North Korea said Monday it will suspend operations at a factory complex it has jointly run with South Korea, pulling out more than 53,000 North Korean workers and moving closer to severing its last economic link with its rival as tensions escalate.
The Kaesong industrial complex just north of the Demilitarized Zone is the biggest employer in North Korea’s third-largest city. Shutting it down, even temporarily, would show that the destitute country is willing to hurt its own economy to display its anger with South Korea and the United States.
Pyongyang’s move follows weeks of threatening rhetoric and provocations aimed at Seoul and its U.S. ally following U.N. sanctions punishing the North for its third nuclear test, on Feb. 12. In recent days there have also been worries in Seoul of an even larger provocation from Pyongyang, including another possible nuclear test or rocket launch.
The point of the threats and possible future provocations, analysts say, isn’t a full-scale war, which North Korea would certainly lose. It’s seen instead as an effort to force new, Pyongyang-friendly policies in South Korea and Washington and to boost domestic loyalty for Kim Jong Un, the country’s young, still relatively untested new leader.
The statement about Kaesong came from Kim Yang Gon, secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea. It did not say what would happen to the 475 South Korean managers still at the Kaesong industrial complex. The statement also did not say whether the North Korean workers would be recalled immediately, and a South Korean manager at Kaesong said he had heard nothing from the North Korean government.
“North Korean workers left work at 6 o’clock today as they usually do. We’ll know tomorrow whether they will come to work,” said the manager, who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the media. North Korea had asked South Korean managers to say when they intended to leave by Wednesday; the manager said he did not know whether he and his South Korean colleagues now will be forced to leave.
Kim’s statement said North Korea will now consider whether to close the complex permanently. “How the situation will develop in the days ahead will entirely depend on the attitude” of South Korean authorities, it said.
Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University in South Korea, said the North probably will close the park. “North Korea will wait to see what kind of message we will send … but there is no message that we can send to North Korea,” he said.
Yoo said he expects the South Korean managers will be deported, Pyongyang will convert the park for military use, and the fates of the North Korean workers and their families will not be considered. “It’s a wrong decision but they won’t change it because it’s not their top priority,” he said.
Another analyst, however, believes North Korea will reopen the complex after South Korea-U.S. drills end in late April. Cheong Seong-chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea said the complex depends on raw materials and even electricity from South Korea. He also noted that workers at the complex are paid in U.S. dollars that North Korea would have a hard time replacing because of international sanctions.
Cheong also thinks that although North Korea would put recalled workers on other projects, it would “face a burden that it has to provide the similar quality of livelihood to them. … There would be voices calling for the normalization of the Kaesong complex.”
South Korea’s Unification Ministry, which is responsible for relations with the North, issued a statement saying South Korea will act “calmly and firmly” and will make its best efforts to secure the safety of South Koreans at Kaesong.
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