Storm gives Deal’s opponents an issue

Bart Gobeil, the state’s chief operating officer

Other state officials

Jim Butterworth, adjutant general, Georgia National Guard, and a former state senator

Charley English, head of the Georgia Emergency Management Agency

Keith Golden, commissioner, Department of Transportation

Mark McDonough, commissioner, Department of Public Safety

Jannine Miller, director, Georgia Regional Transportation Authority

Chris Tomlinson, director, State Road and Tollway Authority

Mark Williams, commissioner, Department of Natural Resources

Meteorologists

Markina Brown, Channel 46, CBS affiliate

Glenn Burns, Channel 2 Action News, ABC affiliate

Ken Cook, Fox 5

Chesley McNeil, 11 Alive, NBC affiliate

School administrators

Robert Avossa, Fulton County Schools superintendent

Emily Lembeck, Marietta City Schools superintendent

Michael Thurmond, DeKalb County Schools superintendent

Transportation officials

Ed Crowell, president, Georgia Motor Trucking Association

Jeffrey Parker, vice president, HNTB consulting firm

Keith Parker, CEO, MARTA

Utilities

Jerry Donovan, president, Georgia Transmission Corporation

Anthony Wilson, executive vice president, Georgia Power

Business community

Hala Moddelmog, president, Metro Atlanta Chamber

Gil West, senior vice president, Delta Air Lines

Legislators

State Rep. Mike Glanton , D-Jonesboro, member of the House Public Safety and Homeland Security Committee

State Sen. Steve Gooch, R-Dahlonega, chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee

State Rep. Jay Roberts, R-Ocilla, chairman of the House Transportation Committee

State Sen. Steve Thompson, D-Marietta, member of the Senate Transportation Committee

Local officials

Kelvin Cochran, fire chief, Atlanta

George Turner, police chief, Atlanta

Not confirmed

Representatives from AT&T, the National Weather Service, Verizon Wireless and a municipal leader from metro Atlanta

As metro Atlanta’s Snowjam melts into the region’s consciousness, Gov. Nathan Deal’s political opponents hope the government’s troubled response to the weather bogs down his march to re-election.

The governor’s backers say the icy gridlock that stalled metro Atlanta will fade from voters’ minds by the sunny May 20 primaries and be a faint memory by November’s elections. But his opponents are painting it as the latest in a series of tone-deaf moves from Georgia’s top leader.

Deal has responded with a vigorous public schedule and a slate of national TV interviews to try to show he’s learned from the mistakes of his lackluster response. The governor’s office plans a series of announcements in the coming weeks on new state emergency procedures designed to show the governor is embracing needed changes.

For Deal, though, the weather is only his latest political headache. Unrest from teachers over his administration’s changes to the state insurance plan and ongoing ethics questions have further muddied Deal’s path to re-election. His two GOP primary opponents and the well-financed campaign of Democrat Jason Carter are ready to pounce.

The governor doesn’t seem overly concerned about how the storm will affect his re-election bid. He expects voters to be swayed more by the 230,000 jobs he says were created under his watch and his mantra of stay-the-course conservatism.

“Sometimes people remember things like that, sometimes they don’t,” Deal said of the weather debacle. “It happened. It’s an event of history now, but it’s recent history.”

His spokesman, Brian Robinson, quickly added: “We’ll be judged by our efforts Tuesday (the day the storm hit), but we’ll also be judged by what we did Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and from there on.”

Past storms

Storms can make or break politicians, and a particularly tin-eared response has ruined political careers.

Take the 1979 Chicago mayoral race, when Michael Bilandic appeared to be a shoo-in for another term until a January storm dumped 20 inches of snow over two days. Roads were left unplowed, and buses and trains ground to a halt. Angry voters had the final say when they elected underdog rival Jane Byrne a month later.

Closer to home, South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges was chastised for failing to make traffic along I-26 one-way as Hurricane Floyd barreled in on Charleston in 1999. The epic traffic jams by evacuees was cited as a factor in Hodges’ defeat three years later.

By contrast, more effective responses can launch officeholders into the stratosphere. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's role in one of the largest evacuations in U.S. history ahead of Hurricane Gustav in 2008 earned him national plaudits. And New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's reaction to Superstorm Sandy in 2012 spurred more talk of a White House run.

Deal’s opponents are busy trying to depict him as the leader of a rudderless ship. The Democratic Governor’s Association released a scathing video last week slamming Deal’s response. State schools Superintendent John Barge and Dalton Mayor David Pennington, both challenging Deal in the GOP primary, accused the governor of trying to whitewash his record with empty promises of reforms.

“The world’s greatest plan does no good if your leader is asleep at the wheel and can’t execute,” Pennington said.

Carter, a state senator from Atlanta, is in a more delicate bind. He doesn’t want to tar a fellow Democrat, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, in the process of attacking Deal. He told a national TV audience he doesn’t want to play the “blame game” while suggesting just where he would put it.

“We’re going to investigate what happened, but it’s clear to me that next time, we have a system in place that allows us to respond to disasters,” Carter said. “But it requires the governor to take charge from the beginning, organize and institute the disaster management plan, and coordinate the communication. That didn’t happen.”

Other problems

Weather isn’t his biggest problem. Deal is still wrestling with his administration’s decision to change the health care plan used by 650,000 teachers, state employees, retirees and their families. The changes, meant to save the state $200 million a year, led to employees having only one provider and facing skyrocketing out-of-pocket costs.

Deal, wary of the same type of teacher unrest that helped defeat Gov. Roy Barnes in 2002, tried to fix the problem by drawing more than $100 million from the insurance plan’s reserve account to fix some of the changes. But many remain unconvinced. Marietta teacher John Palmer called the fixes “simply a Band-Aid on bad policy.”

“Rather than give employees options to fit individual families’ needs,” he said, “the state of Georgia has decided to make our health care choices for us.”

Deal earlier tried to placate educators by proposing an extra $547 million be spent on schools in the upcoming year. Some of the new money would go for the first cost-of-living raises in several years, he said. But many teachers may not wind up getting raises as districts use the money to dig out of financial holes created by past state spending cuts.

A growing ethics investigation also dogs Deal's campaign. The governor, his two top aides and his private attorney could soon be summoned to testify in a whistle-blower lawsuit involving the state ethics commission's handling of a case against him.

Deal’s camp senses an opportunity to shape the post-storm aftermath. He’s rolled out a new statewide alert system, launched an internal review and appointed a task force to draft plans to avoid another repeat. And he visited Westlake High School — Reed’s alma mater — to thank educators for keeping safe about 1,400 students trapped there by the icy weather.

Lasting impact?

The question of whether his amends have gone far enough will help color his re-election campaign. Already, Deal’s “stay the course” message of conservative stewardship contrasts sharply with Carter’s promise of more funding for education and more help for the middle class.

Democrats suspect voters will be reminded of the response during the dog days of the summer. TV ads will likely show stalled traffic, abandoned cars and Deal apologizing for the Snowjam mess.

“A crisis of this magnitude is not going to disappear like yesterday’s snow,” said state Sen. Nan Orrock, D-Atlanta. “Sometimes the public has a short memory, but something like this, when schoolchildren are involved, our city and this state are being pilloried across the country for this inexplicable Snowjam, it’s not going to go away overnight.”

Others aren’t so certain. Sandy Springs Mayor Rusty Paul, a prominent Republican, said he thinks voters will begin to empathize with elected officials as the election ticks closer. And Jay Morgan, a lobbyist and GOP strategist, said the schizophrenic nature of the news will force new story lines and rifts.

“By election time it will be something else. I don’t see this being an issue in May and certainly not in November,” Morgan said. “Governor’s races are decided on issue like taxes, education and jobs. The governor’s got a great record on that.”

And then there are those who were stuck in the gridlock. Karen Harbuck of Forsyth in Middle Georgia has little pity for those blaming the government for the disastrous gridlock. The only excuse anyone would have for not knowing it would snow, she said, was a broken neck. Still, she predicts the issue will dog Deal through November.

“It will impact the elections. Everyone wants to blame someone else,” she said. “And anyone that runs against him, they will all point the finger.”