We know the Braves will play Games 1 and 2 of the Division Series next Thursday and Friday. Beyond that, we know little about what October will entail. (Such is the nature of October.) Here, though, we make some guesses.
Which Round 1 opponent would be the most desirable?
Assuming the Braves hold the National League’s best record — they led St. Louis by a half-game Wednesday morning, and they hold the tiebreaking edge — they’ll face the winner of the Wild Card game, which figures to involve Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The ancillary benefit of not playing in that one-or-done abomination is that the winner can’t deploy its best starting pitcher until Game 3 of the Division Series. Given the recent dominance of Francisco Liriano, that would represent a bigger loss for Pittsburgh than for Cincinnati, which has three starters (Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Homer Bailey) of similar quality and is nursing Johnny Cueto back to his estimable form. If I’m the Braves, I’m rooting for the Pirates.
Which Round 1 opponent would be the least desirable?
That would be Los Angeles, which is all the more reason for the Braves to stay ahead of St. Louis. There are no guarantees in the postseason, but in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke the Dodgers have the sort of starting pitchers who can leave an opponent down 0-2 and facing abrupt elimination on the road. No team wants any part of L.A. in a best-of-five series.
Who starts Game 1 for the Braves?
A month ago, Mike Minor was a certainty. He had been the Braves’ best starting pitcher all season, and he still has the lowest ERA and WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) among starters. But Kris Medlen (eight consecutive quality starts) has been better over the past two months. The Braves have lost Minor’s four most recent starts, in which he has yielded five home runs and compiled an ERA of 4.15. The guess is that Medlen will get Game 1, which leads to another question.
If Minor doesn’t start Game 1, should he start Game 2?
Having Minor work in Game 2 would leave Game 3 to Julio Teheran, and do you want a rookie starting such a game on the road? Me, I’d have no issue with Teheran starting any game anywhere. He’s fearless, and he’s the Brave most apt to overmatch a high-caliber opponent. (You’ll recall him coming within four outs of a no-hitter against Pittsburgh in June.) It would be no great surprise to this correspondent if Teheran, who’s 22, has the sort of October that Steve Avery, who was then 21, did in 1991.
Is the rookie Alex Wood now the No. 1 left-handed reliever?
Scott Downs has faced 18 batters in September, yielding 10 hits and two walks. Seven of the past 20 batters faced by Luis Avilan have reached base. Wood, who’ll be a key member of this rotation soon, could emerge as the get-out-the-lefty choice this October.
Does Dan Uggla make the postseason roster?
Yes, mostly by default. Kansas City castoff Elliot Johnson has drawn eight September starts at second base, but the Braves saw in 2010 the peril of having to rely on a journeyman — meaning poor Brooks Conrad, forced to start at second base because injuries to Chipper Jones and Martin Prado left the infield bare — in the playoffs. And Uggla, who has one home run since July 25, is pretty good at drawing a walk if not hitting the ball. If there were another real option, manager Fredi Gonzalez might well seize it. There isn’t, though.
Does B.J. Upton make the postseason roster?
With Jason Heyward returning from his broken jaw to reclaim center field, Upton’s status could hinge on how many pitchers the Braves carry: If it’s 11, he should make it; if it’s 12, he might not. Or it could depend on the health of Reed Johnson, who hasn’t fully recovered from a sore Achilles. The Braves hope Johnson will be their right-handed pinch-hitter, but he has had three at-bats since July 25. Johnson would make five outfielders. (That’s counting Evan Gattis, whose primary position is folk hero.) Paul Janish, needed as a late-inning defender, figures to be the sixth infielder. Add catchers Brian McCann and Gerald Laird, and that’s 13 position players. Upton, who signed with the Braves for $75 million over five seasons and who hit seven home runs for Tampa Bay in the 2008 playoffs, could well be the last man in — or out.
How far will the Braves go?
I say again: Postseason baseball flouts prognostication. But if they finish as the No. 1 seed and St. Louis beats L.A., this could get mighty interesting.
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