The 12-team College Football Playoff will have a 5+7 format. (5+7=12. I believe that’s known as math.) Give the CFP credit: In the history of sports, not many playoffs have, in their first expansion, expanded by 200%. I believe that’s known as overreach.
Then again, I’m Mr. Negative. The 5+7 could be the greatest postseason innovation since ... MLB’s one-game wild card round! (I believe that’s known as sarcasm.)
Enough snark. Let’s examine this dirty dozen, as brought to you by ESPN, NIL and Lamborghini.
· The five highest-ranked conference champs — the ranking is done by the CFP selection committee, which just contrived to omit an unbeaten conference champ — will make the playoff. The top four conference champs will be seeded Nos. 1-4 and receive Round 1 byes. So what, you’re asking, happens to No. 5?
· Such is the line of demarcation in college football that the Power 4, formerly the Power 5 until the Pac-12 collapsed, will almost certainly constitute Seeds 1-4, with one Group of 5 champ qualifying for the playoff but not, significantly, the No. 5 seed. Put a pin in this. (Thanks to the CFP’s Brett Daniels for clarification.)
· The lowest-seeded conference champ will revert to its overall seeding, surely No. 12. Long story short: The Group of 5 champ will have scant chance of playing host to a Round 1 game. Last season’s Group of 5 New Year’s Six rep was Liberty of Conference USA. The Flames faced Oregon of the then-Pac-12 in a non-playoff bowl. Oregon won 45-6. That figures to be the score of every 5-vs.-12 game
· That’s unless the committee ranks a Power 4 champ below a Group of 5 champ and hands the latter a Round 1 bye. Maybe that could have happened were SMU staying in the American Conference, but it’s bound for the ACC along with Cal and Stanford, the latter two comprising the Pacific Division of the Atlantic Coast Conference.
· The New Year’s Six — Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Peach, Rose, Sugar — will still exist, though all will now be playoff games, as opposed to who-cares bowls, and two will become semifinals played more than a week after New Year’s.
· Each of the final seven in the 5+7 will be what the NCAA Tournament dubs an at-large. From the CFP release: “There will be no limit on the number of participants from a conference.” That yelling you hear is SEC commissioner Greg Sankey: “Seven, baby! We’re getting seven!” Which could happen.
· Though it probably won’t. The Big 18 would throw a fit if Penn State doesn’t get an occasional nod. Just for the record: Of the CFP’s top 13 last season, seven were SEC teams or teams joining the SEC. And, by Sankey standards, 2023 was tepid.
· With the advent of New Year’s Six bowls, double-hosting became a thing. The Rose Bowl would be both the site of the, duh, Rose Bowl, and then, a week later, a CFP title tilt. The first site to double-host the new CFP will be the Chick-fil-A Peach. It gets a quarterfinal on New Year’s Day, and then, on MLK Day, the championship game.
· The inaugural 12-team CFP commences on Friday, Dec. 19, at a campus site. It will end Jan. 20 in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. And you thought the NBA could stretch out a postseason.
· Other new CFP rules: Alabama must get in; Georgia must get in; Florida State must never get in. These aren’t exactly written, but we’re all adults here.
· Can you imagine any scenario over the next five years in which Georgia doesn’t make it? The Bulldogs’ final CFP rankings the past seven years: 3, 5, 5, 9, 3, 1, 6 — three times in, three near-misses and the COVID-19 year. That was with Saban coaching Bama. He’s not coaching Bama now.
· Before we go, let’s face another fact. The top five conference champs will not be the five best teams. The fifth-best SEC team will be better than the Big 12 champ, which might be Utah. The fourth-best Big Ten team will be better than the ACC champ, which might be ... SMU?
The CFP tripled in size just as the Power 5 was becoming the Power 2. Expert timing this wasn’t.
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