This is where they were in 2021 – down 0-1, facing a favored opponent on the road, Max Fried taking the ball. That Game 2 wasn’t an elimination game, but it felt no less immense. Fried worked six shutout innings in Milwaukee. The Braves won that game and the next four. On Nov. 2, Fried threw six scoreless innings in Houston. The least of that season’s playoff qualifiers became World Series champs.
Do I see such a thing happening this time? No. But I didn’t see it coming then, either. Not until those Braves went 2-0 up on L.A. in the NLCS did such a thing seem possible. That’s how postseason works. Until you’re eliminated, anything is possible.
Fried is scheduled to work Game 2 in San Diego. Game 1 was gone early. Two batters in, the Padres had all the runs they needed. The last team to qualify for October 2024 could be out soon. Or not.
MLB’s postseason, already a crap shoot, went full-blown crazy in 2022. The switch to four wild card series, as opposed to two goofy play-in games, flattened the field. Suddenly the least had as good a chance as the best – and maybe, somehow, an even better chance.
In 2022, the lesser seeds won three of the four series in the best-of-three Round 1. Last year, the lesser seeds won two of the four. Over those two years, the aggregate record of lesser seeds – in the Wild Card Round, lesser seeds never get a home game – was 10-7. Of those season’s four World Series participants, three began their ascent as road teams in Round 1.
On Tuesday, we saw more of the same. Detroit won in Houston. Kansas City won in Baltimore. The dadgum Mets won in Milwaukee. Then it was the Braves’ turn. They put two men aboard in the first. Jorge Soler, whose home runs gave the Braves a lasting lead three times in the 2021 World Series., stepped to the plate. He struck out. On the night, the Braves would strike out 15 times.
Bottom of the first: Luis Arraez, batting champ, worked the count to 3-2 against AJ Smith-Shawver, making his second big-league start of 2024. Arraez singled. Fernando Tatis hit the next pitch over the fence. The Braves lost 4-0.
The way this Round 1 underdog mojo works is for the lower seed, the road club, to get ahead and heap pressure on the home favorite. Nothing in the six-month regular season matches playoff pressure. Come October, everything is bigger. In Round 1, everything moves faster. The team that’s supposed to win can be gone in 27 hours.
The Braves missed their chance to put the Padres in immediate elimination mode. To be fair, it wasn’t the greatest of chances. The doings of Doubleheader Monday – the blown leads, the unavailability of Chris Sale, the Braves themselves facing elimination – rendered Game 1 in Petco Park the longest of long shots. Now comes Game 2. If there’s a Game 3, the burden of proof won’t fall on the Braves.
If this season ends tonight, it will be no great shock. The Braves have played without Ronald Acuna, the 2023 MVP, since April. Now they’re without Sale, soon to be the 2024 Cy Young winner. Spencer Strider and Austin Riley, 2023 All-Stars, are also absent. In the grand scheme, they did well to get this far. On paper, the Padres are the better team.
But these are the playoffs, where the better team doesn’t always, or even often, win. They’re one loss from elimination. They’re also one win from making the Padres sweat. We say again: Things change fast in October.
