President Barack Obama is credited with harnessing the power of social media in 2008 to ignite the youth vote in a way unseen in decades. But after four bruising years of record unemployment, especially among younger Americans, many analysts say that phenomenon isn’t likely to be repeated.
Voters below the age of 30 still favor the president over GOP nominee Mitt Romney by a 2-to-1 margin, according to most polls. The question is: How many will turn out to vote this time?
“The youth vote undoubtedly will dip in 2012, but how far down it goes is going to be the question,” said Tyler Harber, a Washington-based Republican strategist and former pollster. He believes the drop will come from former Obama supporters who are disenfranchised by poor job prospects.
“The job issue affects them, but they can’t pull the lever for Mitt Romney,” he said. “So what do they do? They don’t vote.”
But that calculus misses the one unarguable fact about potential voters aged 18 to 29: Their ranks have grown dramatically in the past four years, said Michael Hais, an expert in the millennial generation. The number of millennials eligible to vote has grown by 19 million since 2008, he said.
Therefore, even if turnout among millennials declines, Obama is likely to enjoy a 10 million-vote advantage over Romney, he said.
“You can’t say this is as magical a time [for Obama as 2008],” said Hais, who with Morley Winogrod co-authored “Millennial Momentum: How a New Generation is Remaking America.” “[But] whether the turn-out number comes down, the percentage comes down, there will more of them.”
And more of them who see a personal stake in the outcome.
Kortney Easterly, of Atlanta, plans to vote for Obama as she did four years ago. But this time, she cares about the same things as older Americans: the economy, jobs and healthcare. She falls in line with survey results released this month by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, which found that Americans rank those issues as their top three concerns heading into the election.
“At 19-years-old, as a freshman in college in 2008, I had no idea the types of economic turmoil and social issues that our country was facing,” said Easterly via email.
But Easterly, 23, got a crash course in adulthood soon after graduating from Georgia State University last year. She counts herself lucky to have found full-time employment in marketing, enabling her to start paying back student debt. However, her employer doesn’t offer health benefits.
Easterly went without medical care for months when both her parents were laid off, but when they found jobs again, she was able to qualify for coverage under one of their healthcare plans. That’s one reason she plans to vote again for Obama, she said. Under Obamacare, young Americans can remain on their parents’ health insurance until they’re 26.
“I find myself identifying with a few ideals of the Republican Party; however, the Democratic Party’s ideals and goals are more in my favor,” she wrote.
Andrew Mullins, a Georgia Tech senior, doesn’t share her opinion. Mullins supports Romney, he said, because as an aspiring dentist and son of a physician, he believes the Republican agenda is more favorable to small business.
That’s just part of the message he shares with classmates in his role of chairman of the Georgia Tech College Republicans. He talks to them about jobs and the national debt, and said he believes the university is more conservative than some might believe.
But when asked to gauge the level of enthusiasm his peers have toward this election, Mullins said the heavily international school seems apathetic.
“This is an engineering school, so … people don’t care about politics,” he said. “They’re worried about their calculators running out of battery.”
Ashley Williams and Alex Rowell, both students at the University of Georgia, report that their campus is engaged.
Williams, the chairwoman of the UGA College Republicans, and Rowell, political director of the UGA Young Democrats, said their groups have worked together to reach new voters. They’ve also held debates to argue national policies. Further, both groups (as well as other Georgia college organizations) will join the state political parties in campaign efforts next month in Virginia and Florida — both of which, unlike Georgia, are shaping up as critical swing states.
Williams, 22, believes the GOP has been more effective in reaching young voters through social media than it did in 2008, when she campaigned for Sen. John McCain. Even the Romney artwork is hipper, she said.
On campus, her group works to attract voters with swag such as T-shirts, tank tops, bumper stickers and beer koozies.
“We are really, really trying to market Gov. Romney on campus better than we were able to do in 2008,” Williams said. “I hope that makes a difference.”
John Zogby, of JZ Analytics, said the youth vote is a key part of any campaign. Young voters accounted for 19 percent of the total electorate in 2008 and normally average 17 percent, he said. This year, he expects it to drop by a point from the 2008 high, resulting in 1.5 million fewer young voters, he said.
“In a close race, it’s absolutely crucial,” Zogby said of the millennial vote. “It’s one piece of Obama’s coalition that he ushered in that is not with him as strongly as Hispanics, African-Americans, singles and the creative class.”
Zogby added that Romney received a brief bump in popularity among young voters after announcing Paul Ryan as his running mate in August, but the surge in support was short-lived.
Tyler McGoff, who voted for McCain in 2008, said he plans to vote for Obama because he believes Romney is out of touch with people like him. McGoff graduated from GSU last year and has only been able to find part-time work in broadcasting.
“I do not think Mitt Romney understands or relates to the middle class,” McGoff, 23, said via email. “I think that electing Romney would only make problems in Washington worse than if we stuck with Obama for another term.”
Marc Corbi, 27, admits he didn’t vote in 2008 because he didn’t care for either candidate. But this time around, he plans to cast a ballot. He’s just not sure for whom.
The Dunwoody man is waiting for either candidate to articulate how the White House can boost job growth in the private sector, restore the housing market and help young adults amass long-term savings outside of the shaky Social Security system, he said.
“Both candidates have spoken about the issues that I care about, but in extremely broad terms,” said Corbi, an independent, via email. “The likability of the candidate doesn’t play a factor for me. I care more about the president being an outstanding leader and less about him having the personality of someone I want to grab a beer with.”
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