The foundation of great preparation for your fantasy football season is determining the players you can draft later and yet still reap a solid value (sleepers) and/or the players you shouldn't draft at all (busts).
Being able to discern the two will make all the difference in establishing a championship DNA for your fantasy squad.
Here are my sleepers and busts for the 2016 fantasy football season:
SLEEPERS
QB Eli Manning, Giants
Not only is Eli officially the best Manning in the NFL, he's one of only four QBs to throw at least 30 TD passes in each of the last two seasons (some guys named Rodgers, Brees and Brady are the others). His fantasy price tag will be significantly cheaper than those fellas, plus the Giants' passing attack is loaded, without a pesky running game to interfere.
RB Jay Ajayi, Dolphins
The addition of Arian Foster hurt Ajayi's value just enough to make him a sleeper. If Foster plays eight games, I'll be surprised.
RB Matt Jones, Redskins
A season in which Jones gains 1,200 total yards and scores eight TDs is at the low end of my expectations.
RB Tevin Coleman, Falcons
Coleman is a superior player to Devonta Freeman in every single way. He'll be the Falcons' starter by season's end.
RB Duke Johnson, Browns
There's already PPR value here _ he caught 61 balls in his rookie season. But I believe he'll jump a level this year, finishing with at least 1,600 total yards, 10 TDs and 75 receptions.
WR Travis Benjamin, Chargers
Benjamin's 65.1 percent success rate on go routes trails only DeSean Jackson (74.6), Odell Beckham (74.3), Antonio Brown (73.3) and Dez Bryant (67.2).
WR Randall Cobb, Packers
The return of Jordy Nelson will see Cobb facing off against the oppositions' second- and third-best cornerbacks once again.
WR Golden Tate, Lions
Thanks to Calvin Johnson's retirement, the perfect union of opportunity and volume could make Tate a PPR superstar.
WR Sterling Shepard, N.Y. Giants
Shepard is replacing Rueben Randle, who had 57 catches for 797 yards and eight TDs last year. Shepard will eclipse each mark.
TE Eric Ebron, Lions
Tate isn't the only one who will take advantage of the gigantic void that Megatron's retirement will create.
BUSTS
QB Blake Bortles, Jaguars
Bortles' breakout season last year was a product of a young and talented team playing from behind most of the time and having to pass _ the Jaguars called pass 68 percent of the time _ their way back into the game. His success was about volume. I expect the Jaguars to improve, which likely means they'll rely more heavily on their running game and defense going forward.
RB Todd Gurley, Rams
This is not about whether Gurley is a good player or not (he is) or whether he will have a good season this year (he will). This is about him living up to the expectations of a top-five pick (he won't). After rushing for at least 128 yards in four of his first five games, he managed only 531 yards over his final eight games. With a rookie QB (Jared Goff) starting, he's going to face eight-man fronts almost exclusively. Plus he's zero help in PPR leagues, so draft him with last year as his ceiling and you won't be too disappointed.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys
Since 2006, there have been 23 running backs drafted in the first round. Only three ended up worthy of a first-round pick in a fantasy draft _ Gurley (2015), Doug Martin (2012) and Adrian Peterson (2007). The average production: 678 rushing yards and six TDs.
RB Devonta Freeman, Falcons
The regression already began last season. He scored only two rushing TDs over his final nine games and averaged around 3 yards per carry the second half of the season.
RB Latavius Murray, Raiders
Murray averaged only 2.2 yards per carry in the fourth quarter last season. I can't imagine this breeds confidence with the Raiders.
WR Keenan Allen, Chargers
Allen could finish the season as a top-three wideout or his season could end abruptly by an injury (see: lacerated kidney, broken collarbone and torn PCL).
WR Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
Baldwin finished 27th in targets last season, and there is no way he'll repeat his double-digit TDs.
WR Josh Gordon, Browns
Go to 7-11 if you feel like buying a lottery ticket.
TE Jordan Reed, Redskins
Reed has missed 14 games in three NFL seasons and has five documented concussions since 2011. No thank you.
D/ST Denver Broncos
No matter how good this squad ends up being, it won't return the value of where most owners draft them.
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