This Sweet 16 looks the way a Sweet 16 should. There’s quality, with 10 teams seeded No. 4 or high. With three double-digit seeds remaining, there’s also curiosity. There are big names — programs owning 33 of the 75 NCAA titles are represented — but it’s not a roundup of the usual suspects. For the first time since 1976, the tournament’s second week will commence without at least one from the familiar foursome of North Carolina, Duke, Kansas and Syracuse.
There’s also a powerful local angle: The SEC, which according to RPI was the nation’s seventh-best conference, has gone 7-0 and could see all three of its invited teams reach the Elite Eight. One of those — eighth-seeded Kentucky — prevailed over unbeaten Wichita State in the best game of the first week, and the same Wildcats will be featured in the marquee match of the regional semifinals. Getting down to cases:
The South is Florida's to lose. The only team that figured to block the top-ranked Gators' path to Arlington, Texas, was Kansas with a healthy Joel Embiid, and the Jayhawks didn't last long enough for the big man's back to heal. The remaining East field includes a No. 10 seed, a No. 11 and a No. 4.
Full credit to Stanford for beating Kansas and to Dayton for spilling Ohio State and Syracuse, but neither would stand a chance against Florida in the regional final. The Gators’ bigger test will come against UCLA, which scores better than it defends and does its best work on the perimeter. Florida is where it is because it guards people everywhere, but especially on the perimeter. If Tony Parker, the massive sub from Miller Grove, can play as well as he did last week, the Bruins could trouble the Gators underneath. But the Gators, who start four seniors, are experts at figuring things out.
The West is almost Arizona's to lose. San Diego State defends well enough to make the top-seeded Wildcats work, but the lesson of this NCAA tournament is that teams skewed toward D — Ken Pomeroy's ratings at kenpom.com are an invaluable resource — haven't prospered. Ohio State, Cincinnati, VCU and Saint Louis had top-10 defenses and offenses not ranked in the top 100, and only the Billikens won. (And that came in overtime after North Carolina State wasted a 12-point lead.)
The other Anaheim semi is more compelling. Baylor has won 14 of 16 games and beat Creighton by 30 points in the Round of 32, and the Bluejays’ profile — better on offense than defense — mirrors Wisconsin’s. But the Badgers aren’t as dependent on one player as Creighton was on Doug McDermott, and they’re too sturdy to fall against a team that finished sixth in the Big 12. But Wisconsin has never reached a Final Four under Bo Ryan, and his latest run will end one game short.
The East is both smash and dash. Virginia against Michigan State figures to be fascinating. Neither team moves fast, and both play rock-ribbed defense. The Spartans have more talent, but the Cavaliers have a knack of frustrating gifted opposition. Michigan State is a slight Vegas favorite, but it would be no great surprise if the No. 1 seed — yes, this sounds strange — authored an upset.
It would also be no great surprise if Iowa State picked off the battered Virginia-Michigan State winner in the East final. The Cyclones lost forward Georges Niang to a broken foot Friday, but beat North Carolina on Sunday, and Iowa State is maybe the only team that could subtract a 16.7-points-per-game scorer and still muster 85 points in such a pressurized setting. If the aptly named Cyclones get Virginia (or Michigan State) playing faster than it likes, they can win such a game.
The Midwest isn't just a Bluegrass throwdown. Louisville, the 2013 NCAA champ, meets Kentucky, which beat Louisville en route to becoming the 2012 NCAA champ. In a game so difficult to handicap — are the Wildcats as bad as they looked in February or as good as they played against Wichita State? — we err on the side of the known. Kentucky has been a very good team for two weeks; Louisville has been a very good team for four months. The Cardinals should win.
But don’t be shocked if Kentucky surprises us again and lands in a regional final against — even bigger surprise! — Tennessee. The 11th-seeded Vols rank sixth overall in Pomeroy’s rankings, four spots ahead of second-seeded Michigan, and they should be able to punish the Wolverines underneath. The guess here is that Louisville will emerge from Indianapolis, but nobody should sleep on either SEC entrant.
