Job cuts in Georgia weren’t quite as brutal as they were for the nation. And the UGA forecast expects Georgians will see bigger boosts in housing construction and benefit from automotive industry gains and a surprisingly large batch of economic development announcements.
Strong economic growth in the second half of 2021 would essentially make up for much of the economic output that was lost in 2020, Humphreys said.
The forecast predicts Georgia’s economy will grow 4% next year, compared to a decline of 3.7% this year.
Georgia and metro Atlanta benefit from strength in transportation, logistics and e-commerce, Humphreys said. Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport could get a boost in cargo. And cyber security is expected to see gains.
But some parts of Georgia’s economy may not fully recover to previous job levels for years or, possibly, ever, he said.
The pandemic has likely accelerated trends that were already brewing, including shifts to online alternatives, the economist said. Among those at risk: movie theaters and passenger airlines, the latter as many companies have pivoted to virtual business meetings.
A dip back into a recession is still possible, but not predicted, according to UGA’s forecast.
Ayers, the business school dean, said a still-greater surge in coronavirus cases is the biggest risk. More federal stimulus spending may be needed, he said. Given the economic risks, “it is better to err on the side of too much stimulus rather than not enough.”