If we begin with the premise that the Braves are not a great team – and the significant sampling size of going 41-41 after a 17-7 start screams as much – they are going to need what Ervin Santana gave them Monday: pitching dominance. Otherwise, forget October.
This team reminded us Monday that its offense is not something to celebrate. The Braves were shut out for six innings by San Diego pitcher Jason Lane, a 37-year-old converted outfielder whom Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez referred to as “Jamie Moyer without a breaking ball.”
He meant that as a compliment, although nobody is quite sure how.
But Evan Gattis led off the seventh inning with a home run, Santana struck out 11 Padres in eight shutout innings, Craig Kimbrel flattened small nations in the ninth and the Braves won 2-0.
So the second half of the season opened with the Braves going only 6-5 on an 11-game homestand against three losing teams (Philadelphia, Miami, San Diego). If you believe that’s a concern, consider they were 3-5 until the past three wins.
The common denominator to the past three wins against the Padres was strong starting pitching. That represents the Braves’ strongest hope down the stretch. Julio Teheran, the otherwise sputtering Mike Minor and Santana combined to allow six runs in 20 2/3 innings (2.61 ERA) with 22 strikeouts and one walk.
The Braves can’t rely on an offense that ranks 10th in the National League in runs, ninth in batting average and 11th in slugging percentage. They can’t rely on the bridge-to-Kimbrel portion of the bullpen. So they’re going to need greatness in the rotation if they hope to survive a battle with Washington in the National League East or even to win a wild-card berth.
“This is the fun part of the year, and you need those type of starts from everybody,” Gonzalez said. “There’s going to be some guys who can’t go eight or nine innings but hopefully they’ll give us six that keep us in the game and if that happens we can do some damage.”
If it starts with Teheran, the staff’s unquestioned ace, Santana isn’t far behind in terms of importance. He was an expensive signing, borne of sudden desperation. Starter Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy were lost for the season before the season even started, prompting the Braves, in a rare show of willingness to spend big for a sudden need, to give Santana a one-year, $14.1 million contract.
“What did we lose — two guys in three days?” Gonzalez said, after trying hard to forget. “I’m glad he was available.”
No team had given Santana the fat multi-year deal he wanted. He generally has been a talented but inconsistent pitcher, a sometimes strikeout machine whose ERA didn’t always align with his seeming skill level (three seasons with five-plus ERA during his time with the Los Angeles Angels).
This season with the Braves has been a reflection of that resume. In his first start, he opened with 20 straight strikes against the New York Mets, didn’t allow a run and gave the peasants only three hits in eight innings. Five days later against Philadelphia, he struck out 11 in just six innings. In his first six starts, he went 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 43 strikeouts (nine walks) in 40 2/3 innings.
Then came the bump. In Santana’s next three starts against St. Louis, Milwaukee and Boston, he allowed 17 earned runs and 23 hits in 17 innings. He has struggled with consistency since, but was strong last week against Miami, striking out 10 and allowing one run in 7 1/3 innings.
“I had one bad month and now I’m regrouping. I’m just trying to do what I did before,” he said.
The pitcher we saw Monday looked like the pitcher we saw early in the season.
Santana allowed five hits in eight innings. He struck out 11 (tying a career high). He faced 29 batters, didn’t walk any of them and allowed only one to reach second base.
Santana said of his slider, “It kept everybody off balance the whole game.”
“That’s about as good as you can get,” Gattis said.
Santana reportedly had similar one-year offers from Baltimore and Toronto when he signed with the Braves. He believed Atlanta gave him the best chance to succeed and pitch in the postseason. All three teams today have similar records: Braves 58-48, Baltimore 58-46, Toronto 56-50 (before Monday night’s game in Boston).
If Santana is going to be a difference-maker for the Braves, we’re about to find out.
