The Braves’ 10-game homestand begins with an enticing pitching matchup Tuesday as Julio Teheran faces Milwaukee’s Jimmy Nelson (4-3, 3.07 ERA), with Teheran going for his second consecutive win and first home win of the season.
Teheran has a microscopic 0.80 ERA, .185 opponents’ average in his past five starts, though just a 1-2 record in that span due to poor run support (2.1 runs per nine innings pitched). He has 30 strikeouts with nine walks in 33 2/3 innings in those five starts and hasn’t allowed a homer in his past four starts.
Teheran averaged 109 pitches over four starts before throwing 91 pitches in 7 2/3 scoreless innings in his last start Wednesday at Pittsburgh, where he picked up his first win in a 3-1 Braves victory, which was also the first win for interim manager Brian Snitker in his second game after replacing Fredi Gonzalez.
Take a look at Teheran’s past 15 starts since Sept. 1: 3-5 record despite 2.27 ERA and .215 opponents’ average, with barely three support runs (3.03) per nine innings pitched in that span. Hey, it ain’t Jake Arrieta territory, but impressive nonetheless.
The Braves scored two or fewer runs while Teheran was in 12 of those 15 games, including his win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday when he pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings of five-hit ball with no walks.
If you are among those who still believe the won-lost record is a credible measure of a pitcher’s success, consider that Teheran had a 5.01 ERA during his seven starts he made before his beginning his current run of consistent effectiveness at the beginning of September. Yet in those seven starts he had a 3-2 record – as many wins as he’s collected while posting that 2.27 ERA in his past 15 starts.
Won-lost records for a career are generally a pretty good indicator of a pitcher’s performance, but not at all for a particular stretch – not for a season or two, much less for a shorter period. The won-lost record for measuring performance in a period such as that is all but useless.
So much is about run support, plain and simple. Teheran had 5.01 runs per nine innings in those seven starts through Aug. 30, and has had 3.03 per nine in the past 15 starts. The Braves scored six, three and five runs while he was in the game in his three wins in August 2015; they’ve scored more than two runs while he’s been in the game in just three of his 15 starts since then.
Nelson’s only start against the Braves came exactly one year ago today, when he gave up two runs, five hits and five walks in 5 2/3 innings of a loss at Turner Field.
Nelson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of nine starts this season, and lasted at least six innings in six of those seven. In his past 25 starts going back to late June, Nelson is 12-8 with a 3.42 ERA and .227 opponents’ average, and team is 15-10 in those starts.
Ender Inciarte is 3-for-5 with a homer against him, the only Braves player with a home run, and only one with more than one hit or three official at-bats against him.
Against the Brewers, Teheran is 2-2 with a 2.04 ERA in five career starts, including 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA and .128 opponents’ average in his past three. He had 24 strikeouts with six walks in 23 innings over those past three, including eight strikeouts in each game.
Against Teheran, Jonathan Lucroy is 4-for-8, while Scooter Gennett is 3-for-12 and Ryan Braun is 1-for-9.
Teheran got his first win last week at Pittsburgh, now seeks his first home win. He’s 0-2 with a 3.29 ERA and .259 opponents’ average and .407 opponents’ slugging percentage in five home starts, compared to a 2.20 ERA and .170 OA and .270 opponents’ slugging in four road starts.
