“To me, it’s yet another bit of chaos in the market that indicates we need to do two things,” Kelly McCutchen, the president and CEO of the libertarian-leaning Georgia Public Policy Foundation, said of the report. “As a state, we need to move forward on a waiver plan immediately,” he said, referring to initiatives where the administration lets states set their own plans for managing Obamacare. As to the federal government, “they need to get back to work to address a reform plan because uncertainty is the problem.”
Laura Colbert, the executive director of the patient-advocacy group Georgians for a Healthy Future, is especially concerned about rural patients.
Ninety percent of Georgia’s Obamacare customers would be protected from the cost hikes by another kind of subsidy that they qualify for, which would fill the gap. However, Colbert added, “many middle- and higher-income people, and families who do not get any help purchasing insurance, would be hit with higher prices.”
"I think in general, there's a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace already," Colbert said. "Adding more uncertainty to it through the consequences from removing the (subsidies) would be harmful. It's just not a positive thing right now."
McCutchen would not address whether the subsidies should continue. The problem for insurance companies right now, he said, is that they don’t know what to charge because they don’t know what’s coming.
Officials with the CBO briefed reporters on their findings Tuesday in a national conference call. They said that a key date comes in September, when insurance companies must settle on the rates they intend to charge in 2018. If the government yanks the subsidies after that, it will be much more disruptive to the market, they said.
The uncertainty surrounding the cost-sharing reductions came after Congressional Republicans sued to stop the president from paying them; then this year, Trump spoke of them as a negotiating chip and tweeted that they are “BAILOUTS.”
If Congress and the president are interested in securing the subsidies or finding a replacement policy to tamp concern, there are barriers.
Congress is on recess until after Labor Day, so that makes it difficult for lawmakers to take action in time for the insurance companies’ filings.
Trump could try to instill confidence in the market that he will pay them by making a forceful statement. But as a leader who places great emphasis on dealmaking, it is an open question whether he would give up what he sees as a powerful negotiating chip purely for a policy goal.
Even now, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Georgia has filed notice it intends to pull out of the individual market in 74 of Georgia's 159 counties, specifically citing the uncertainty over the subsidies. If there's no more certainty by fall, it has reserved the right to pull out of even more counties. The insurer has filed plans to raise its rates by some 40 percent, again citing the uncertainty.
Other insurance companies filed rate requests indicating they would charge more if the subsidies were yanked, or they filed requests that implicitly included higher prices taking the uncertainty into account, business analysts said.
“In any business opportunity, perceived risk affects the pricing,” said Chris Kane, a consultant on health care insurance and hospitals. “The recent legislative dynamics in Washington do not foster confidence in the boardrooms of health insurance companies.”
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is getting ready to launch a new premium experience for readers across the state who care about Georgia politics, policy and state news. PoliticallyGeorgia will bring you reporting you can’t get anywhere else, thought-provoking opinion writing, and tools to help you navigate the world of government and make your voice heard.