Analysis shows surge in Asian, Hispanic voters helped Biden capture Georgia

The first day of early voting is shown well underway with these voters standing in line on Monday, Oct. 12, 2020, at the Gwinnett County Fairgrounds in Lawrenceville, Ga. JOHN AMIS FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL- CONSTITUTION
The first day of early voting is shown well underway with these voters standing in line on Monday, Oct. 12, 2020, at the Gwinnett County Fairgrounds in Lawrenceville, Ga. JOHN AMIS FOR THE ATLANTA JOURNAL- CONSTITUTION

Credit: John Amis

Credit: John Amis

A surge in voter participation among younger, more diverse voters helped fuel President-elect Joe Biden’s slim victory in Georgia, according to an analysis by the Democratic firm TargetSmart, as the increase in the share of white turnout lagged behind.

The analysis found Asian-American turnout nearly doubled when compared to the 2016 election, while Hispanic voter participation soared by 72%. Turnout among black voters increased by about 20% while white turnout grew by 16%.

Overall, the proportion of white voters who cast ballots in Georgia decreased for the third consecutive race, down from roughly 66% in 2016 to 63% this year. (Other analyses showed white voter share in 2016 was slightly lower.) Black voters made up roughly 29% of the vote, according to the review.

How Biden ended Georgia’s 24-year Republican streak

Turnout among voters under the age of 30 also increased sharply, growing from 14.4% of ballots cast to 16.2%, the analysis show. The biggest drop in electorate share came from middle-aged voters, one of President Donald Trump’s more reliable voting blocs.

“It’s the most diverse electorate in Georgia in recent history,” said Tom Bonier, the firm’s chief executive. “The youth vote share is also likely the highest we’ve seen in years.”

He conducted the review as a response to a New York Times analysis of Georgia’s vote, which he said failed to account for voters who don’t offer a description of their race. Those “unknown” voters tend to be disproportionately voters of color, and make up as many as 10% of voters in some key counties.

The review was conducted based on a trove of recently-released turnout data from the Secretary of State’s office of Georgia’s election, which resulted in Biden’s narrow win in Georgia. He leads Trump by roughly 13,000 votes amid a statewide hand recount.

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