The train started to leave the station a couple of years ago, but you can still catch it. If you're a baseball fan who has avoided baseball's statistical renaissance in the past decade-plus, it's time to finally get on board.
It's been going on for much longer than that thanks to baseball information pioneer Bill James. But it wasn't until Billy Beane and the Moneyball Oakland Athletics in the early 2000s that people really began to take notice. And in the past three to four years especially, baseball's sabermetric statistics have taken over the game and ushered in a new era.
The important aspect, if you're still on the fence or don't want to bother with the new-age view, is that it isn't just a different way some fans like to analyze the game. These numbers have altered the way that teams make decisions and how they value players. It is now a key aspect in the decision-making process throughout the leagues. In this way, not understanding these numbers is willingly leaving yourself out in the cold to what's going on with the game. Teams have analytical departments, entire offices dedicated to analyzing the mountains of information that are now available. So, that is how the game must be covered as well.
Many fans have viewed the game the same way for decades, and there's nothing really wrong with that. All of the traditional stats are still valued, but there's a new frontier of information available to offer a more complete picture on a player's performance. Those statistics are not going away and will continue to be prominent in the way the Indians and the rest of the major leagues are covered.
There are six measurements that will be used here most often: Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Field Independent Pitching (FIP), Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP), Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR).
In an effort to make sure these numbers -- or what they really mean -- aren't lost, and to make sure everything is clear to those who are new to it all, here's a quick primer with context using examples from the Indians' 2015 season. Once you know what each number means and what it actually is saying, everything is much more easily digested.
Below are quick definitions as a starter. All of the following numbers are according to analytical baseball website FanGraphs.com.
WAR
The number that aims to encompass all facets of the game and say how many wins a player gave his team over a replacement level player is also the one that sparked debates over recent American League Most Valuable Player races when Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera _ a great hitter -- and Los Angeles' Mike Trout -- a superb all-around player -- were the top candidates.
In terms of the Indians, Jason Kipnis led the Indians with 5.2 WAR, much behind his torrid first half of the season. Francisco Lindor was second on the team with 4.6 WAR despite playing only 99 games. Michael Brantley's 3.8, Carlos Santana's 2.4 and Lonnie Chisenhall's 2.1 were next among position players. Going the other way, the departed Michael Bourn had a -0.1 in his 95 games for the Indians, indicating he was below the average minor-league replacement player in his time with the Indians.
Kipnis' 5.2 means he added 5.2 wins to the Indians' 2015 season above what a replacement player would have. It also led all second basemen in 2015, meaning he was the most valuable. Lindor's 4.6 WAR led the AL among shortstops and was second in the game behind the San Francisco Giants' Brandon Crawford at 4.7.
On the pitching side, Corey Kluber's 5.5 led the team and was eighth in the majors. Carlos Carrasco's 4.8 WAR was tied for 14th.
A WAR of more than 3 is pretty good. Once a player's WAR climbs above 7 or 8, he's likely in the MVP conversation. Babe Ruth is the only player to reach 13 WAR in a season, an astronomical number, and he did it four times.
FIP
The number that is essentially ERA but with defensive variables taken out is also the one that says Kluber wasn't much different in 2015 than he was in his Cy Young 2014 season, despite his win-loss record taking a major hit. Kluber's record was among the worst in the game and his ERA grew to 3.49, but his 2.97 FIP was 14th in baseball (he had a 2.35 in 2014). Carrasco's 2.84 FIP was ninth in the league. If a pitcher's ERA is much higher than his FIP, it pretty much means he was unlucky when it comes to defense behind him.
BABIP
This is a good tool for fantasy baseball players. If a hitter's BABIP was well below .300, it might have meant he was unlucky last year, i.e., he hit line drives that were caught or had great plays made against him. A rule in these stats is that things regress back to their norms. So, if a hitter has a BABIP of .300 five straight years and then one year it dips or increases by 50 points, it was probably an anomaly. Line-drive rates can also be a factor, as some hitters drive the ball more, so their BABIP actually should be above .300.
Kipnis and Lindor both had high BABIPs at .356 and .348, respectively. Kipnis, though, also had a .345 BABIP in 2013, so that is probably closer to the norm for him. On the other hand, Santana had a BABIP of .261, but with a career .271 mark, he should be a little luckier in 2016, though not by much.
wRC+
This is a number to evenly evaluate hitters and their value in a lineup. In terms of the Indians, this is where Santana makes his money.
Santana last season had a .231 batting average, a paltry figure for a needed hitter in the lineup. In fact, his batting average has never been above .268, and it's been stuck at .231 for two seasons. A lot of people have written him off because of it. But in part because he gets on base at such a high rate, Santana has been an above-average hitter in the league every season since 2010.
Last season, Santana had a wRC+ of 110, meaning he was 10 percent better than league average. That was actually still well below his career average of 124. In the past three seasons, Santana's 123 wRC+ would be 38th in the game, one spot better than the Milwaukee Brewers' Ryan Braun.
DRS/UZR
Basically, how many runs did this player save or give up compared to league averages in the course of a season? Both numbers aim to show roughly that, though they are slightly different. These defensive numbers are still a little fluky because the formulas are still being developed. Be cautious when looking at these numbers with sample sizes smaller than two or three full seasons.
In terms of the Indians, the interesting cases are Chisenhall and Lindor. Chisenhall, after moving to right field, turned his career around and had 11 defensive runs saved and a 9.3 UZR. With zero being considered league average in both categories, that made him, statistically, one of the top three right fielders in baseball last season despite being new to the position. Lindor, of course, brought great defensive value (the reason his WAR was higher than that of the Houston Astros' Carlos Correa, the AL Rookie of the Year) with 10 defensive runs saved and a UZR of 10.5. Those marks were both in the top-five in the league.
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