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100 days out, Biden holds narrow Electoral College lead, analysis shows

It's Trump vs. Biden this November

Saturday marks 100 days until the historic Nov. 3 election, when the nation will decide whether to reelect President Donald Trump or choose former Vice President Joe Biden.

A new ABC News analysis shows the presumptive Democratic White House nominee with a slight Electoral College lead over Trump, with 279 electoral votes solidly or leaning Democratic. Another 72 electoral votes are rated as toss-ups, while 187 are either solid or leaning Republican.

In 2016, Trump won 306 electoral votes in his race against Hillary Clinton, also winning the Democratic strongholds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Biden could win by taking those states back, but losing any of them could put Trump either over the top or within reelection striking distance.

Credit: AJC

Supreme Court rules states can punish electoral college voters

Credit: AJC

All three states are leaning Democratic, according to the analysis.

Georgia is listed as a toss-up, as are Arizona and Florida. Texas and Ohio are listed as leaning Republican.

Election 2020 coverage

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Meanwhile, a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll shows half of Americans whose families experienced a layoff during the coronavirus pandemic now believe those jobs are lost forever.

Trump has made a strong economy and pandemic recovery a cornerstone of his reelection campaign.

Trump says there could be a second stimulus package

The new numbers represent a sharp change after initial optimism the jobs would return.

In April, 78% of those in households with a job loss thought they’d be temporary. Now 47% think that lost job is definitely or probably not coming back. That translates into roughly 10 million workers who will need to find a new employer, if not a new occupation.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported the number of new jobless claims filed last week rose from the previous week, marking the first time that number has increased since March when the coronavirus pandemic began. According to the figures, 1.4 million people filed new jobless claims last week, compared with the previous week’s 1.3 million.

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The poll is the latest sign the solid hiring of May and June, as some states lifted stay-at-home orders and the economy began to recover, may wane as the year goes on. Adding to the challenge: Many students will begin the school year online, making it harder for parents to take jobs outside their homes.

Biden outlines $700 billion economic-revival plan

On Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell promised a new round of direct coronavirus economic stimulus payments to earners below a certain income level, similar to the $1,200 checks sent in the spring. Trump is insisting on a payroll tax holiday for workers, and Democrats want billions to outfit schools and shore up local governments.