Just more than a month before the South Carolina Republican presidential primary, many in the state’s GOP leadership are looking for the “anti-Trump.”
They better hurry.
The New York billionaire remains a polling juggernaut. He leads or is tied with U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in Iowa, has a dominant lead in New Hampshire and has maintained a double-digit lead here in the Palmetto State, a fact he made clear Saturday when speaking to a tea party convention.
“New Hampshire — (we’re) through the roof, and in a place called South Carolina, we’re leading by 18, 19, 20 points,” he told a roaring crowd Saturday in Myrtle Beach.
At the South Carolina Tea Party Coalition convention here, the mood was decidedly anti-establishment. Republican leadership in Washington was just as likely to be criticized by speakers and activists as President Barack Obama and Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. Those in attendance seemed equally divided between Trump and Cruz, and both were given heroes welcomes when introduced a few hours apart.
South Carolina party leaders, however, are going elsewhere. U.S. Rep. Mick Mulvaney has endorsed Rand Paul. Fellow Congressman Trey Gowdy picked Marco Rubio in December. U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham endorsed Jeb Bush this past week. And, on Wednesday, Gov. Nikki Haley used her nationally televised response to the president’s State of the Union to caution Republicans against the angry rhetoric of her party’s front runner.
At the tea party convention, however, Dan Douglass of Mount Pleasant said Haley should butt out. “I’m not a Trump supporter, but I think she should stay out of the presidential election.”
Barb Shepherd of Myrtle Beach, a retired federal employee, who volunteers every day from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. at Trump’s Myrtle Beach headquarters, agreed.
“I was disappointed,” she said. “Very disappointed. There’s too much political correctness.”
Mulvaney, Graham, Gowdy and Haley are hardly the only prominent Republicans in the state, but they are the only four of 15 federal or statewide elected officials to endorse this cycle, although, many expect U.S. Sen. Tim Scott to join his friend Gowdy in endorsing Rubio, the Florida senator.
Haley’s endorsement could carry some weight. The second-term governor was a tea-party favorite when first elected in 2010 and has made her name as a union-busting job creator. She’s also gained national notoriety in the past year for her competent handling of the murder of nine black parishoners at Emanuel AME Church in Charleston in June and her subsequent effort to remove the Confederate flag from statehouse grounds.
“I do think her endorsement would have some impact,” Richard Quinn, one of the top Republican political consultants in the state, said. “She’s popular.”
Quinn, who helped lead Graham’s campaign, is now unaffiliated in the race. He said the South Carolina outcome won’t be clear until after Iowa and New Hampshire, no matter the endorsements.
“You know as well as I that everything can be rebooted by Iowa and New Hampshire,” Quinn said. “It always happens that way.”
If Trump wins both states, however, forget about it, Quinn said.
“He will certainly march to victory in South Carolina,” he said.
Graham’s exit from the race and, now, his endorsement of Bush, could also move voters. While Graham never caught on as a presidential candidate, even in his home state, he remains popular. Much of South Carolina’s political elite, as well as its top Republican funders, were with him. Now, a goodly portion of them have moved to Bush.
“The Graham supporters will give (Bush) extra momentum,” David Wilkins, former speaker of the S.C. House and ambassador to Canada under President George W. Bush, said. “We just have to wait and see.”
“South Carolina is going to reset this race,” Graham said Friday morning. “Jeb Bush is going to be the nominee who is going to win the election we cannot afford to lose.”
Bush, appearing with Graham, acknowledged the stakes.
“South Carolina is going to be a really important primary,” he said. “It always seems to be that way. The direction of campaigns are set here in South Carolina.”
From 1980 to 2008, no Republican won the nomination without first winning the South Carolina primary. For a generation, this was the place where the establishment Republican candidate righted the ship.
Until Newt Gingrich came along.
Gingrich won the S.C. primary in 2012 but lost the nomination, stopping the state’s streak.
Supporters of other candidates said South Carolina is not a lock for any candidate. Former S.C. Attorney General Charlie Condon, who has endorsed Cruz, said it all depends on what happens elsewhere.
“I think (Cruz) will do really well in Iowa, less well in New Hampshire, and then ‘Boom!’ we open up to the southern United States. And he’s a terrific southern candidate. I really think he gets it.”
Condon said Haley’s comments after the State of the Union was about the tone of the campaign. But, he said, no one should under-estimate the mood of the voters.
“Our grassroots, that disenchantment with Washington is visceral and real,” he said. “And I think Ted gets that, too. There’s a lack of appreciation for why people are so upset with Washington. We have this Republican Congress, what have they done?”
At the tea party convention Saturday, Cruz hit the sweet spot.
“How many people here have been burned by politicians?” he said to a roar. “They come up, they campaign and they sound great. They say everything we want to hear. And we vote for them and they go to Washington and don’t do what they say. It happens over and over and over again.”
That’s the key, Joe Dugan, a Tea Party supporter from Myrtle Beach, said. The hundreds of Tea Party activists gathered here this weekend feel the same way, he said. They’re fed up with establishment Republicans promising one thing during campaigns and behaving another way in office.
Now Trump champions issues the Tea Party has espoused since it started, Dugan said.
“Because of his celebrity, because of his success he has the mainstream media following him around like a puppy dog,” Dugan said. “And he’s selling the message of personal responsibility, secure borders and being a force in the world. People have listened to him.”
Rebecca Brault, also of Myrtle Beach, said establishment Republicans don’t get it. They watch Trump and Cruz surge and shake their heads.
“People are just tired of mainstream politicians,” Brault said. “They’ve lost faith in their trust and integrity.”
Cruz and Trump are different, she said. Cruz hasn’t disappointed them like many elected officials and Trump exudes authenticity.
“He has all the money in the world,” Brault said. “He can do whatever he wants. So, what is he doing? He’s running for president.”
Shepherd, who volunteers at Trump’s headquarters, likens Trump to another celebrity who ran for president.
“This is an unusual time,” she said. “I’ve never seen enthusiasm like this since Reagan. We need an outsider to go in there and shake things up.”
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