Maxwell playoff projections heading into Quarterfinals

August 20, 2021 - Kennesaw, Ga: Buford wide receiver Tobi Olawale (4) celebrates his receiving touchdown with running back Victor Venn (6) during the second half against North Cobb at North Cobb high school Friday, August 20, 2021 in Kennesaw, Ga.. Buford won 35-27. JASON GETZ FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION
Caption
August 20, 2021 - Kennesaw, Ga: Buford wide receiver Tobi Olawale (4) celebrates his receiving touchdown with running back Victor Venn (6) during the second half against North Cobb at North Cobb high school Friday, August 20, 2021 in Kennesaw, Ga.. Buford won 35-27. JASON GETZ FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL-CONSTITUTION

Credit: Jason Getz

Credit: Jason Getz

Below are the current Maxwell Ratings’ playoff projections for each class in the GHSA.

The Maxwell Ratings playoff projections are based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the 2021 season. The simulation completed 1,000,000 iterations.

While the Maxwell Ratings reflect each team’s strength, the simulation highlights the impact of the season’s structure as defined by the games, region alignments, and playoff brackets.

Although regions may use different criteria, in the simulation all standings were determined by 1) region record, 2) head to head, 3) point differential, 4) classification record, and 5) random tie breaker.

Class AAAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Collins Hill#1 (GHSA 8-AAAAAAA)11-0109.9984.814.77970,475.50938,780.60856,542.450.17
Mill Creek#2 (GHSA 8-AAAAAAA)11-192.9897.573.00578,598.90366,668.1356,640.3716.66
Brookwood#1 (GHSA 4-AAAAAAA)10-289.5096.773.01668,480.46306,953.1735,548.8927.13
Milton#1 (GHSA 5-AAAAAAA)11-189.3497.852.68421,401.10232,321.2126,555.8336.66
Roswell#2 (GHSA 5-AAAAAAA)10-283.5997.572.58547,092.7227,583.388,595.38115.34
Walton#3 (GHSA 3-AAAAAAA)8-384.6998.602.43331,519.5494,057.497,238.95137.14
Grayson#2 (GHSA 4-AAAAAAA)9-382.0297.802.48452,907.2819,609.995,359.37185.59
Lowndes#1 (GHSA 1-AAAAAAA)10-281.0497.592.0529,524.5014,026.043,518.76283.19

Class AAAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Buford#1 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA)11-196.8682.404.04766,997.72673,839.92600,689.910.66
Hughes#1 (GHSA 4-AAAAAA)11-182.2581.613.39714,658.79544,637.80132,478.876.55
Lee County#1 (GHSA 1-AAAAAA)11-186.9887.092.51233,002.28160,203.13115,482.727.66
Westlake#2 (GHSA 4-AAAAAA)10-282.1186.302.70544,239.3196,088.6257,258.9316.46
Carrollton#2 (GHSA 5-AAAAAA)11-180.6486.702.56455,760.6969,868.3338,768.7424.79
Johns Creek#4 (GHSA 7-AAAAAA)9-374.8783.672.76561,401.13178,529.2422,503.7643.44
Northside (Warner Robins)#2 (GHSA 1-AAAAAA)8-375.6484.322.47285,341.21165,430.6822,464.8643.51
Dacula#2 (GHSA 8-AAAAAA)8-471.8283.792.56438,598.87111,402.2810,352.2195.60

Class AAAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Warner Robins#2 (GHSA 1-AAAAA)11-191.4878.564.13931,596.50684,304.23517,971.620.93
Calhoun#2 (GHSA 7-AAAAA)10-284.2177.473.92909,425.33741,381.49272,624.502.67
Creekside#2 (GHSA 3-AAAAA)10-284.0981.463.36897,540.23295,091.94169,087.424.91
Blessed Trinity#3 (GHSA 7-AAAAA)8-474.2681.173.08830,774.86215,698.2434,404.0328.07
Jones County#1 (GHSA 4-AAAAA)10-268.8385.022.0868,403.5013,611.292,762.12361.04
Clarke Central#1 (GHSA 8-AAAAA)10-264.0882.412.1290,574.6728,176.861,596.05625.55
Whitewater#1 (GHSA 2-AAAAA)11-165.0984.852.11102,459.776,992.541,015.70983.54
Villa Rica#1 (GHSA 6-AAAAA)9-260.0782.222.18169,225.1414,743.40538.561,855.80

Class AAAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Benedictine#1 (GHSA 3-AAAA)10-293.5476.594.30837,313.37774,903.34685,726.550.46
Carver (Columbus)#1 (GHSA 2-AAAA)10-177.2778.933.36833,675.95437,341.2693,404.069.71
Marist#1 (GHSA 6-AAAA)10-179.9682.992.35162,686.63115,102.5269,195.9813.45
Perry#1 (GHSA 4-AAAA)11-176.8081.202.86521,576.25282,818.9958,211.2916.18
Cedartown#1 (GHSA 7-AAAA)10-176.0881.412.78478,423.75249,814.5148,588.8119.58
North Oconee#1 (GHSA 8-AAAA)9-373.4481.362.65556,139.0866,203.5627,109.1635.89
Bainbridge#1 (GHSA 1-AAAA)8-371.5781.762.50443,860.9243,790.5815,635.3162.96
Dougherty#3 (GHSA 1-AAAA)10-264.9282.382.20166,324.0530,025.242,128.84468.74

Class AAA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Pierce County#1 (GHSA 1-AAA)10-273.0567.963.45682,190.16495,430.60268,898.352.72
Thomson#1 (GHSA 4-AAA)11-072.7470.473.05559,850.34312,068.90182,248.584.49
Crisp County#1 (GHSA 2-AAA)9-371.1070.762.90516,921.35246,597.99132,448.156.55
Appling County#2 (GHSA 1-AAA)11-171.7571.882.78440,149.66218,995.46121,742.617.21
Cedar Grove#1 (GHSA 5-AAA)9-370.5370.952.82483,078.65222,337.64115,811.517.63
Burke County#2 (GHSA 4-AAA)9-266.8769.742.83563,894.06198,779.7471,695.6812.95
Peach County#2 (GHSA 2-AAA)8-367.7370.832.56317,809.84175,884.8667,677.3513.78
Carver (Atlanta)#2 (GHSA 5-AAA)8-264.7470.312.61436,105.94129,904.8139,477.7724.33

Class AA

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Rabun County#1 (GHSA 8-AA)11-176.1767.483.36522,687.27476,628.12365,239.061.74
Thomasville#1 (GHSA 1-AA)11-175.4167.853.23477,312.73431,658.12323,807.252.09
Fitzgerald#2 (GHSA 1-AA)10-269.1866.523.47781,005.47511,067.52181,152.544.52
Swainsboro#1 (GHSA 2-AA)10-263.6967.972.85554,949.76241,379.4155,966.2716.87
Northeast#2 (GHSA 3-AA)9-362.8669.042.65445,050.24171,427.0137,113.4625.94
Callaway#2 (GHSA 5-AA)9-259.3167.792.74647,526.4169,921.5822,238.3243.97
Putnam County#1 (GHSA 4-AA)12-057.6468.932.31218,994.5376,126.0610,389.0695.26
South Atlanta#1 (GHSA 6-AA)11-153.2667.982.38352,473.5921,792.184,094.05243.26

Class A Public

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Metter#1 (GHSA 3-A Public)12-071.3960.454.03924,227.83654,607.53448,316.161.23
Macon County#1 (GHSA 5-A Public)11-066.5863.033.21531,664.83477,512.17201,254.073.97
Brooks County#2 (GHSA 2-A Public)9-265.8362.853.43928,157.68327,981.80175,220.624.71
Irwin County#1 (GHSA 2-A Public)10-265.5363.463.05468,335.17414,918.81162,681.845.15
Manchester#4 (GHSA 5-A Public)7-449.7963.772.58515,801.1256,997.965,412.55183.76
Wilcox County#1 (GHSA 4-A Public)9-348.2663.292.54484,198.8850,571.064,086.28243.72
Turner County#3 (GHSA 2-A Public)6-651.6767.902.0975,772.1713,389.952,617.95380.98
Warren County#2 (GHSA 7-A Public)9-344.6267.322.0871,842.324,020.72410.522,434.96

Class A Private

Playoff Projections by Team

Each team is shown with its region, rating, the number of times making it to the finals, and the number of times of winning the state championship along with the associated odds.

Team Region Rec Rating Draw Depth Semi Finals Champ Odds
Trinity Christian (Sharpsburg)#1 (GHSA 4-A Private)11-089.0666.844.65987,450.52884,518.72780,981.660.28
Prince Avenue Christian#1 (GHSA 8-A Private)10-172.6375.173.41863,286.89470,190.0178,952.7011.67
Calvary Day#1 (GHSA 3-A Private)12-073.2475.903.30777,650.71440,613.6678,003.1611.82
Eagle's Landing Christian#1 (GHSA 2-A Private)5-672.7277.182.95792,912.54104,870.5854,582.2617.32
Fellowship Christian#1 (GHSA 6-A Private)11-162.8678.232.29222,349.2965,224.764,338.80229.48
Holy Innocents#1 (GHSA 5-A Private)11-161.5979.312.22207,087.469,106.262,095.23476.27
First Presbyterian#1 (GHSA 1-A Private)10-257.3678.112.16136,713.1123,971.57898.291,112.23
Darlington#1 (GHSA 7-A Private)11-152.8779.092.0112,549.481,504.44147.906,760.10

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