The Maxwell Ratings will rank Georgia's 417 teams throughout the 2014 season. The ratings are based entirely on historical performance and on field results and do not consider personnel changes on the roster or coaching staffs.
Interesting results after Week Eleven:
- It seems like each week the Maxwell ratings predict a Colquitt County rout and each week the naysayers show up in droves, but to date the Packer's have beaten every weekly projection save for a 47-7 downing of Pelham when Maxwell projected a 41-point victory (of note, Colquitt led 40-0 at halftime after only seven offensive plays). This pushes their record against the projections to 6-1 against GHSA teams, but more importantly forces the program to continually adjust the Packers upward in an attempt to reconcile their rating against their performance. They topped a rating of 100 a few weeks ago after a 45-27 defeat of Lowndes and this week they sit nearly a touchdown and a half above that. They are now 24 points above Class AAAAAA number two Lee County, a team they defeated 58-14 earlier in the year. Maxwell estimates if they were to play the other 63 Class AAAAAA teams 100 times each, they would lose less than 90 games total and enjoy an average margin of victory of over 5 touchdowns after accounting for slowed scoring in lopsided games. They play Camden County in their regular season finale this Friday where Maxwell casts Colquitt as a 37-point favorite.
- Peach County, a 2 point favorite last week over previously undefeated Westside of Macon, turned a 49-16 route into an 11-point jump in the ratings to take over at number one in Class AAA, a spot held all year by Washington County. Peach County last finished on top of their classification in 2006 after going 14-1 and winning the state championship. Their only blemish that year was a 35-21 early regular season loss to Westside.
Maxwell GHSA Football Ratings
As this season's games are played, the Maxwell Ratings will be based on a modified logistic regression of the current football season's results in combination with each team's historical performance. More recent games and games against similarly rated opponents carry more weight and the weight of each team's historical performance diminishes as the team's season progresses.
The current total weight of all team's historical performance is 0.59%.
For the current season, the ratings accurately account for the winner of 1,695 of 1,856 total games including 4 ties (91.43%) and accurately reflect approximately 68.3% of all game margins within 12.72 points.
The ratings are scaled so that 100.00 is the rating required to win 91.5% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against all teams in the highest classification. The schedule strength is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin tournament against a particular team's opponents.
All data is courtesy of the Georgia High School Football Historians Association.
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Visit the Maxwell Ratings for more ratings and information, including Maxwell's Georgia High School Football Archive.
Home Advantage: 0.81
By Class
All-Class
Classification rankings are shown in [brackets]. Each team links to its page at the Georgia High School Football Historians Association. Please submit errors or omissions through their forums.
Regions
Each region is shown with its “Competitive Rating”, which is the rating required to win 80% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition, and its “Average Rating”, which is the rating required to win 50% of all games against the region’s teams in an infinite round robin competition.
Least Likely Results
These are the least likely results of the season using the ratings above. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, the expected winning percentage of the favored team, and the likelihood of the on-field result.
Highest Rated Matchups
These are the highest rated matchups of the season using the ratings above. The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game, which favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents. These may change as the season progresses. Each row shows the game rating, the game data, the difference in the teams after accounting for the home advantage, and the expected winning percentage of the favored team.
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