The Braves were 44-41 after 85 games in their worst-to-first season of 1991. They stood 4 1/2 games behind the division-leading Dodgers, having just passed the Reds for second place.
Nearly a quarter of a century later, the Braves are 42-43 after 85 games. They trail the first-place Nationals by 4 1/2 games and the Mets by 1 1/2 games for second.
Even as I note the above, I offer a disclaimer: I do not — repeat, do not — expect these Braves to win their division and play in Game 7 of the World Series. The ’91 Braves had the league’s MVP and batting champion (Terry Pendleton), the Cy Young winner (Tom Glavine) and the kid pitchers Steve Avery and John Smoltz going a collective 22-5 over the season’s second half.
Even in May and June ’91, you could see those Braves coming. They sagged before the All-Star break but were 55-28 thereafter. They won 94 games on merit, finishing second in the National League in runs and third in ERA. They became a harmonic convergence of young pitching and retreads, and this city fell in love with a franchise it had all but forgotten.
I do not — repeat, do not — believe these Braves are a team of that transformative ilk. I’m not sure even John Hart, in his heart of hearts, saw his cobbled-together creation hanging so close for so long. We can all agree that these Braves have done well to get where they are, but here’s the reality: Had they held a 4-0 lead in Milwaukee on Wednesday, they would have been above .500 for the first time since June 1.
To expect much more would be almost piggish. But then you check the standings and you think, “What if?”
As of Wednesday morning, FanGraphs calculated the Braves’ chance of reaching the postseason at 3.8 percent. (The Padres, who were eight games below .500, were given a 4 percent chance.) Playoff projections are, duh, a function of numerical projection, and not much about the Braves’ numbers is noteworthy.
They’ve struck out less than any other NL team; they’ve also hit the fewest home runs. They’ve compiled the league’s second-best average with runners in scoring position but entered play Wednesday ranked 10th among 15 teams in runs. (Freddie Freeman’s absence is deeply felt.) Even as the pitching — especially the departure-lounge bullpen, Wednesday’s lapse notwithstanding — has stabilized, the Braves are still only eighth in ERA.
To eyeball these Braves is to see not much above the ordinary. They have the minimum number of All-Stars, meaning one. Their best everyday player is on the disabled list. Their catcher of the future was demoted. Their starting third baseman and center fielder are journeymen, although Jose Uribe and Cameron Maybin have been excellent here. Their starting left fielder is Eury Perez, cut by the Nationals and the Yankees.
Their starting catcher and their closer are 38 and weren’t imported to fill those roles. Their best left-handed starting pitcher hasn’t worked this season. Their highest-salaried starter is Bronson Arroyo, who might never pitch for the Braves. Their rotation includes nobody over 25 and features two rookies, both of whom (Matt Wisler and Manny Banuelos) replaced other rookies (Mike Foltynewicz and Williams Perez).
There were those — that’s my hand you see raised — who believed this team was more apt to lose 100 games than to break .500, but there are advantages to diminished expectations. The Braves have been able to lose games without any hue and cry from the populace, which had been conditioned to expect losing. Given that the concept of winning was thought to have been tabled until 2017 and the opening of SunTrust Park, any victory seems a bonus.
So: Here they are, 85 games gone, not yet out of anything. And what if Freeman returns and rakes? What if Arodys Vizcaino becomes the new Jonny Venters? What if Julio Teheran channels the second-half Smoltz of ’91? I do not — repeat, do not — expect this season to yield much more than it already has, but what if it does? What if this latest collection of kids and retreads somehow gives us a finish?
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