List: Playoff teams that were given little chance in preseason forecasts

ajc.com

Of the 240 teams that made the playoffs this season, 41 were given less than a 50-percent chance in preseason by the computer Maxwell Ratings. Most surprising? Lithia Springs, given only a 0.6 percent chance (or 1-in-164.5) of qualifying out of Region 6-AAAAA. Lithia Springs qualified as the No. 4 seed on Monday after winning a pair of mini-games and is making its first-ever state-playoff appearance and first postseason game of any kind since 1981. Next most surprising was South Paulding at 1.6 percent. The Spartans were 2-8 last season but 8-2 in 2019 and made the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Below are the percent chances of each of those given less than 50-50 odds in preseason.

Class AAAAAAA

13.3% - Shiloh

33.9% - Cherokee

43.2% - North Forsyth

Class AAAAAA

1.6% - South Paulding

5.1% - North Atlanta

6.0% - Sprayberry

12.5% - Morrow

13.1% - M.L. King

19.6% - Houston County

21.2% - Northview

47.6% - Alexander

Class AAAAA

0.6% - Lithia Springs

5.7% - Ola

17.2% - Hiram

20.5% - Decatur

46.0% - Harris County

49.6% - South Effingham

Class AAAA

8.2% - Denmark

22.0% - Luella

28.7% - Madison County

37.3% - Hardaway

49.5% - Perry

Class AAA

23.6% - Fannin County

31.2% - Haralson County

34.4% - Brantley County

34.5% - Central (Macon)

Class AA

3.0% - Temple

10.7% - Model

12.8% - Putnam County

37.3% - Metter

40.8% - B.E.S.T. Academy

48.7% - Bleckley County

Class A (private)

21.9% - St. Francis

47.5% - First Presbyterian

Class A (public)

7.4% - Warren County

14.4% - Johnson County

15.1% - Bowdon

15.6% - McIntosh Co. Acad.

22.1% - Taylor County

29.8% - Claxton

48.0% - Wilcox County

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