The Maxwell Playoff Projections simulate the playoffs 1 million times and breaks down where each team will finish
According to the Projections, top-ranked Calvary Day and No. 2 Cedar Grove are favored to advance to the state championship game 864,776 times out of 1,000,000.
Calvary Day shows up in the finals 744,768.15 times, and Cedar Grove 120,008.30 times. This means the Maxwell Projections favor Calvary Day over Cedar Grove in a possible semifinals matchup. Each are on the left-hand side of the bracket, and if each wins quarterfinals matchups Friday, they will meet in the semifinals.
But that’s the computer. On Friday, it’s on the field.
Cedar Grove will face a drive down I-75 to face a quarterfinals matchup against No. 3 Mary Persons in Forsyth, just north of Macon, for the first meeting between the programs on the top-left side of the bracket.
Mary Persons has a chance to advance to the semifinals for the first time since it since back-to-back seasons in 2016 and 2017. Before then, the Bulldogs hadn’t advanced to the semifinals since 1998.
Cedar Grove has been a playoff stalwart since a quarterfinals appearance in 2010. The Saints advanced to the semifinals in 2015, then won the program’s first state title in 2016. Cedar Grove won back-to-back titles in 2018 and 2019 and then won its fourth title in 2021. The Saints lost to Sandy Creek in last year’s championship game.
Calvary Day has an easier path to the semifinals on the bottom-left quadrant when it plays host to unranked, but upset-minded, Wesleyan. The Wolves spent the second round upending No. 6 Stephens County 33-26 to earn the program’s quarterfinals berth. Calvary Day moved past Thomasville 49-0 to advance.
Wesleyan quarterback Ben Brown is 199-of-329 passing for 3,090 yards and 39 touchdowns while rushing for 577 yards and six touchdowns. Jamie Tremble has 54 receptions for 1,073 yards and 13 touchdowns to lead a group of 12 receivers who have at least one touchdown reception.
On the top-right side of the bracket, No. 4 Savannah Christian will travel to No. 5 Lumpkin County for a top-tier quarterfinals matchup. Savannah Christian sophomore quarterback Blaise Thomas is 91-of-139 passing for 1,671 yards and 13 touchdowns, but the combination of junior backs Zo Smalls and Kenry Wall is formidable.
Smalls has 189 carries for 1,394 yards and 25 touchdowns; Wall has 71 carries for 843 yards and 11 touchdowns. David Bucey leads receivers with 41 receptions for 606 yards and six touchdowns, but Wall, a dual offensive threat, has 18 receptions for 462 yards and five touchdown receptions.
Lumpkin County quarterback Cal Faulkner is 113-of-164 passing for 1,372 yards and 15 touchdowns to lead a potent Indians offense. Faulkner has rushed 145 times for 846 yards and 16 touchdowns behind senior Mason Sullens, who has 288 carries for 2,000 yards and 31 touchdowns.
On the bottom-right of the bracket, Monroe Area will travel to No. 9 Carver-Columbus in a toss-up contest. Quarterback Dylan Hamby has passed for 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns to lead the Purple Hurricanes offense. Darrion Manuel has 202 carries for 1,592 yards and 13 touchdowns. Seven receivers combine for 12 touchdown receptions. Carver-Columbus is has been to at least the quarterfinals each year since 2020, with a finals loss in 2021 (4A). The Tigers are coming off an 8-7 victory against Upson-Lee.
Class 3A quarterfinal schedule
R5 #1 No. 2 Cedar Grove at R2 #1 No. 3 Mary Persons
R7 #2 Wesleyan at R3 #1 No. 1 Calvary Day
R3 #2 No. 4 Savannah Christian at R7 #1 No. 5 Lumpkin County
R8 #3 Monroe Area at R1 #1 No. 9 Carver-Columbus
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