On the night before Thanksgiving, the Hawks beat Sacramento to move to 11-7. They were 2-1 against Milwaukee, 1-1 against Philadelphia, 1-1 against Toronto and 1-0 against New Orleans. They were fourth in the Eastern Conference, first in the Southeast Division. They looked rather good.
They’re 3-8 since. They’ve had many injuries. De’Andre Hunter has returned, but Clint Capela is expected to miss at least a week. Dejounte Murray hasn’t played since Dec. 7. John Collins hasn’t played since Nov. 30. Trae Young has missed two of the past seven games. Bogdan Bogdanovic’s season debut came Dec. 2.
If three of their regular starters are healthy enough to play, that should be a good night. On Wednesday, the Hawks’ starting five against 8-20 Orlando included Young, Hunter and Capela. After 11 minutes, the Hawks trailed by 29 points. The first quarter ended with the Magic leading 50-22.
Tempting though it is to write off Wednesday’s loss as just one of those NBA things, such a thing had never happened. No Orlando team – not the Shaq/Penny crew, not Dwight Howard ringed by all those shooters – had managed 50 points in a quarter. Said coach Nate McMillan: “Just not ready to go.”
The Hawks have lost five of six. The exception was Sunday’s overtime victory over Chicago in which rookie A.J. Griffin leaped, twisted and shoveled Jalen Johnson’s inbounds pass, made with 0.5 seconds remaining, into the basket. The next night, they lost in Memphis by 25 after trailing by 34. Young didn’t play in that game; neither did Ja Morant.
To reiterate: The NBA regular season doesn’t count for much, unless you’re a fan of load management. That said …
The Hawks are 14-15. They’ve fallen behind Miami – though only Miami – in the Southeast. If the playoffs began today, they’d be back in the play-in tournament, which is where the blink-and-you-missed-it playoff stint of spring 2022 began. They’ve worked 35% of their regular season. Numbers have started to mean something.
The Hawks are 23rd in offensive efficiency, 17th in defensive efficiency. They’ve been outscored by an average of 1.8 points per game. They’re 26th in true shooting percentage, 25th in effective shooting percentage. Of their shots, 33.2% have been 3-point tries – the second-lowest figure in the league. Travis Schlenk, the architect of these Hawks, came from Golden State, which taught the world the value of 3-pointers. I’m not sure this is what he had in mind.
We can’t say Schlenk hasn’t gathered good players. Young is an All-Star. Murray was an All-Star with San Antonio. Capela led the league in rebounding two seasons ago and is third now. Collins has averaged 16.2 points and 8.3 rebounds over 5-1/3 seasons. Hunter is averaging 15.5 points, a career best. Bogdanovic can score in bunches. Griffin is a keeper. Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu are at worst rotational talents.
This should be one of the East’s better teams. Before the injuries commenced, it had that look. But injuries, as Bill Russell used to say, are as much a part of this sport as free throws. What’s strange is that the Hawks, who appeared to find their footing in the 2021 playoffs, haven’t regained it. They stepped forward. Then they stopped.
Cam Reddish was sent to the Knicks and hasn’t flourished there, either. Kevin Huerter, shed to clear a spot for Murray, is having a career year as a King. Danilo Gallinari isn’t playing for any team, having torn his ACL after being traded. Schlenk has gotten more right than wrong, but the Hawks’ many parts haven’t yet become a sustainable whole.
Which brings us, inevitably, to Rayford Trae Young. Schlenk chose to build around him, as opposed to Luka Doncic. (Whose Mavericks are 14-14, FYI.) Young is making 40.8% of his shots, 28.5% of his 3-pointers. Those are career lows. NBA players usually get better at shooting, not worse. He missed a game because what McMillan deemed “a miscommunication.” He got fined for throwing the ball into the stands in celebration of Griffin’s buzzer basket.
Young will never guard anybody, but we’ve known that all along. ESPN’s Zach Lowe presented two clips of Young giving the ball to Murray and then … standing on the perimeter to watch Murray work. There’s such a thing as floor balance, Lowe conceded, but his point was that Young without the ball is of minimal value.
Adding Murray was supposed to make Young better. Early returns are mixed. Schlenk has tweaked his creation, but the greater truth remains: This team will go only as far as Young takes it. As of Friday morning, it was a sub-.500 team.
The above is part of a regular exercise, written and curated by yours truly, available to all who register on AJC.com for our free Sports Daily newsletter. The full Buzz, which includes more opinions and extras like a weekly poll, arrives via email around 1:30 p.m. on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.
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