In the sixth inning, the Giants scored their fourth run of the game on Matt Chapman’s double off Charlie Morton.
At that moment, pessimists thought this game was over.
The statistical evidence says they have been correct more often than not this season. When the opponent scores at least four runs, the Braves hardly win.
On Independence Day, they lost to the Giants, 4-2, to drop two of three at Truist Park. Atlanta is 47-38.
Five observations:
1. On April 17, the Braves beat the Astros, 5-4, in Houston.
It is still the last time the Braves have won a game when their opponent plates at least four runs. They are 0-27 in those games since beating the Astros.
It seems unfathomable. You think they would luck into winning one of these, right? But no, they have gone two and a half months without winning when the opponent scores four or more.
“I wasn’t aware of that until you said it,” Sean Murphy said. “It’s on the offense. I think Charlie (Morton) and (Grant Holmes) gave us a chance to win, and kept us in the game. We didn’t hit the guys that we needed to.”
To take it a step further: Since the start of play on May 1, the Braves are 3-27 when they allow at least three runs. They have lost seven consecutive games when their opponent scores three or more.
On Thursday, Morton and Holmes gave Atlanta an opportunity to win the game and series. The offense scored twice in the first inning – then never again.
The Braves have lost 27 straight games when their opponent scores at least four runs.
They are without Michael Harris II and Orlando Arcia. Neither had been performing really well, but they are starters. They will provide, at the very least, a small boost.
Manager Brian Snitker said he just has to believe it’ll improve when the Braves get healthy.
“That’s how I gotta look at it. And how I believe, honestly,” he said. “As I’ve said before, every year is its own separate little thing. You don’t know what it’s going to be, and it’s different this year than it has been the last few years. It’s just something that, that’s baseball. We had chances again tonight.”
2. After the leadoff man reached in the bottom of the sixth inning, Marcell Ozuna grounded into a double play. Over his last nine games, including Thursday, he’s 4-for-31.
“Which is gonna happen,” Snitker said. “It’s not realistic to think that the guy’s not gonna (struggle). All players do. The best ones. The best teams do. The best players do. This is such a hard game that there’s gonna be things like that happening. And that’s when you hope other guys get it going.”
Snitker is correct here. Ozuna has carried the Braves all season. Now, it’s on others to step up.
Austin Riley and Jarred Kelenic have gotten hot. Ozzie Albies is heating up. But Matt Olson has struggled. Murphy isn’t quite there yet. Adam Duvall has had an encouraging homestand, but he’d slumped mightily before it. Forrest Wall and Zack Short have really scuffled at the bottom of the lineup.
The Braves just haven’t been able to sync up offensive performers this season.
“And that’s the key, when you can get ‘em all going,” Snitker said.
He paused.
Then added: “Man, if I could figure out how to do that, what the formula is.”
3. Albies smoked Logan Webb’s sinker off the right-field wall, which allowed Kelenic to go from first to third. But the throw from right field bounced away from the first baseman, and Kelenic bolted home and scored. A few batters later, Riley plated another run with a sacrifice fly.
Just like that, it was 2-0, Braves.
Then Webb did what Webb does.
He went seven innings. He didn’t surrender another run.
“He’s probably an underappreciated guy in the big leagues, how good he is and what he covers,” Snitker said. “Just watching him pitch, it’s really good. And it’s a tough ride, with his assortment, command and all that. But we had opportunities.”
In the second, Wall reached base but was caught stealing for the second out. Olson reached to lead off the fourth, but was thrown out at home on Riley’s double – and with one out, the Braves couldn’t get Riley home. They couldn’t score a man in the sixth, or a man in the seventh.
The Braves are losing these winnable games.
Is it as simple as them not getting one more big hit?
“Yeah, I think so,” Snitker said. “Get guys on, get a big hit, pierce a gap, things like that. Yeah, pretty much. It’s like, we’re not playing bad baseball or anything like that. I’ve been saying it and I’ll continue to say it: We had a run early, then we got a bunch of injuries and all that. And now, I still think we’re gonna get on one of those runs again.”
4. After the game, Morton was asked about the Braves’ woes when opponents score at least four runs. He defended his teammates.
“I’m sure there’s enough guys in there that are going through things that are tough and frustrating, so for me to sit there and be like, ‘Man, that’s really frustrating that they’re not scoring more runs,’ that’s not fair,” Morton said. “Because I know how much they work, I know how much they care and I know the quality of people in there. I just don’t think that’s fair. The only thing is that it’s frustrating because I know how good they are, and it’s frustrating for me to see some of them get upset and get down. Although, I do feel lately, the guys are in a good spot, and I felt like they were actually in a pretty good spot when everything wasn’t going our way.”
The Braves led by two runs when Heliot Ramos blasted a two-run shot off Morton in the fourth. Two batters later, Chapman homered off Morton to give the Giants the lead for good.
Morton gave up the homers on two cutters. He was trying to steal a strike with those pitches. He said he looked back and felt frustrated that the homers came on two cutters.
“It was kind of a grind, throwing strikes,” Morton said. “And that’s where the cutter usually comes into play, is when I’m having trouble throwing strikes, I can go to the cutter for a strike. Usually, they’re not looking for a cutter. It’s my worst pitch right now.”
5. Are you ready for the showdown?
The first-place Phillies have arrived in Atlanta for the first time since splitting two postseason games here last October. Now, Philadelphia enters with a nine-game lead in the division. But there’s a lot of baseball left, and the Braves can begin swinging the race over three games this weekend.
“I don’t think this is a do-or-die weekend by any stretch of the imagination,” Snitker said. “Honestly, we want to win this series coming into this weekend. It’s big, it’s a division rival. So, those are always big. So many teams in our division are right there, too. It’s a big series. It’s kind of why you play this, to get series like this.”
On Friday, Max Fried will face Aaron Nola. On Saturday, Spencer Schwellenbach goes up against Ranger Suárez and his 2.27 ERA. Reynaldo López will start Sunday’s game, on regular rest, versus Michael Mercado.
These teams last played in Philadelphia to open the season.
“An opportunity to make up a couple games,” Murphy said. “That says it all, right? It’s a big weekend. We just gotta go out and play our baseball, and see how it goes.”
Stat to know
1 - The Braves didn’t have more than one hit in any inning after the first.
Quotable
“I think any time you win a series, I think from that mental stance now where we’re at, we’re kind of looking to build on all the positives. So yeah, it’d be really good to go out and win this series. Can’t win the series, we can win tomorrow, so that’s the only game we’re focused on right now.” - Snitker on how big it would be, from a mental standpoint, to win the Phillies series
Up next
Friday’s series opener against the Phillies begins at 7:20 p.m.
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