Maxwell Week 1 projections

These are the current Maxwell projections for this weekend.

The projections are a combination of the current Maxwell ratings and actual scoring patterns. For example, in football, scores of 0, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 10 are significantly more likely than scores such as 1, 2, 4, 5, and 11, and a score of 28 is much more likely than a score of 29.

Aside from the team information, shown below is each game’s rating, the probability of the favorite winning, the median score for each team, and the median margin of victory for the favorite.

The game rating is the rating required to win 50% of all games in an infinite round robin competition against the expected rating of the loser of the game in proportion to how often each team would win. This rating favors games with highly rated and closely matched opponents.

The median score for each team is the score that team would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated. For example, if a team’s median score is 20, then at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or less and at least 50% of the time the team would score 20 points or more. The median margin of victory is the difference between each team’s median score and thus the margin that the favorite would achieve both less than and more than at least 50% of the time if the game was infinitely repeated.

Aug 17

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
80.02AAAAAAAParkview67.6%26-206Johns CreekAAAAAA
65.15AAAAAKell75.0%24-1410Cherokee BluffAAAA

Aug 18

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
84.39AAAAAAAArcher59.3%20-164West ForsythAAAAAAA
75.28AAAAAAANewton74.6%21-129Hapeville CharterAAAA
69.80AAAAGriffin58.5%22-202OlaAAAAA
65.08AAAAAClarke Central82.2%27-1413Cedar ShoalsAAAA
64.28AAAAAANorth Forsyth82.6%27-1314North AtlantaAAAAAA
62.95AAACarver (Columbus)89.3%28-820HardawayAAAA
55.53AAAASoutheast Bulloch60.9%21-174Liberty CountyAAA
46.06A Division IIMarion County54.7%18-153ShawAAAA
35.95AARutland75.5%24-1410TowersAA
21.55GIAA AAAA-AAAPinewood Christian98.1%39-039Robert Toombs AcademyGIAA A

Aug 19

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
95.88AAAAAWarner Robins60.0%22-202Lee CountyAAAAAA
89.80AAAAAAANorth Cobb65.7%23-185WestlakeAAAAAAA
86.60AAAAAABlessed Trinity53.7%21-201CalhounAAAAA
83.78AAACedar Grove70.1%23-158BainbridgeAAAA
82.02AAAAACoffee64.9%20-146Tift CountyAAAAAA
81.67AAAAAARome66.1%22-175CreeksideAAAAA
80.59AAAAAAADacula64.7%22-175St. Pius XAAAAAA
80.51A Division IBrooks County54.6%21-210ThomasvilleAAA
80.39AAAAAWare County78.1%27-1413Appling CountyAA
79.89AAFitzgerald61.3%21-165Irwin CountyA Division I
79.71AAAAACartersville87.7%28-820CherokeeAAAAAAA
79.16AAAAAAAllatoona53.2%21-201North PauldingAAAAAAA
79.08AAAAAARoswell79.4%25-1312DenmarkAAAAAAA
78.82AAAAAAWoodward Academy57.2%21-201Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)AAAA
77.78AAAAAACreekview57.6%20-173CambridgeAAAAA
77.40AAAACedartown62.6%22-193RockmartAA
77.21AAAOconee County72.5%23-149North OconeeAAAA
75.92AAAAAJefferson74.8%23-149AlpharettaAAAAAA
75.49AAAAAAMarist89.2%28-721GainesvilleAAAAAA
75.08AAAAAAASouth Gwinnett58.6%20-173PebblebrookAAAAAAA
74.03AAAAAAAHarrison81.3%28-1414South PauldingAAAAAA
72.99AAAAAARiverwood56.7%20-182AlexanderAAAAAA
72.87AAAPeach County74.0%25-1411BaldwinAAAA
72.45AAAAAAASouth Forsyth80.0%27-1413LanierAAAAAA
72.43AAAAAAAMountain View62.4%21-174ShilohAAAAAA
71.71AAAAAAAHillgrove65.0%24-204River RidgeAAAAAA
71.24AAAACairo63.2%21-174Thomas County CentralAAAAAA
71.07AAThomson64.7%24-204Burke CountyAAAA
70.60AAAAAAALambert50.0%20-200SequoyahAAAAAA
69.84A Division IBleckley County50.8%20-200Dodge CountyAA
68.56A Division IMetter55.1%20-173SwainsboroA Division I
68.29A Division IRabun County82.7%28-1414Haralson CountyAA
68.03AAAATroup51.4%21-210Harris CountyAAAAA
67.82AAAAAFlowery Branch74.3%25-1411DecaturAAAAA
66.83AAAAWestminster (Atlanta)54.0%19-163LovettAAAA
65.42AAAAAAGlynn Academy73.6%22-148StatesboroAAAAA
64.91AAAAAAAKennesaw Mountain65.3%21-174CassAAAAA
64.85AAAMonroe Area80.7%26-1313LoganvilleAAAAA
64.83AAAStephens County67.9%23-176Habersham CentralAAAAAA
63.52AAAWhite County51.0%21-210North HallAAAA
63.38AAAAAAARichmond Hill81.6%26-1313Effingham CountyAAAAAA
62.96AAAAADalton68.6%28-217North MurrayAA
62.88AAAAAUnion Grove64.6%23-194Upson-LeeAAA
61.55AAAAAGreater Atlanta Christian77.1%26-1412MeadowcreekAAAAAAA
61.38A Division IHeard County61.2%21-192BremenAAA
60.89A Division IIMacon County71.0%23-149Whitefield AcademyA Division I
60.29AAAWesleyan75.3%22-139Mount VernonA Division I
60.27AAAHart County77.3%27-1512Elbert CountyA Division I
60.25AAAAATucker74.9%22-148Miller GroveAAAA
60.13AAAAAASprayberry67.2%22-175CampbellAAAAAAA
60.10AAAAAEastside79.7%23-1211LuellaAAAA
60.08AAAAAANew Manchester58.1%20-164Woodland (Stockbridge)AAAA
59.70AAAAAAEtowah67.4%20-146LassiterAAAAAA
59.44AAAAAWinder-Barrow78.0%25-1411ApalacheeAAAAAA
59.01AAARinggold64.3%21-156Heritage (Ringgold)AAAA
59.00AAJeff Davis76.3%24-1410Charlton CountyA Division II
58.91AAADougherty68.5%24-177WestoverAAAA
58.84A Division IIWilcox County65.5%21-174Lamar CountyA Division I
58.75AACook67.5%24-177PelhamA Division I
58.44AAAASpalding65.0%21-165Eagle's LandingAAAAA
58.32AAAANorthwest Whitfield59.3%24-213PepperellA Division I
58.28A Division IISchley County55.6%21-201Tattnall SquareGIAA AAAA-AAA
58.23A Division IITurner County71.9%27-198Worth CountyAA
58.13A Division IJefferson County68.6%22-166AquinasA Division II
57.87A Division IIBowdon55.3%20-173ManchesterA Division II
57.52AAAAAAPaulding County64.6%25-205HiramAAAAA
57.49AAAABenedictine97.1%36-630JenkinsAAAAA
56.89AAADawson County82.7%28-1414Jackson CountyAAAAAA
56.75GIAA AAAA-AAAJohn Milledge Academy91.1%31-1021Brentwood SchoolGIAA AA
56.13AAAAAAAlcovy70.3%22-148LithoniaAAAAA
56.06AAACalvary Day86.5%26-719IslandsAAAA
55.59A Division IIChristian Heritage55.5%20-182North Cobb ChristianAA
55.55AAAASonoraville60.6%21-192PickensAAA
55.21AAAAACentennial60.0%21-192WheelerAAAAAAA
55.15AAAAAAACamden County96.4%34-034ColumbiaAA
54.94AAFannin County73.5%26-1610Union CountyAA
54.94AAVidalia66.6%24-195South EffinghamAAAAAA
54.59AAAAWestside (Macon)64.8%21-147Central (Macon)AA
54.55AAAAAArabia Mountain61.0%20-146Maynard JacksonAAAAA
54.55AAAMonroe52.8%21-201Mitchell CountyA Division II
54.51A Division IIClinch County84.3%28-1315BerrienAA
54.23AAAAAGreenbrier65.6%26-206HarlemAAA
53.94AAAAAAAForsyth Central81.5%27-1314ChattahoocheeAAAAA
53.73AAACarver (Atlanta)93.4%34-826South CobbAAAAAA
53.63AAASavannah Country Day61.4%21-165Windsor ForestAA
53.14AAAAABanneker82.0%27-1413WashingtonAA
53.12AAAAAAADuluth51.6%21-201M.L. KingAAAAA
53.04AAAAAAVeterans92.0%28-622Richmond AcademyAAA
52.75AAAAMadison County75.1%22-139Franklin CountyAAA
52.67AAAHebron Christian51.6%22-211ChestateeAAAA
52.16AAWestside (Augusta)54.8%20-173HephzibahAAA
52.11AAAAAAHouston County94.5%32-626Sumter CountyAA
51.74AAAAFayette County68.1%24-186McIntoshAAAAA
51.26AAACrisp County97.4%33-033Dooly CountyA Division II
50.99AAAAANorthside (Columbus)64.5%26-215ColumbusAAA
50.29AAALaFayette54.8%21-201ChattoogaA Division I
50.08AAAAAAACentral Gwinnett77.2%23-1310DiscoveryAAAAAAA
49.78AAFellowship Christian95.7%35-728Mount Pisgah ChristianA Division I
49.54AAAAWayne County85.6%27-720Bradwell InstituteAAAAA
49.42A Division ITemple54.6%21-210Pike CountyAAA
49.30A Division ITrion62.3%21-183Gordon LeeAAA
49.09AAAAAHeritage (Conyers)54.3%20-182SalemAAA
47.63AAAAALocust Grove65.8%21-156McDonoughAAAA
47.57AAAAHampton58.0%21-174Tri-CitiesAAAAA
47.27A Division IIAtkinson County58.5%21-174Brantley CountyAA
47.10AAAMorgan County82.1%27-1413Social CircleA Division I
46.96GIAA AAAA-AAATiftarea Academy51.8%20-200Bulloch AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
46.41A Division IIMcIntosh County Academy83.1%26-1016Johnson (Savannah)AAA
46.28AAAAAAEast Paulding91.1%28-622Woodland (Cartersville)AAAAA
46.20GIAA AAAA-AAAFrederica Academy62.8%23-203Brookwood SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
45.98AATattnall County64.6%21-147ClaxtonA Division I
45.81A Division IIWashington-Wilkes87.6%30-1416East LaurensA Division I
45.40GIAA AAAA-AAAWestfield School61.3%24-204Deerfield-WindsorGIAA AAAA-AAA
45.34AAAthens Academy93.5%32-725Dade CountyA Division I
45.33AAAAHoward84.1%27-1215SouthwestAA
43.98A Division IIWheeler County53.2%20-182Georgia Military PrepA Division II
43.87AAToombs County86.0%28-1315Long CountyAAA
43.61A Division IILanier County76.3%28-1711Bacon CountyA Division I
43.12AAAWest Hall69.1%27-207East HallAAAA
42.70AALandmark Christian60.2%21-174Rockdale CountyAAAAAA
42.69AAAAAChapel Hill87.0%28-1315Stone MountainAAAA
42.68A Division IIEarly County91.1%28-721Miller CountyA Division II
42.57AAAGilmer54.0%21-201Lakeview-Ft. OglethorpeAAA
42.43A Division IITaylor County67.7%21-147Southland AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
40.93AAAAWalnut Grove78.0%21-1011Jasper CountyA Division I
40.76AAAAAAMorrow66.3%23-176Forest ParkAAAAAA
40.75A Division IIGreenville59.0%21-192SpencerAA
40.42GIAA AAAA-AAAMount de Sales86.2%28-1315Strong Rock ChristianGIAA AAAA-AAA
40.38AAEast Jackson64.2%22-175Oglethorpe CountyA Division I
39.65AAACoahulla Creek72.7%25-169Murray CountyAA
39.48A Division IIJenkins County67.2%21-147TreutlenA Division II
39.27AAAACentral (Carrollton)94.5%34-727RedanAA
38.98AAAAAADunwoody70.6%21-147North SpringsAAAAA
38.91AAAAAAWoodstock93.5%29-326OsborneAAAAAAA
38.88A Division ISt. Francis67.6%27-207Providence ChristianAA
37.38A Division IKing's Ridge Christian64.9%21-156Lakeview AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
37.01AAB.E.S.T. Academy60.8%21-201Greene CountyA Division II
36.09GIAA AAAA-AAATerrell Academy83.0%28-1414Southwest Georgia AcademyGIAA AA
34.73AAAAAMidtown80.4%23-1013KIPP Atlanta CollegiateAA
33.25A Division ICoosa56.3%21-192Southeast WhitfieldAAAA
33.04A Division IArmuchee58.9%21-174Gordon CentralAA
31.71GIAA AAPiedmont Academy62.8%26-215Trinity Christian (Dublin)GIAA AA
31.09A Division IDublin98.8%37-037Wilkinson CountyA Division II
31.03A Division IILincoln County97.0%35-035Bryan CountyA Division I
30.12AABanks County83.7%26-917Johnson (Gainesville)AAAA
30.05AAACross Creek64.2%20-146ButlerAA
30.02GIAA AAAA-AAALoganville Christian59.4%21-174Creekside ChristianGAPPS AA
30.01A Division IISeminole County77.6%21-129KendrickAA
29.85A Division IIHawkinsville81.7%27-1413PortalA Division II
29.55AAACE Charter62.6%25-214Crawford CountyA Division I
29.41GIAA AThomas Jefferson87.1%23-023St. Andrew's SchoolGIAA AAAA-AAA
29.39AAAAAALakeside (Atlanta)56.2%20-173BerkmarAAAAAAA
29.27AAALumpkin County74.6%24-1410Riverside Military AcademyGIAA AAAA-AAA
28.06A Division IIHancock Central87.6%27-720Glenn HillsAA
27.81AAJosey69.8%22-148SavannahA Division I
27.60GIAA AAAA-AAABethlehem Christian Academy71.2%27-198Augusta PrepGIAA AA
26.98GAPPS AACalvary Christian66.7%23-176Cherokee ChristianGAPPS AA
20.19AAAAAAAPeachtree Ridge99.5%41-041SeckingerAAAA
19.11AAAAANorthview96.1%34-034McNairAA
17.75GIAA AFlint River Academy61.2%21-183Georgia ChristianGIAA AA
15.35GIAA AACentral Fellowship Christian94.6%30-030Rock Springs ChristianGAPPS AA
13.89A Division IIWarren County99.4%41-041Glascock CountyA Division II
11.05GIAA AAAA-AAAHeritage (Newnan)97.5%35-035St. Mary's AcademyGIAA AA
7.13GIAA AHarvester Christian68.4%27-207Lanier ChristianGAPPS AA
6.11GIAA AAAA-AAAGeorge Walton Academy99.5%42-042Lake Oconee AcademyA Division II
-1.14GAPPS AAPinecrest Academy98.1%35-035Notre Dame AcademyGIAA AA
-7.12A Division IScreven County99.9%44-044GSICA Division II
-10.33A Division IIBaconton Charter97.0%34-034Grace ChristianGIAA A

Aug 20

Favorite Underdog
Rating Class Team Pct Median Scores Median Margin Team Class
89.14AAAAAAAMill Creek67.6%23-176WaltonAAAAAAA
88.59AAAAAAAGrayson77.9%27-1413MariettaAAAAAAA
86.29AAAAAAANorth Gwinnett68.7%25-187McEachernAAAAAAA
84.07AAAAAAABrookwood64.4%22-175NorcrossAAAAAAA
80.03AAAAAANorthside (Warner Robins)56.5%23-212Jones CountyAAAAA
76.13AAAAAAAEast Coweta65.3%21-165Starr's MillAAAA
74.65AAASandy Creek61.0%24-213NewnanAAAAAA
67.67AAAAADutchtown70.9%20-137StephensonAAAA
66.63AAAAStockbridge52.9%19-172Southwest DeKalbAAAA
65.18AANortheast61.2%21-192Mary PersonsAAA
62.48AAAAHoly Innocents70.2%22-148Pace AcademyAAAA
60.53AAAAWhitewater73.4%21-147NorthgateAAAAA
60.30AAAAAADouglas County86.9%28-1315Lithia SpringsAAAAA
59.00AAAAAALovejoy87.1%28-1018Mundy's MillAAAAAA
52.81AAAAAMays85.6%28-1414DouglassAAA
38.52AAAAAAJonesboro97.6%33-033Mount Zion (Jonesboro)AAAA
29.41AAAARiverdale99.3%36-036North ClaytonAAAA