The Falcons are 1-3. It’s not necessarily a season-defining start but when a season stretches only 16 games, 1-3 is significant enough to create angst and anger among fans, doom and gloom in the media and second-guessing of every personnel decision made over the previous offseason.
Which leads to Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith. The Falcons’ general manager and head coach, respectively, have made all of the organization’s football decisions since 2008. They ultimately deserve the credit for every success and the blame for every failure. They took over one of sports’ most lampooned franchises and made it relevant (four playoff appearances in five seasons).
Together, Dimitroff and Smith raised the bar. But now their players are running into the bar.
The 1-3 record is the first losing first-quarter of a season the two have experienced together. (Combined record of the first games in the previous five seasons: 14-6.) In previous 1-3 starts by the Falcons, they made the playoffs only two of 12 times.
It was Dimitroff’s and Smith’s collective decision to not retain some of the team’s veterans (Tyson Clabo, the retiring Todd McClure, John Abraham, Brent Grimes, Dunta Robinson) and instead go with some younger and less expensive players who wouldn’t be nearly as taxing on the salary cap and would be at least as effective.
It wouldn’t be fair to discount the impact of the team’s injuries, particularly those to running back Steven Jackson, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, end/linebacker Kroy Biermann and cornerback Asante Samuel. But every team has unexpected personnel losses. One of New England’s best players, tight end Aaron Hernandez, is in prison and the Patriots’ set of receivers look like they were plucked off Craigslist. Yet, the Patriots are 4-0.
Great teams endure. Mediocre teams start 1-3. Right now, the Falcons are mediocre. Their offense – which ultimately will define their success because that’s where the money is spent – leads the NFL in red zone possessions (18) but has turned those into only seven touchdowns (38.9 percent, which ranks, 29th). The defense is allowing third-down conversions at a cartoonish 49 percent (27 of 55), which ranks 31st in the NFL. Their two-minute offense functions fine between the 30s, then fizzles.
These are the areas that decide games.
The Falcons also haven’t been a physical team on either side of the ball, stemming largely from line play. Offensively, in part because of Jackson’s absence but also probably a lack of confidence in the offensive line, the running game is none existent. (Their 18.8 rush attempts rank 29th in the NFL.) That has contributed to some of the red zone issues.
Four games into the season, that’s what the numbers say. Here’s what Smith and Dimitroff said in my separate conversations with the two.
Q: What's your view of being 1-3?
Dimitroff: "I'm agitated. But I remain very optimistic about the season and what we'll do as a team. In the big picture, it means a gut check for us all in the organization."
Smith: "We're disappointed. But you're 1-3 and you can't get to .500 in one game. You go through the process like always and prepare for the next opponent. We don't listen to the noise outside the building."
Q: Does the team lack physicality?
Smith: "It's a game of match-ups. Some weeks the match-ups have been in our favor and some weeks it hasn't been. The thing that bothers me the most is we're not playing as efficiently as we're capable of playing, and at times we're not playing smart football. We're not winning situational football and we're not winning the penalty battle."
Q: What has been the biggest disappointment?
Dimitroff: "Categorically, we need to score more points. We need to thrive in tough yardage situations – the red zone – and we need to stand up and thrive on third-and-long situations."
Q: Can the lack of efficiency be attributed to younger players in the lineup?
Smith: "We can't use that as an excuse. And it's not just the younger guys. It's everybody. When you get down to the red zone, you're playing in 30 yards of space (including the end zone), and you have to be more precise and we haven't been. … It's a collaborative effort. Is there a missed throw? Yes. Is there a route that was not run correctly? Yes. Is there a protection issue? Yes. It goes across the board. Are there coaching issues and (incorrect) decisions that have been made by me? Yes."
Dimitroff: "Sometimes when you put younger players in certain situations, there's going to be challenges. We hope to minimize (problems) as much as possible but realistically there are going to be mishaps along the way. It's how we respond to that that will dictate how we do in the long run."
Q: Do you second-guess any of the personnel decisions you made?
Smith: "No. You never second-guess any decision you make. When you go through the decision-making process, it's thoroughly vetted, it's a consensus thing and you move forward."
Dimitroff: "No. Not one. I have no reservations about any of the moves we made in the offseason.We kept a lot of our players because we wanted to keep the core of the team together."
Q: Is it possible some of the younger players you believed were ready for bigger roles might not have been?
Smith: "The best way to answer that is every year it's a new set of circumstances and a new dynamic on the football team. As coaches, we have to identify (players') weaknesses, accentuate their strengths and try to protect them and not put them in situations where they don't have a chance to succeed."
Dimitroff: (specifically addressing the offensive line changes): "I expected there to be some challenges as they grew together as a unit. We had challenges last year with a group that had been together for a number of years. … It's easy to hurl invectives, unfortunately for them. That said, I'm encouraged by their development."
Q: If you remain confident in some of the younger players, does that suggest they need to be coached up better?
Smith: "We haven't gotten the outcome we wanted so we have to do a better job as coaches getting them prepared to play."
Dimitroff:: "The natural order is that there's a process to developing players. I believe we have adept coaches who understand how to coach and school young payers. In the end, it's our job as a personnel staff to bring in the right players and for the coaching staff to coach them, and I believe we continue to do a sound job of doing that. At the risk of sounding cliché, it's a fine line between winning and losing and unfortunately for us the fine line has tipped away from the W column. And I'm confident this can be corrected, period."
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