At the close of business on Aug. 28, the Braves held a four-game lead over the Mets for the National League’s final wild card. As of 10 p.m. Thursday, the lead was gone. The Braves haven’t been awful – they’re 3-4 over the past eight days – but the Mets have stopped losing.
FanGraphs still assigns the Braves a 67.6% chance of claiming a wild card. Their final 22 games are against opponents with a winning percentage of .491; the Mets’ 22 will come against .509 opposition. That said, this could come down to fine margins. FanGraphs has the Braves finishing with 88.4 wins to the Mets’ 87.2.
In sum, this could be decided by one crummy game. Was Thursday’s loss to Colorado that crummy game? Playing at home with the All-Star Reynaldo Lopez starting against one of three MLB clubs already eliminated from postseason, the Braves managed one baserunner over the final seven innings. On a night when their pitchers amassed 16 strikeouts, they lost 3-1.
This isn’t the first time the Mets have gotten close. For one day in July and two in early August, they nosed a half-game ahead of the Braves. But a walk-off loss in San Diego on Aug. 25 – the Mets led 2-0 after 7-1/2 innings – dropped them to 11-12 in the month. They’ve lost once since.
The Mets – unlike, say, the Braves – hadn’t geared up for 2024. Last season’s epic fizzle began when closer Edwin Diaz tore his ACL celebrating a win in the World Baseball Classic. Come the trade deadline, they dumped Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, aging aces in whom the club invested $85 million. In 2022, the Mets won 101 games but were caught by the Braves at the wire. The 2023 Mets finished fourth in the NL East.
This season began with the Mets somewhere between rebuilding and contention. They bid adieu to manager Buck Showalter. They made a run at Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but he, like all free agents, signed with the Dodgers. Their best pitcher – Kodai Senga – got hurt in the spring and returned in July to work 5-1/3 innings against the Braves. Then he got hurt again.
Minus Senga, the Mets’ best starters have been Sean Manaea and Luis Severino, both on one-year deals. Their best player is Francisco Lindor, who was hitting .198 with an OPS of .620 on May 21 but who has become the only challenger to Shohei Ohtani as NL MVP. The Mets hit better than they pitch – ninth in runs, 15th in ERA – which makes them the anti-Braves. They are, however, something the Braves aren’t.
The Mets are the team that wasn’t waiting for October. They were 24-35 on June 2. Then they got hot, which can happen. Then they cooled, which also happens, and you figured that was it for these Metsies. But no.
They’ve won seven in a row. Three were against the White Sox, who make the Rockies look like the ‘27 Yankees, but the past three were against the Red Sox, who still harbored postseason aspirations. The Mets’ next six games are against sub-.500 teams. Then things get serious. Of their closing 16, 13 will be against the Phillies, Braves and Brewers. Nine of those 13 will come on the road.
Do I believe the Mets will finish ahead of the Braves? No. The Mets aren’t apt to stretch this seven-game streak to 14. (Even the ‘27 Yankees didn’t win 14 in a row.) The Braves pitch better and have the softer schedule. In the head-to-head games here, I’d take Sale/Lopez/Fried over Manaea/Severino/Quintana.
Atlanta is where many Mets’ seasons have come to die. Their record at Turner Field/Truist Park: 92-142. Yeah, the Miracle Mets swept the Braves in the NLCS, but 1969 was a while ago. When it matters, the Braves have owned the Mets.
It must be said, though: Nobody figured 2024 would come down to three September games against the Braves’ favorite foe. It would be especially galling if this “World Series or bust” season got busted by the Mets.
