The ACC and SEC are growing. The Big 12 and Big East are in flux. More realignment is on the way. Today, the AJC sorts through some of the questions that hang over college athletics' unsettled landscape.
What were the advantages of the SEC adding Texas A&M and the ACC adding Syracuse and Pittsburgh?
With last month's moves, both leagues annexed new states to their territory. That ultimately will mean more TV revenue. By expanding to 14 members, the ACC fortified itself in uncertain times and further enhanced its standing in basketball. By adding A&M as its 13th member, the SEC picked up a school that seems a logical fit.
The SEC clearly won't stop at 13 members. Correct?
Correct. The question is whether the 14th will be added in time for next school year. Although SEC commissioner Mike Slive says he is operating under the assumption the league will have 13 members in 2012-13, he also says there is no firm date at which the number is locked in. Missouri remains in play. The school's Board of Curators will meet today and is expected to take up the issue of whether to remain in the Big 12 or pursue a possible move to the SEC.
So the ACC and SEC seem to have navigated the storm pretty well. What about other conferences?
The Pac-12, having added Colorado and Utah, decided against further expansion for now, opting against a raid that might have decimated the Big 12. The Big Ten, having added Nebraska, stayed on the sideline for the latest expansion episode, so far at least. The Big East, which lost two members last month, and the Big 12, which has lost three since last year, are actively looking to add teams and trying to hold on to their remaining members.
What schools are the Big East and Big 12 targeting?
The Big East is said to be looking at a number of candidates, including Air Force, Navy, Temple, Houston and East Carolina. The Big 12's list reportedly could include TCU, which currently is scheduled to join the Big East next year, and Brigham Young. Stay tuned.
Who or what is to blame for the chaos?
This round of upheaval was triggered when the launch of the Longhorn Network, the ESPN-operated cable channel for which Texas will be paid $300 million over the next 20 years, exacerbated past tensions about unequal revenue sharing in the Big 12. The advantages Texas would gain from the network in recruiting, exposure and finances were the breaking point for Texas A&M, shoving it out the door of the Big 12 into the open arms of the SEC. So you can spread the blame among Texas, which decided to start the network; the Big 12, which permitted it; and ESPN, which funded and facilitated it.
And then one thing led to another?
Yes, fueled by fear on the part of some schools and conferences that if they weren't proactive in realigning and expanding, a high-stakes game of musical chairs could end with them being left out in the cold.
Does expansion allow the ACC and SEC to rework their TV contracts?
Yes. The SEC will schedule negotiations this fall with CBS under a contract clause that permits reopening the deal if the league grows or shrinks. Similarly, the SEC plans to exercise a "look-in" provision in its ESPN contract that permits a review of the deal as circumstances change. And the ACC plans a renegotiation with ESPN under a clause that allows the contract to be reopened if the league changes in size by two or more schools.
How much more money can the ACC and SEC expect from their TV deals?
No one knows. Under the current deals, the SEC is averaging $205 million a year and the ACC $155 million. Sports rights fees generally have increased in the short time since those contracts were signed, and college football is a particularly hot property. But it remains to be seen how much additional value the networks will attach to the viewers that will be delivered by Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Texas A&M. Both the ACC and SEC share revenue from the TV contracts equally among all members, and the leagues' goals – and expectations -- will be to generate enough additional revenue so that each school's share goes up, even after splitting the pie more ways.
Might expansion prompt the SEC to start its own cable channel, a la the Big Ten Network?
The SEC rejected the idea three years ago, but expanding into Texas dramatically increases the number of cable homes in the conference's footprint and could make a league channel more attractive and lucrative. An SEC channel would air programming not committed to ESPN, CBS or other networks, such as coaches' shows and the one game per school per year currently shown on pay-per-view. The biggest argument against the idea is that many SEC schools already are bringing in money from ancillary programming and have long-term contracts in place (Georgia's with IMG, for example).
So, as realignment rages, are there still more questions than answers?
You bet. How will expanded conferences adjust their divisions and their scheduling formats? Will some traditional rivalries be sacrificed in the new schedules? Will the number of conference games increase or stay the same? Will the limit of two BCS bowl bids per conference be increased? On and on. "They're all appropriate questions" that are sure to stir "enormous speculation," Slive said, but are not answerable yet.
