In a normal year, Georgia Tech’s Thursday night matchup with Virginia Tech would be an elimination game for the Yellow Jackets for bowl contention. As Georgia Tech is 3-6 with games remaining against the Hokies, Miami and Georgia, another loss would mean that a shot at a 6-6 record, bowl eligibility and the extension of the Jackets’ bowl streak would meet their end.
However, in a season that has consistently defied expectations for the Jackets, that may not be the case. At least two bowl experts are projecting a shortage of bowl-eligible teams. In that event, the NCAA may be required to exercise a rule covering that situation that permits 5-7 teams to be considered for the postseason. Hence, even if Tech trips up one more time, the Jackets could still find themselves bowling.
After this past weekend’s games, the Football Bowl Association is projecting 79 teams to finish 6-6 or better, one short of sating the nation’s demands for uninterrupted college football. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports projects a four-team shortage. It would be the first time since the rule was put into place prior to the 2012 season that a 5-7 team would qualify for a bowl game.
“Each year, we’re all pacing the halls and wringing our hands and scared to death, but you know what? For some reason it always works out,” said Wright Waters, executive director of the Football Bowl Association. “Are we panicked? No. Are we interested? Yes.”
A detail of the rule allowing 5-7 teams into the bowl party could increase Tech’s probability. If 5-7 teams are necessary (or, to use the NCAA’s definitions, teams with a minimum of five wins and a maximum of seven losses), the five teams within those parameters with the highest Academic Progress Rate scores will be in a pool for consideration.
Among teams that could finish 5-7, Tech’s APR score is seventh, followed by Virginia Tech at eighth. That includes Army (2-7) and Boston College (3-7), both of whom would need to win out to reach 5-7. The others ahead of the Jackets are Utah State (5-4), Nebraska (4-6), Vanderbilt (3-6) and Rutgers (3-6).
Tech’s chances at making it out of the pool could depend on which bowl needed a team; a bowl game partnering with the ACC and in need of a team would likely prefer Tech. Palm weighed in with perhaps a more base truth.
“A lot of it’s going to have to do with the money and TV and what they want,” he said.
A bowl game would extend Tech’s streak of consecutive bowl games to 19. At 18, Tech is tied with Georgia for the third-longest active streak in the country. It would also provide additional practice time for a young team, deliver national exposure and give the Jackets a chance at a positive finish to a disappointing season. It would also incur costs with probably not much ticket revenue to offset them.
Asked Monday about the possibility of playing in a bowl at 5-7, coach Paul Johnson said he hadn’t thought about it.
The potential shortage is an unsurprising outcome given the continued expansion of the bowl system. There are now 40 bowls, up from 35 in the 2010 season, not including the College Football Playoff championship. That’s 80 teams out of 127 that need to finish 6-6 or better.
Palm predicts that the challenge will become even more difficult with the Big Ten expanding its conference schedule to nine games starting in 2016 and eliminating games against FCS teams. At least one more bowl is scheduled to be added to the list next year.
“If you added four more bowl games, you’d have to start thinking about 4-8 teams,” Palm said.
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