NFL playoffs: Old-school matchup for Super Bowl

The first outdoor Super Bowl in a cold-weather city (New York) will take place in four weeks. Only the tough survive. Keep that in mind as we count down the playoff field:

12. San Diego (9-7): Why are the Chargers even here? Yes, they had impressive wins over Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Denver (combined record: 34-14). But they also lost to Houston, Oakland and Washington (combined record: 9-39). They make you seasick. They barely made it into the playoffs with an overtime win over a Kansas City team that rested 20 of 22 starters — and all that for a trip to Cincinnati. See ya.

11. Kansas City (11-5): Andy Reid has done a remarkable coaching job with a team that went 2-14 last season. But the Chiefs have a limited offense led by a great running back (Jamaal Charles rushed for 1,287 yards) and a C-plus quarterback (Alex Smith ranked 29th in yards per attempt: 6.52). Kansas City made it here largely because of its plus-18 turnover differential, but playoff opponents are less likely to unravel.

10. New Orleans (11-5): By the end of the playoffs we're going to realize just how many teams were overrated, the Saints being one of them. They lost five of their past six road games, and the only victory in that stretch came by a 17-13 score over the Falcons, who in the fourth quarter had a red-zone fumble and a missed field-goal attempt. Drew Brees is a different quarterback at home (27 touchdowns, three interceptions) than on the road (12 touchdowns, nine interceptions). The Saints' opening and closing playoff game: at Philadelphia.

9. San Francisco (12-4): The 49ers won their last six games of the regular season, and Jim Harbaugh quickly has become one of the league's top coaches. Here come the buts: Quarterback Colin Kaepernick and the offense took a step back this season, and running back Frank Gore hasn't been nearly as effective. The Niners still are one of the league's more physical teams, but going to Green Bay is not an ideal matchup for them.

8. Cincinnati (11-5): The Bengals are a physical team. It was evident as far back as training camp when they practiced against the Falcons (and subsequently destroyed them 34-10 in an exhibition). They also have one of the top defenses in the league, a quarterback (Andy Dalton) who threw for more than 4,000 yards this season and one of the game's top receivers (A.J. Green). They'll beat San Diego in the wild-card game, but an average running game and Dalton's tendency to throw interceptions will prevent them from getting any further.

7. Philadelphia (10-6): There are several strong candidates for coach of the year. But who did more than Chip Kelly? He implemented his controlled-chaos offense from Oregon, overhauled Philly's nutritional and conditioning programs and delicately handled the Michael Vick-Nick Foles situation until settling on the latter. The Eagles went 7-1 down the stretch. They'll beat the Saints, but lose in the divisional playoffs to Carolina.

6. Indianapolis (11-5): The Colts looked like they might be a Super Bowl team when they won that midseason showdown against Peyton Manning and Denver. But they were kind of up and down thereafter, until an impressive late-season takedown of Kansas City. The Colts' strength: Nothing seems to faze Andrew Luck. The defense isn't great, but seems to make plays when it has to. I'm feeling a second-round rematch at Denver. Hmmm.

5. Seattle (13-3): Base on pure talent and the league's best home-field advantage, the Seahawks should win the Super Bowl. They're physical, they have the NFL's top-ranked defense and Russell Wilson is the best of the young group of quarterbacks. But for some reason I keep looking at Pete Carroll and I think something's going to go wrong. Teams will study film of the late-season Arizona game when the Seahawks were held to 10 points and 192 yards of offense in a rare home loss. OK, it's crazy time: After a bye, the Seahawks will lose in the divisional round to … (read on).

4. Carolina (12-4): The Panthers started this season 1-3 and were 14-22 in the first 36 games under coach Ron Rivera. But Rivera decided to become a more aggressive coach after losing so many close games and that, combined with the improvement of Cam Newton, enabled them to go 11-1 in their past 12. They'll win their divisional playoff game, but lose in the conference finals to … (read on).

3. Denver (13-3): I admit it. I thought Manning was cooked. I thought Indy made the right call (and actually, given they drafted Luck, they probably did). But after 55 touchdown passes and 5,477 yards, OK, he's not cooked. Most are projecting a Denver-Seattle Super Bowl. I'm not. Manning has a tendency to not play as well in cold weather. Even his late-season great games came on the road at Houston and Oakland. Could he be at a disadvantage at home? I think so. Denver will lose at home in the AFC Championship game to … (read on).

2. Green Bay (8-7-1): Despite some success in picking games in Weekend Predictions, I seldom bet anymore because I too often fell prey to the dreaded, "I have a feeling …" But here goes: I have a feeling Green Bay is going to the Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers is back and the Packers are one of the league's mentally toughest teams, even winning games this season with No. 3 quarterback Matt Flynn. The Packers went 6-2 when Rodgers started and finished games. Even with Clay Matthews missing the wild-card game against San Francisco, I like the Packers to make an improbable run to the Super Bowl after upsets of top two seeds, Seattle and Carolina.

1. New England (12-4): This season is further illustration why Bill Belichick is the NFL's best coach. The Patriots just win. They lost all of their best receivers, including tight end Aaron Hernandez, who's in jail on murder charges. Tom Brady has lost some zip at 36, but he has one more championship run left in him. The Patriots beat Denver in November, and they'll do it again in the AFC title game, leaving us with an Old School Super Bowl in the snow: New England vs. Green Bay. And the Patriots win.