U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney’s resounding primary defeat to a Donald Trump-backed challenger this week in Wyoming is only the latest in a string of victories by the former president’s preferred picks.
And each time a Trump-backed contender notches a major victory ahead of his likely comeback attempt, Georgia seems more like an outlier: one of the few states where Trump’s attempt to install loyalists in top offices — and oust perceived threats in the GOP ranks — was mostly rebuffed.
Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, targeted by Trump for refusing his demands to overturn the 2020 presidential election, humiliated Trump-backed challengers in May.
Two other statewide GOP incumbents also brushed aside contenders who possessed Trump’s blessing. And Republican voters rejected a pair of U.S. House candidates in June runoffs who were backed by the former president.
Even the two victorious Trump-endorsed contenders in competitive races arguably didn’t need his support.
Herschel Walker scared most would-be rivals out of the U.S. Senate contest thanks to his sky-high name recognition; Burt Jones dug deep into his wallet to outspend his top rival on the way to the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor.
So why was Georgia different? Pundits, professors and politicians offered some insight.
Credit: TNS
Credit: TNS
NAME BRAND. Never underestimate the power of incumbency in a Georgia Republican race. Not only does it give candidates that “I” beside their name on the ballot, they also can tout a record.
Jason Shepherd, a professor and former Cobb County GOP chair, noted that in 2006 Democrats Thurbert Baker and Michael Thurmond were reelected to statewide posts even as Republicans swept every other office.
“It also explains why both Raffensperger and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene both won their primaries in the 14th District,” Shepherd said of voters in the northwest Georgia territory who backed both a Trump nemesis and his staunch ally in the same election.
Case in point: All four GOP incumbents who faced a Trump-fueled opponent sailed to victory.
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
Credit: Hyosub Shin/AJC
NO PUSHBACK. Even as Trump heaped scorn on Kemp, confiding to a crowd of thousands of supporters he’d rather Stacey Abrams win the seat, the governor consistently avoided punching back.
“I’ve never once said a bad word about Trump” was Kemp’s most common refrain, and other Republicans adopted the same strategy. They soaked up his abuse without lashing back to avoid antagonizing his base or overshadowing their own message.
“Some others might want to poke the bear,” state Senate Majority Leader Mike Dugan said. “But Gov. Kemp has just tried to govern the state.”
Media strategist Rick Dent said Kemp and others resisted the temptation to be “Trump flamethrowers to incite voters” even as they were pummeled by the former president’s attacks.
Shepherd had a similar analysis.
“Georgia’s incumbents weren’t seen as single-mindedly anti-Trump,” Shepherd said. “Trump may have been very much anti-Kemp/Chris Carr/Brad Raffensperger, but none of them went after Trump in their campaigns.”
Credit: robert.andres@ajc.com
Credit: robert.andres@ajc.com
A DIFFERENT FOCUS. Democratic strategist Fred Hicks said Kemp “successfully avoided nationalizing the Republican primary” by focusing attention on his policies.
That meant Kemp crisscrossed the state promoting pro-gun expansions and anti-abortion measures to die-hard Trump supporters even as he appealed to more moderate voters by touting new job projects.
He and other down-ticket candidates tried to unite Republicans around a common enemy. For them, it was the specter of Abrams as governor rather than turn the race into a referendum on Trump.
Even the Trump-backed candidates who won “only touched” on the former president’s endorsement, rather than making it a pillar of their campaigns, said Shepherd, the former Cobb GOP chair.
“In fact, I don’t remember hearing a single ad by Herschel Walker that mentioned Donald Trump,” Shepherd said. “Burt Jones did mention Trump in his ads, but it was mentioned as a value-add and not the whole reason he was running.”
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
INDEPENDENT APPEAL. The victorious candidates also tapped into Georgia’s maverick streak.
“I can’t tell you how many people came up to me and said, ‘I love Trump, but he shouldn’t try to tell me how to vote,’ ” said Dugan, the GOP Senate leader. “Georgia is still a state where we don’t like when people tell us what to do.”
Dent noted that a bloc of independent and left-leaning voters who previously cast ballots in Democratic primaries switched this year to GOP contests, with some saying they did so as a protest against pro-Trump candidates who would have heeded his calls to reverse the outcome.
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
Credit: HYOSUB SHIN / AJC
THE UNICORN STATE. As Georgia becomes more politically divided, the state also becomes harder to predict. After epic Democratic wins two years ago, polls indicate Republicans could reverse some of those gains in November.
And the battle over 2020 is still shaping the midterm of 2022.
“Georgia is unique in the electoral landscape right now because of the 2020 outcomes. Georgia GOP voters didn’t all buy the ‘big lie’ and ‘stolen election,’ ” said Karen Owen, a University of West Georgia political scientist.
“That’s why Kemp and Raffensperger won their primaries: GOP voters knew they held to the truth and had integrity to see the right result,” she said. “Voters respected their work and defense of democracy and saw the charade of Trump’s activities in the last two years.”
