Maxwell Week 4 projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Sep 8

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
47.99AAAALaGrange83.2%28-1315Upson-LeeAAA
32.45AAAAAMaynard Jackson83.1%21-021LithoniaAAAAA
18.30AATherrell81.4%16-016TowersAA
-0.04AAAAAAForest Park94.9%34-034KIPP Atlanta CollegiateAA

Sep 9

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
91.49AAACedar Grove61.3%14-104Collins HillAAAAAAA
90.59AAAAAAAMilton54.3%21-201RoswellAAAAAA
87.99AAAAAAAValdosta63.2%18-135Warner RobinsAAAAA
85.42AAAAAALee County85.9%26-620Colquitt CountyAAAAAAA
82.05AAAAAAANorth Cobb81.6%21-615MariettaAAAAAAA
81.82AAAAAWare County60.4%20-146BenedictineAAAA
80.59AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett67.8%21-147ParkviewAAAAAAA
76.28AAAACedartown75.8%24-1311CalhounAAAAA
75.40AAAAAAWoodward Academy62.2%24-204MaristAAAAAA
74.93AAAAAAAEast Coweta54.3%27-261Sandy CreekAAA
74.65AAAAAAAMcEachern50.8%17-170NewtonAAAAAAA
72.64AAAOconee County60.9%20-146JeffersonAAAAA
72.13AAAAAASouth Paulding59.3%24-204North PauldingAAAAAAA
72.01AAAAACambridge55.9%20-173West ForsythAAAAAAA
71.31AAAAAANorth Atlanta57.3%24-213River RidgeAAAAAA
70.97AAAAAARome74.1%21-129PebblebrookAAAAAAA
70.01AAAAAAADenmark70.2%21-129HarrisonAAAAAAA
70.00AAAAAAANorcross61.1%17-134ArcherAAAAAAA
69.08AAAABainbridge75.2%24-1311ThomasvilleAAA
67.82AAAAAJones County70.4%27-189Peach CountyAAA
67.12A Division IPrince Avenue Christian79.1%28-1414Monroe AreaAAA
64.86AAAAAAGainesville90.4%28-028Clarke CentralAAAAA
63.60AAAAPerry88.0%28-721VeteransAAAAAA
63.57AAAAAABlessed Trinity93.2%28-028St. Pius XAAAAAA
63.37AAAAATucker61.0%21-165DaculaAAAAAAA
63.09AAAStephens County77.3%20-614Dawson CountyAAA
62.39AAAAACartersville91.1%28-028ColumbiaAA
61.76AAAAAAAllatoona53.5%14-131HillgroveAAAAAAA
61.42AAAAAANorth Forsyth80.6%23-716CreekviewAAAAAA
61.42AAACarver (Columbus)78.4%23-815NortheastAA
60.60AAAAHapeville Charter52.1%21-210DoughertyAAA
60.47AAACarver (Atlanta)65.0%20-137StephensonAAAA
60.29AAAAAAAPeachtree Ridge57.2%14-104Winder-BarrowAAAAA
59.97AAAABurke County81.9%26-818EvansAAAAAA
59.71AACook84.0%27-720Clinch CountyA Division II
58.78AAAAAAAWestlake95.1%33-033Southwest DeKalbAAAA
58.78A Division ISwainsboro82.6%22-616Dodge CountyAA
58.74AAAAAAACherokee55.0%20-182SequoyahAAAAAA
58.44AAAAAKell84.6%28-1315SprayberryAAAAAA
58.34AAAAAAACarrollton96.8%35-035Villa RicaAAAAA
58.11AAAAdairsville56.6%24-213CassAAAAA
57.28AAAMary Persons61.7%20-146Haralson CountyAA
56.46AARockmart82.9%28-1216DaltonAAAAA
56.45AAAAAAPaulding County59.6%20-155East PauldingAAAAAA
56.39AAAAWest Laurens67.2%19-109VidaliaAA
56.35AAAJackson57.6%14-122Union GroveAAAAA
55.64AAAAAAHabersham Central69.1%22-148Central GwinnettAAAAAAA
55.23AAAAADutchtown91.5%30-624SpaldingAAAA
55.05AAAAHampton62.6%24-204Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAA
54.96A Division IMount Pisgah Christian57.0%21-201Athens AcademyAA
54.89A Division IBleckley County84.4%25-619Schley CountyA Division II
54.80AAAAAAEtowah79.2%26-1313CentennialAAAAA
54.09AAAMorgan County53.6%23-212Hebron ChristianAAA
53.94AAAAAALovejoy82.8%27-1215South AtlantaAA
53.64AAAAADecatur51.5%21-210Greater Atlanta ChristianAAAAA
53.49A Division IWhitefield Academy62.9%19-136WesleyanAAA
53.32AAAAAEastside73.4%21-138AlcovyAAAAAA
52.50AAAAPace Academy89.2%27-027LovettAAAA
52.39AAAAAAAWalton98.4%38-038PopeAAAAAA
51.86AAAAAAAMountain View86.7%26-323Jackson CountyAAAAAA
51.74AACallaway80.3%23-716Heard CountyA Division I
51.51AAAAAHarris County57.9%21-174HowardAAAA
51.44AAAACherokee Bluff55.5%21-201Madison CountyAAAA
51.31AAAANorthwest Whitfield70.8%28-217North MurrayAA
50.88A Division IIBowdon64.6%23-185Tattnall SquareGIAA AAAA-AAA
50.50AAPierce County95.3%34-034Liberty CountyAAA
50.38A Division IDublin64.4%21-147Emanuel County InstituteA Division II
49.85A Division IIrwin County92.0%28-028Turner CountyA Division II
49.60A Division IMetter80.9%24-717Jeff DavisAA
49.01AAWashington County55.9%21-201BaldwinAAAA
48.93AAAAGriffin51.7%20-182NorthgateAAAAA
48.67A Division IIWilcox County52.6%21-201PelhamA Division I
48.54A Division IJefferson County52.4%14-140Toombs CountyAA
48.53A Division ILamar County78.8%24-1014ManchesterA Division II
48.46AAACrisp County93.2%29-029Sumter CountyAA
47.64AAAAStockbridge80.5%21-714LuellaAAAA
47.52AAAANorth Hall53.7%15-141Walnut GroveAAAA
47.11AAAGilmer50.7%21-210RinggoldAAA
47.03AALaney50.3%15-150First PresbyterianGIAA AAAA-AAA
46.79AAAACentral (Carrollton)81.1%27-1215McIntoshAAAAA
46.38GIAA AAAA-AAAMount de Sales56.8%15-141St. Anne-PacelliGIAA AAAA-AAA
46.28AAAMonroe58.4%20-146WestoverAAAA
46.23AAAAMiller Grove71.3%19-712CampbellAAAAAAA
46.14AAAAAChamblee58.0%21-201DuluthAAAAAAA
45.85AAAAAAAMeadowcreek86.7%27-720Arabia MountainAAAAA
45.65AAAAAAVeterans88.4%28-721Lakeside (Evans)AAAAAA
44.23AAAAALoganville94.8%30-030ApalacheeAAAAAA
44.05AAAAAANewnan88.6%28-622HardawayAAAA
43.89A Division IBrooks County96.9%35-035Mitchell CountyA Division II
42.66AAAAANorthside (Columbus)80.5%24-816ShawAAAA
42.54AAALumpkin County78.3%25-1312TempleA Division I
42.21AAFellowship Christian92.7%29-029St. FrancisA Division I
41.99AAAAAAEffingham County89.5%26-026Southeast BullochAAAA
41.69AAAAAHiram68.0%24-168MorrowAAAAAA
41.32AAAARiverdale74.6%26-1412DrewAAAAA
41.03AAAASonoraville81.9%26-818LaFayetteAAA
40.27AAAAAEagle's Landing68.2%21-147DiscoveryAAAAAAA
39.17AAAHephzibah67.0%21-147Tattnall CountyAA
38.84AAAAAAAOsborne69.7%20-128Lakeside (Atlanta)AAAAAA
37.71AAWorth County90.3%28-622Central (Macon)AA
36.70AAAAAChapel Hill59.7%20-146South CobbAAAAAA
36.52GIAA AABrentwood School57.0%21-183Thomas JeffersonGIAA A
36.28AABrantley County73.4%20-713Johnson (Savannah)AAA
36.19AAAAAASouth Effingham77.5%21-714Bradwell InstituteAAAAA
35.91A Division IIEarly County92.1%28-028Terrell CountyA Division II
35.58AAAAHeritage (Ringgold)91.9%29-029RidgelandAAA
35.43GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy97.3%32-032George Walton AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
34.88A Division IAthens Christian65.3%20-146Bethlehem Christian AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
34.67GIAA AAAA-AAAStratford Academy86.9%28-721Brookwood SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
34.30A Division IPepperell81.4%24-717Woodland (Cartersville)AAAAA
33.27AAAAAAAlpharetta98.2%41-041ChattahoocheeAAAAA
32.66AAAAAM.L. King55.6%18-144North SpringsAAAAA
32.44AAAAAALassiter89.9%28-028WoodstockAAAAAA
32.19A Division IITelfair County54.5%21-201Miller CountyA Division II
32.16AAPutnam County92.8%27-027Jasper CountyA Division I
32.13AAWindsor Forest59.9%15-123IslandsAAAA
31.99AABerrien87.7%28-721Lanier CountyA Division II
31.57A Division IIMontgomery County86.5%28-721Wheeler CountyA Division II
31.55AAUnion County83.5%20-020ArmucheeA Division I
31.50GIAA AAGatewood School69.4%21-147Southland AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
31.05A Division IIGreene County72.4%21-1110Wilkinson CountyA Division II
31.04AAAAWestside (Macon)94.3%34-628RutlandAA
30.84AABanks County63.7%20-146Franklin CountyAAA
30.24AAAAChestatee70.5%22-148East HallAAAA
29.56AAACoahulla Creek78.1%28-1414ChattoogaA Division I
28.10AAARichmond Academy90.8%27-027East LaurensA Division I
27.42A Division IIAtkinson County76.6%21-714Bacon CountyA Division I
25.57AAACalvary Day98.9%38-038Frederica AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
24.37AAAAAAHouston County99.9%49-049Locust GroveAAAAA
24.25AAAAANorthview55.1%19-163MidtownAAAAA
23.53GIAA AAAA-AAAWestfield School84.6%31-1417Tiftarea AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
22.70GIAA AAAA-AAABulloch Academy79.1%31-1912Trinity Christian (Dublin)GIAA AA
22.01AAAPike County62.5%20-146Randolph-ClayA Division II
21.65AAAAMcDonough91.1%24-024Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
21.65GIAA AABriarwood Academy57.3%21-192Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA A
20.58GIAA AAAA-AAARiverside Military Academy57.1%24-213Providence ChristianAA
19.98AAADouglass92.4%23-023Stone MountainAAAA
19.84GIAA AAAA-AAADeerfield-Windsor90.4%28-028Southwest Georgia AcademyGIAA AA
19.33A Division IClaxton70.4%21-138GrovesAAA
18.99A Division IIMarion County73.5%21-813HawkinsvilleA Division II
17.78AAAAAADunwoody90.9%28-028Druid HillsAAAA
17.49A Division IIWashington-Wilkes97.3%33-033Georgia Military PrepA Division II
16.88GIAA AAPiedmont Academy53.7%22-211Augusta PrepGIAA AA
10.57A Division IOglethorpe County90.7%26-026Lake Oconee AcademyA Division II
10.55A Division ISocial Circle96.8%29-029Loganville ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
8.67GIAA AACentral Fellowship Christian94.6%37-829Crawford CountyA Division I
7.14A Division IIWarren County97.1%35-035Glascock CountyA Division II
6.73GAPPS AAKing's Academy91.3%28-028Skipstone AcademyGAPPS AA
5.26A Division ITrion99.2%42-042Gordon CentralAA
3.27A Division IIChattahoochee County98.5%35-035North ClaytonAAAA
0.83GIAA AAAA-AAALakeview Academy90.4%28-028Creekside ChristianGAPPS AA
0.35AAACE Charter95.8%35-035JordanAA
-0.20AAButler92.4%26-026SavannahA Division I
-1.49GIAA AAAA-AAAStrong Rock Christian99.1%41-041WalkerAA
-1.96A Division IICentral (Talbotton)53.9%20-173Twiggs CountyA Division II
-2.10A Division IIJenkins County99.1%35-035Cross CreekAAA
-3.12GAPPS AALanier Christian86.8%26-323Rock Springs ChristianGAPPS AA
-5.34GIAA AAAA-AAAValwood School98.8%33-033Georgia ChristianGIAA AA
-10.61A Division IIPataula Charter85.2%31-1417Grace ChristianGIAA A
-16.83GAPPS AACalvary Christian98.6%41-041Flint River AcademyGIAA A
-17.17AAMcNair96.6%28-028St. Mary's AcademyGIAA AA
-20.27GAPPS AACommunity Christian90.4%14-014Notre Dame AcademyGIAA AA
-20.39GAPPS AAPinecrest Academy91.4%28-028Harvester ChristianGIAA A
-35.78AAAAClarkston98.8%34-034Cross KeysAAAAA