The road to the College Football Playoff could be straightforward from here: If Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan keep winning, they’re in, and everyone else is out.
But there’s still plenty of time for twists, turns and detours to complicate the journey.
“Over the next two weeks or so, something unexpected will happen. It always does,” said Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl president Gary Stokan, a close observer of the playoff selection process. “It’ll be interesting.”
Through the first four years of the CFP, there hasn’t been a season in which the top four teams at this point all reached the playoff.
Last season, unbeaten Miami was ranked No. 3 and Georgia No. 7 in mid-November. But Georgia wound up in the playoff, and eventually in the national championship game, while Miami wound up with no playoff berth and three losses.
In the 2016 season, Michigan was No. 3 at this point but didn’t make the playoff. In 2015, Ohio State and Notre Dame were in the top four at this point, but both missed the playoff. And in the playoff’s inaugural season of 2014, Mississippi State and TCU were Nos. 1 and 4, respectively, at this point, yet both failed to make the field.
So history suggests, indeed, that the playoff race is far from over.
Among the outcomes that could complicate the work of the selection committee: Notre Dame losing to Syracuse on Saturday, or Michigan losing at Ohio State on Nov. 24, or Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC Championship game on Dec. 1.
Any of those outcomes would create difficult decisions for the committee, perhaps none more difficult than this: If Georgia earns a playoff berth by upsetting Alabama, would the Crimson Tide join the Bulldogs in the four-team field, even if it meant leaving out Michigan as a one-loss Big Ten champion? Stokan, among others, thinks so.
(A one-loss non-SEC-champion Alabama got the final playoff berth over Big Ten champ Ohio State last season. But the Buckeyes had two losses at the time.)
And consider this scenario: What if Ohio State upsets Michigan next week and then wins the Big Ten Championship game to go 12-1, while Oklahoma or West Virginia wins the Big 12 with just one loss and Washington State wins the Pac-12 with one loss? How would the committee sort out those three conference champs when there might be no more than one spot available for them?
About all that’s clear at this point is that Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame will be in the playoff if they remain undefeated on Dec. 2 and that Georgia will be in the playoff if it beats its next three opponents (Massachusetts, Georgia Tech, Alabama).
On to the rest of our weekly update of the road to the playoff …
PLAYOFF MOVERS
Saturday’s biggest college football game, at least in terms of playoff rankings, will be played in a baseball stadium: No. 3 Notre Dame (10-0) vs. No. 12 Syracuse (8-2) at Yankee Stadium in New York. Notre Dame is a 10-point favorite.
Here are some other games to keep an eye on Saturday involving teams in the playoff picture to varying extents: No. 2 Clemson (10-0) at home against Duke (7-3), No. 4 Michigan (9-1) at home against Indiana (5-5), No. 6 Oklahoma (9-1) at home against Kansas (3-7), No. 8 Washington State (9-1) at home against Arizona (5-5), No. 9 West Virginia (8-1) at Oklahoma State (5-5) and No. 10 Ohio State (9-1) at Maryland (5-5).
As for No. 1 Alabama and No. 5 Georgia: They are 51- and 43-point favorites over The Citadel and Massachusetts, respectively, in mismatches the playoff committee will presumably disregard.
IF THE SEASON ENDED NOW
Based on the current CFP rankings, the playoff semifinals would pit Alabama vs. Michigan in the Cotton Bowl and Clemson vs. Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl if the season ended today.
The matchups for four other bowl games also will be set by the CFP committee, although those bowls aren’t part of the playoff this season.
Based on current rankings, those bowl matchups could line up this way (but probably won’t because stuff will happen): Washington State vs. Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, Georgia vs. Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl (which would be a rematch of last year’s CFP semifinal Rose Bowl that the Bulldogs won in double overtime), LSU vs. Central Florida in the Fiesta Bowl and West Virginia vs. Syracuse in the Peach Bowl.
ASKED AND ANSWERED
Q. What was the playoff committee’s conversation surrounding Georgia this week?
A: "Obviously their last three wins (over Florida, Kentucky and Auburn) were extremely impressive, and the bounce-back from the loss at LSU," said committee chairman Rob Mullens, the athletic director at Oregon. "We see a very competitive team. Strong defense. Offense continues to make strides. That's why the committee has them fifth."
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KEY DATES
> Nov. 20 and 27: Playoff selection committee releases weekly updated rankings.
> Dec. 2: Committee releases its final rankings, which will set the four-team playoff field.
> Dec. 29: Playoff semifinals in the Cotton and Orange bowls. | 2018-19 College football bowl schedule
> Jan. 7: National championship game at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
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