It’s early. This being the NFL’s first 17-game season, it’s earlier than it has ever been. But of the 30 NFL teams that, as of Monday morning, had played twice, only the Jets and Dolphins have scored fewer points than the Falcons. No other team has been outscored by 49 points, which has been the Falcons’ lot under Arthur Smith.
This isn’t to say Smith is or will be a dud. Two games do not a career make. Even Frank de Boer – soccer reference – hadn’t been fired after two games. (at Crystal Palace after five, yes.) The Falcons’ next three games appear winnable, though we thought the same of their opener, which ended with them 26 points in arrears. They could get a little something going soon, and if they don’t … well, it’s a transition year.
Thing is, it’s a transition year with a quarterback who has been in place since 2008, when Smith was a 26-year-old defensive quality control coach for what’s now known as the Washington Football Team. Smith didn’t pick this quarterback. He inherited him. This QB is under contract through 2023. Per Spotrac, his cap hit for 2023 will be $43.6 million. Which means, not for the first or last time, we need to talk about Matt Ryan.
Using Pro Football Reference’s asset value as our gauge, Ryan is the best player in team history. (Mike Kenn is a distant runner-up.) Of the Falcons’ 220 regular-season and playoff games since 2008, Ryan has started 217. He’s a franchise quarterback in the fullest sense of the adjective. In 2016, he was the NFL’s MVP. When he arrived, the Falcons hadn’t had consecutive winning seasons. He steered them to five winning years in succession.
Since 2013, the Falcons have had two winning seasons. One saw them reach the Super Bowl. They’ve made the playoffs twice in eight years. To help make ends meet, the under-new-management Falcons traded their best receiver to Tennessee for two draft picks, neither a first-round choice. Ryan remains. He’s 36. He has said he wants to play until he’s 40.
After two games – small sample size! – Ryan ranks 28th in passer rating. He’s 29th in ESPN’s quarterback ratings. He’s 28th in yards per pass. In 2016, he was first, first and first.
Obvious disclaimer: It took him a year to master Kyle Shanahan’s design; once Ryan did, he presided over one of the greatest offenses the NFL has seen. He was 31 in 2016. Also, the players around him – Julio Jones, Alex Mack, Devonta Freeman, Jake Matthews, Mohamed Sanu, Ryan Schraeder, Tevin Coleman, Austin Hooper – were pretty darn good. All save Matthews are gone.
We say again: If the Falcons are indeed in rebuilding mode, it’s a bit odd to be rebuilding around a quarterback in his mid-30s. It’s not unprecedented: The Packers did it with Aaron Rodgers; the Saints did with Drew Brees. That said, neither of those two clubs has graced a Super Bowl since February 2011.
Ryan threw three interceptions in Sunday’s second half. Two were returned for touchdowns. All three were, as Smith took pains to note, tipped. Coaches shrug off tipped balls as beyond anyone’s control, but all the Buccaneers’ interceptions were tipped by Buccaneers – two at the line, one by Mike Edwards to himself. Quarterbacks are supposed to hit teammates in the hands, not defenders.
This is Ryan’s 14th NFL season. Not since his rookie year – at the time, he was the best rookie quarterback ever – has he been part of a team not expected to compete. A key reason the Falcons always thought they had a chance was because they had Ryan. But this is a different regime, and if this season ends up going the way it’s headed, there might be some thought to seeing what someone else might do.
Which brings us to Josh Rosen. He was the 10th player drafted in 2018. Three years later, he’s on his fifth(!) organization. This indicates Rosen has proved he’s not an NFL quarterback, but it says something that the Falcons, who signed him as a free agent late in camp, have already made him their backup. He’s 24. There’s a sliver of a chance that, given proper guidance, he might develop into a player.
This isn’t a call to bench Ryan. No team gives up on a season after two games. But if 0-2 becomes 2-9, would there be a need to see if Ryan could turn 2-9 into 6-11? As college coaches know, the greatest sin is losing with seniors.
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