I’d never suggest that Alabama has no chance of making the College Football Playoff. Unwritten Rule No. 1: no Bama, no CFP. I would suggest that this Alabama, having lost once and nearly twice more, appears something less than peak Crimson Tide.
A similar claim has been made over the past decade: The end of Bama is at hand! Always before, the claim has been trumped by reality. Alabama has lost 20 games over 15 seasons, winning six national titles. Since 2007, it has lost more than one regular-season game only twice – in 2010, when it was upset at South Carolina and bested by Cam Newton’s Auburn, and in 2019, when it lost to Joe Burrow’s LSU and, without Tua Tagovailoa, to Auburn.
That’s correct. Even at its relative worst, teams of championship caliber were required to topple King Crimson.
The 2022 Tide beat Texas on a field goal with 10 seconds remaining. It foiled a final Texas A&M pass from the 2-yard-line as time expired. Last week Alabama was undone by Tennessee on a field goal at 0:00 after the Tide missed a field goal try with 15 seconds left. Final score: Vols 52, Bama 49.
Let’s stipulate that Tennessee has the nation’s best offense. Still, it averaged 12.7 yards per pass and 4.7 yards per rush against the Tide, which is another way of saying the Big Orange did as it pleased. Bama took a 49-42 lead on a fumble return with 7:49 remaining. The Vols had enough nerve, skill and time to score 10 more points. Lest we forget, Georgia outscored the Tide 20-0 over the final 8:09 in Indianapolis last winter.
Another stipulation: Nobody plays defense the way defense was once played, not even Georgia. But here, just for fun, is a recounting of where Bama ranked in total defense nationally from 2008 through 2018: third, second, fifth, first, first, fifth, fifth, 12th, third, second and first.
Where it has ranked since: 20th, 32th, seventh and now 16th.
The Tide can still stop opponents, sometimes. It can no longer shut them down. It no longer overpowers its opposition by sheer weight of numbers. It still must play Mississippi State, LSU, Ole Miss and Auburn. The middle two games will come on the road. The Nov. 12 game in Oxford could determine the SEC West champ.
Alabama’s offense averages 45 points, fourth-best nationally, and 513 yards, seventh-best. But the Rebels are third nationally, trailing two service academies, in rushing. If they can run on Bama – Tennessee made 182 ground yards – they can keep Bryce Young and Jahmyr Gibbs off the field. Young saved the Tide at Texas; with Young out, Gibbs drove them past A&M. They’re two of the nation’s best players. Linebacker Will Anderson might be the nation’s best player.
It isn’t that Bama lacks talent. It’s that the talent is top-heavy. No matter what recruiting rankings might suggest, Alabama lacks its customary complement of linemen, both on offense and defense, and receivers. Its best running back played for Georgia Tech last season. One of its better receivers played against the Tide in both the SEC and CFP title games.
Think of the great backs, including Heisman winners Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry, Bama has had in this run. Think of the receivers, from Julio Jones to Heisman winner DeVonta Smith. They weren’t transfers. Georgia, the reigning champ, took no transfers this offseason. Bama took five, Tech’s Gibbs and Georgia’s Jermaine Burton among them.
From ESPN’s Stanford Steve and the Bear: Nine of Alabama’s past 15 SEC games have been decided by single digits; nine of the previous 53 were decided by single digits. The gap has narrowed.
The above is part of a regular exercise, written and collated by yours truly, available to all who register on AJC.com for our free Sports Daily newsletter. The full Bradley’s Buzz, which includes more opinions and extras like a weekly poll, arrives via email around 1:30 p.m. on Monday, Wednesday and Friday. We’d be obliged if you’d give it a try.
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