If you paid attention to the Falcons’ first exhibition game — readers, have I not yet persuaded you to pay no attention to exhibition games? — you were offered little for your time and effort. The Falcons made six first downs. They amassed 138 yards. They were docked 99 yards on 11 penalties. All who expect this team to stink were given further olfactory fuel.
One thing, though. Since Arthur Blank bought the team, he has hired and fired four coaches. None of the incoming four had been an NFL head coach. All inherited a team coming off a losing season. Two of those rookies led their first teams to the playoffs. Another started 6-1. The fourth was the Bobby Petrino experience, which lasted 13 games, whereupon he left to go coach a college team in the Ozarks.
(Even Blank and Rich McKay, then the general manager, won’t try to defend the Petrino hire. I offer this as a bit of unsolicited support: Petrino was hired to coach Michael Vick, who would never again play for him or the Falcons. He was indicted in federal court in Virginia on the day training camp began. Months earlier, after an unofficial workout in the team’s fieldhouse, Petrino told a Falcons staffer: “We’re going to average 30 points a game.” Only one NFL team — the 16-0 Patriots — averaged more than 29 points in 2007.)
Give Blank this. Three times in four tries, his new hire has improved the team’s record immediately. This doesn’t always, or even usually, happen. Bill Belichick inherited a Patriots team that was 8-8 under Pete Carroll; the 2000 Patriots were 5-11. Bill Walsh’s first batch of 49ers were 2-14, having been 2-14 under previous management.
In their last year under Dan Reeves, who was without the injured Vick until Nov. 30, the Falcons finished 5-11. In their first year under Jim Mora, they went 11-5, won the NFC South and played for the conference title. The 2007 Falcons of Petrino went 4-12. Under the fresh-faced regime of Mike Smith, Thomas Dimitroff and Matt Ryan, the 2008 team went 11-5 and made the playoffs. Smith’s final two teams went 4-12 and 6-10; Dan Quinn’s first Falcons started 5-0 and finished 8-8. The next season yielded a Super Bowl.
The Falcons are coming off three losing seasons. They’ve traded Julio Jones, maybe the greatest player in franchise history. Arthur Smith has never been a head coach. They couldn’t do much in free agency because they were capped out. Vegas has set their over/under at 7.5 wins, which isn’t quite as good as it might look. Remember, the regular season has expanded to 17 games.
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
There are, however, reasons to be semi-cheerful. Such as:
1. They’re not breaking in a quarterback. Ryan was a rookie in Year 1 under Smith/Dimitroff. He delivered a touchdown pass to Michael Jenkins on his first NFL throw. Jenkins is long gone. Ryan remains. He might never again be as good as he was under Kyle Shanahan, but the new head coach was an offensive coordinator of note with the Titans. That has to count for something.
2. Having an established quarterback could go a long way in the NFC South. Carolina’s No. 1 figures to be Sam Darnold, who couldn’t hold a job with the Jets. The Saints will choose between Jameis Winston, last seen throwing 30 interceptions for Tampa Bay, and Taysom Hill, who’s mostly a runner. The Buccaneers … well, they’ve got the best ever. But he is about to turn 70.
3. They have a bunny schedule. It’s rated the third-softest in the NFL. In their first five games, they’ll face the Eagles, Giants and Jets.
4. Defensive coordinator Dean Pees doesn’t have the toughest act to follow. Over the past decade-plus, the Falcons’ DCs have been Brian VanGorder, Mike Nolan, Richard Smith, Marquand Manuel and Jeff Ulbrich, with doses of Quinn and Raheem Morris interspersed. Any measure of stability is welcome.
5. They already fired Quinn. After 28-3 and the 4-4 start of the 2017 season, every game became a DQ referendum. Blank waited at least a year too long to change coaches, but he finally bowed to the inevitable. If nothing else, he cleared the air. Also, it’s hard to imagine Smith and Pees not marking an upgrade.
6. They have Kyle Pitts. Three years from now — maybe three months from now — we’ll be hailing him as the best player of this draft class. Think of him as a Julio Jones who’ll draw coverage from linebackers, as opposed to cornerbacks.
It was only a few years ago that McKay, speaking at a press conference, recalled how bleak the 2008 season appeared. Petrino and Vick were gone; Mike Smith hadn’t been ranked among the leading candidates to be head coach, and Dimitroff had gotten his GM job on the strength of an interview via Skype. “Nobody was picking us to do anything,” McKay said. “Even Mr. Bradley had us at 7-9.”
Over the next five seasons, the Falcons went 11-5, 9-7, 13-3, 10-6 and 13-3. Even in his guarded optimism, Mr. Bradley didn’t see that coming. The same Mr. B has a similar not-awful feeling regarding the Falcons’ latest coach Smith. Can’t do 7-9 anymore, but 8-9 sounds about right.
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