The Braves could laugh at the Phillies not long ago. All the “stupid” money spent by team owner John Middleton wasn’t amounting to much. While his Phillies played losing baseball with big payrolls, the Braves won a lot more games with less. The smart money was on the Braves to outclass the Phillies.
But now the Phillies have flipped the script. They beat the Braves in the National League Division Series the past two years. The Phillies have led the NL since May 2. They come to Truist Park this weekend with a chance to bury the Braves in the NL East.
The randomness of a short series played a part in the Phillies beating the Braves in back-to-back Octobers. But there’s nothing fluky about the Phillies this season. They are a much better team all-around than the Braves. For weeks, I kept waiting for the Phillies to fall to earth and for the Braves to take flight. It didn’t happen.
Now it’s the Braves, not the Phillies, who have a lineup filled with underperforming, high-priced hitters. Excellent starting pitching has saved the Braves. Phillies starters are even better. Braves relief pitchers have been solid. Philadelphia’s bullpen is the best in the NL.
The advantage the Braves have over the Phillies in the big picture also is shrinking.
Everybody knows the Braves are built around a core of young hitters signed to long-term contracts. But the best of the bunch, Ronald Acuña Jr., just suffered his second ACL tear (different knees). He was scuffling at the plate at the time. Acuña wasn’t himself in the year after his first surgery. If the same thing happens next year, that will make two lackluster seasons out of three for Acuña.
The long-term outlook has become cloudier for other Braves hitters, too.
Ozzie Albies never has been a great all-around player because of his free-swinging approach and inconsistent defense. Those weren’t big deals when he was hitting for power. Now he’s not doing that while not getting on base much, and his defense is below average per tracking metrics.
Matt Olson and Sean Murphy had career-best seasons after the Braves acquired them in trades and signed them to long-term extensions. Now both players are hitting below expectations. Marcell Ozuna has kept the offense afloat this season. The Braves have the option to keep him for $16 million next season, but he’ll be 34 years old.
The Phillies are an older team than the Braves. That was a drawback when their hitters were struggling. Now they have the look of a veteran group that’s performing at the expected level. And they can keep the core of the team together beyond this season.
The Phillies can retain Bryce Harper (signed through 2031) and shortstop Trae Turner (2033) until they retire. Both players are 31 years old, so there will be decline at the back end of those years. But they figure to be in peak hitting form for at least another three seasons.
Philadelphia’s best two pitchers also are signed for the long term. Aaron Nola signed a seven-year contract last winter and is having another great year. He’s 31 years old, but his durability likely is one reason why Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos made the rare move of offering him a long-term deal in free agency. Right-hander Zack Wheeler signed an extension through 2027.
The Phillies are stacked, but Braves have won six consecutive NL East titles. The Phillies still have a lot of work to do to end that streak.
A Braves sweep this weekend would leave them no more than 6½ games behind (the Braves and Phillies both were scheduled to play Thursday night). The Braves will have 74 games left after this weekend, with seven against the Phillies. We saw the Braves overcome a six-game deficit to the Mets with 59 to play in 2021 before going on to win the Series.
That run happened because of key trades and an intangible team spirit. Anthopoulos will be in the trade market this month. Re-creating the 2021 chemistry is impossible. Getting more offense from this lineup is plausible. The Braves could use it this weekend.
The Phillies will be short-handed. Harper (hamstring) and Kyle Schwarber (groin) won’t play after going on the injured list a week ago. Catcher J.T. Realmuto (knee) hasn’t played since June 9. But the Phillies have gotten good offensive production from replacements and should have the edge in pitching against the Braves.
The Braves are set to see Nola (3.43 ERA), Ranger Suarez (NL-best 2.27 ERA) and recent call-up Michael Mercado. They are scheduled to send out Max Fried (2.91 ERA), Spencer Schwellenbach (5.69 ERA), and Reynaldo Lopez (1.83 ERA with not enough innings to qualify for the lead). If recent patterns hold, then the Braves are going to need those pitchers to put up a lot of zeros to make up for weak offense.
The Braves have produced worse results as they’ve spent more money. The $233 million payroll this season is about $26 million higher than the end of last season and is just $14 million less than the Phillies. The Braves are desperately trying to squeeze out enough runs to win low-scoring games. The “stupid” money team is riding high.
Middleton made his infamous comment weeks before the Phillies signed Harper to a record $330 million contract in February 2019. Over the next three years the Phillies were 191-193 with no playoff berths. Meanwhile the Braves ran their steak of NL East titles to four, lost a National League Champion Series in seven games and won a World Series. The Braves were so far ahead of the Phillies that it seemed to be a good draw to play them in the NLDS.
The Phillies bested the Braves in October two years in a row. Now they come to town with a chance to bury them in the East. The Braves still have a realistic chance to win the division and they could go further than the Phillies in October. But the smart money is against either of those things happening.
