTunes. Episodes also can be downloaded from on-demand link on WSBRadio.com.
- Please, let's stop the Danny Ferry-back-to-Hawks talk
- Out past 2 a.m. before playoffs? So much for Howard's dedication
- Atlanta Confidence rankings: Falcons again at top
- Hawks' Ressler made right decision in end but quick GM hire is needed
- Ryan Howard hopes to get call up from Braves soon
- Tony Ressler's apparent U-turn: Hawks' shake-up may be coming
- Swanson handling things fine but Braves need to slow the promotion train
- Odds says Falcons will win NFC South again but record will drop
- Howard upset at benching and this homecoming seemed doomed from start
- Hawks' quick playoff exit affirms change is needed
- If McKinley is as good as he is emotional, Falcons chose well
- Falcons' drafts have become comfortable days since Dan Quinn's arrival
- Draft day blog: Falcons, Quinn still need to be thinking about defense
- Mike Budenholzer has reaffirmed the obvious --he can coach
- Credit to Kirby Smart for making right decision quickly on recruit
- Exclusive: Tony Ressler says he makes final decisions, plans no changes in front office
- Jacon Eason improving but spring game isn't time for deep analysis
- Falcons looks set up for future but payroll likely to become a problem
- Mixon off Falcons' draft board; team still uncertain about Freeney return
- Inciarte finally filling Braves' void left by Andruw Jones
- In Braves and Falcons stadium battle, Blank's tank is stuck at start line
- Hawks are in playoffs and few seem to care -- that's a problem
- When Buzz wears off, Braves will go as far as pitching carries them
- Chipper Jones: Watch for home runs in Braves' new stadium
- Julio Teheran, best the Braves have, struggles but wins on opening night
- Bobby Cox built Braves first time, he was right man to honor with statue
- Wizards' Wall, Beal present problems for Hawks in playoff series
- Sergio Garcia: A great Masters story we didn't see coming
- Jordan Spieth proving he's as resilient as he is good
- About Bubba Watson, his 'joke' and his 'love' for journalists
- Masters mystery: What has happened to Bubba Watson?
- Dustin Johnson and Masters have a day to forget
- Podcast blog: R.E.M.'s Mike Mills on Masters, sports, music and more
About the Author