Even in baseball, the weirdest of our major sports, the urge to imitate is strong. During the 2015 playoffs, Cubs president Theo Epstein said: “The only thing I know for sure is that whatever team wins the World Series, their particular style of play will be completely en vogue and trumpeted from the rooftops by the media all offseason — and in front offices — as the way to win.”
He also said: “If we win the World Series, it’s going to be a necessity for every team to develop their own core of homegrown position players.”
A year later, Epstein’s team is a champion for the first time since Roosevelt (and not Franklin) was president, and his mostly homegrown core is the envy of baseball. For the first time, we have tangible evidence that being willing to lose big in the attempt to win big — tanking, as it’s known — can yield the grand prize.
If you're the Braves, who've themselves taken the tanking trail, this is further indication that their plan isn't doomed to failure. Difference is, they've chosen to collect young arms. The Cubs loaded up on bats. (Although Jason McLeod, their scouting director, told Baseball Prospectus that was more the luck of the draft than a grand scheme.)
The Cubs’ run of draftees: Javier Baez, ninth overall in 2011 (this pick was made before Epstein and McLeod were in place); Albert Almora Jr., sixth overall in 2012; Kris Bryant, second overall in 2013; and Kyle Schwarber, fourth overall in 2014. In order, those would become the co-MVP of the 2016 NLCS; the scorer of the World Series-winning run; the presumptive National League MVP; and the Cubs’ leading hitter in the Series.
Under Theo and Co., the Cubs would trade away a rotation’s worth of starting pitching before various trade deadlines. They received Kyle Hendricks, who would lead the NL in ERA and start Game 7 of the Series, from Texas in 2012 in a deal for Ryan Dempster. They got Jake Arrieta, the 2015 Cy Young winner, from Baltimore in 2013 for Scott Feldman. They plucked Addison Russell, the burgeoning shortstop, from Oakland in 2014 for Jeff Samardzija.
When all those position players began to ripen, the Cubs bought free-agent starters Jon Lester (for $155 million over six years) and John Lackey (for $32 million over two). This past offseason, they spent $184 million for Jason Heyward and $56 million for Ben Zobrist. To top it off, they traded for reliever Mike Montgomery and closer Aroldis Chapman this July.
When the Cubs started to get good, they spared no expense in the attempt to be great. We can’t yet know if the Braves, even with the move to SunTrust Park, will have that sort of financial wherewithal. They’ve said they want to buy two free-agent starting pitchers this winter, but we shouldn’t expect anyone of Lester’s profile (and net worth) to toe the slab in Cobb County.
The Braves' rebuilding commenced in October 2014; the Cubs' started three years before that. They didn't break .500 until Year 4 under Epstein. The Braves are further along than they expected, but they're not yet there.
The Braves' reasoning for stockpiling arms is that pitching is 75 percent of baseball and arms make for great currency. Trouble is, pitchers are much harder to project than hitters. That's why the trade for Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte — for Shelby Miller, an arm imported for Heyward — was a pivot point: The Braves hooked two youngish players of starting caliber without actually drafting them.
From the Cubs’ title and the Astros’ rise to contention, we’ve learned that tearing-down-to-build-up is a viable strategy. In 2013, when the Cubs lost 96 games a year after dropping 101, Epstein called losing “a function of our long-term building plan.” The Braves have lost 95 and 93 games these past two seasons. Three years on, can we expect a parade down Cobb Parkway?
As much as I admire what the Braves have done and are doing, there’s no way to make that prediction. A rebuild based on pitching figures to take longer than one built around, say, Kris Bryant. Still, given how much talent the Braves of John Coppolella and John Hart have amassed in such a short time, it would be a surprise if they’re not above .500 within a couple of years.
Even in the darkest moment of this rebuild, Coppolella found he had a fan in the Windy City. In August 2015, the Braves were swept in four games at Wrigley Field, part of a stretch that saw them lose 19 of 20. While there, Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer told his Atlanta counterpart: “We love what you’re doing, but don’t get down. We remember how it was in 2012 when we couldn’t find anybody to start a game.”
Four years later, world champs. Not saying it will absolutely happen here, but it did just happen for the Cubs, for whom we figured it could never ever happen.
