At such a time, we feel compelled to state what should be obvious but, in the rush to wring teeth and gnash hands, is being trampled under panicked feet: It is still March. Opening Day is nearly three weeks off. The playoffs don’t begin until October, which is so distant you’d need a Hubble Telescope — not to be confused with Carl Hubbell, who worked some good innings in his day — to view it. But after the dire doings of the past 48 hours, it’s more fashionable to ask:
Is Carl Hubbell a viable candidate to start opening day for the 2014 Atlanta Braves?
On Sunday, Kris Medlen walked off the field in Port St. Lucie, Fla., holding his right forearm. On Monday, Brandon Beachy exited after two innings in Clearwater, Fla. – two innings ahead of schedule, mind you – with what he would describe as tightness of the biceps. These not-so-cheery developments came in a spring that has yet to see Mike Minor throw a pitch in a practice game. (He had offseason urinary-tract surgery, which led him to miss conditioning, which led to shoulder soreness.)
If you’re keeping score at home, that makes health concerns for three of the Braves’ four best starting pitchers, and if I’m Julio Teheran, I’m treading lightly. The Braves’ presumed strength was that, in the absence of a true No. 1 starter, they could compensate by having four legitimate No. 2’s. At the rate this spring has unraveled, they could be down to Julio and Who’s Left by the time Game No. 1 arrives.
At the moment, we don’t know for sure that Medlen will miss significant time — he had an MRI Monday, the results of which won’t be revealed until Tuesday — or that Beachy will miss anything at all. But it is disconcerting that, after an offseason that saw Tim Hudson leave for San Francisco as a free agent, the first post-Huddy spring has become one lurch after another. Had the Braves known then what they’re learning now, they’d surely have handed Hudson another year at another $10 million, give or take. But that’s the thing about sports in general and pitching arms in specific: Nobody knows anything.
Also unclear is what needs to happen if Medlen is indeed disabled for the season or a chunk thereof. Is Teheran, who’s 23 but possessed of the best stuff in the organization, ready to start Game 1 in October? Is he ready to win the games that will lift a team to October? And if not Teheran, who? Minor, who was the Braves’ best starter from the midpoint of the 2012 season through last summer, is a definite possibility. Beachy appeared to be one in 2012, when he led the majors in ERA before undergoing Tommy John surgery. But his recovery hasn’t gone the way of many TJ patients.
Alex Wood is 22 and has started 11 big-league games; David Hale is 26 and has started two. Gavin Floyd, signed as a free agent over the winter, is coming off elbow surgery and isn’t expected to be ready until May. Freddy Garcia is a dandy insurance policy, but how long does it take for the Braves to learn what many other teams have already discovered: That there’s a reason he’s always available?
Not 30 seconds had passed Sunday after Medlen gripped his forearm before the Braves were being linked with Ervin Santana, the best unsigned free agent, but at last report he was seeking $50 million over four seasons and had balked at Toronto’s offer of $14 million for one. Would the Braves, who were willing to let old reliables Hudson and Brian McCann leave, be moved to sink so much money into a 31-year-old whose history is rather less reliable? (Santana has had four big-league seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA; he has had three with a plus-5.00.)
Then again, would a franchise that just invested nearly $300 million to re-up five key members of its young core be inclined to let a season of great promise wither before the first real pitch is thrown? If you’re in for a penny, shouldn’t you likewise be in for a pound? (Might want to check with Liberty Media before anteing up, though.)
The most important commodity in baseball is starting pitching. The Braves believed, for a reason, that they had enough of it. If medical reports are favorable, they still might. If those reports are less encouraging, general manager Frank Wren might have to hold his nose and make a deal he’d rather not make.
There’s a way to win 96 games and hoist a division flag even with a center fielder and a second baseman who can’t hit .200. There’s no way to win a division with bad starting pitching. And Carl Hubbell, since you asked, isn’t available. He died in 1988.
