Sonny Perdue’s 2006 re-election campaign was supposed to start the Democratic turnaround in Georgia. So was Barack Obama’s historic candidacy two years later, the wide-open governor’s race two years after that and the 2014 campaign that featured two big-name political legacies.
After years of humbling losses to an ascendant Republican Party, state Democrats say they might finally have found their savior. And he goes by the name of Donald Trump.
Party leaders launched a statewide campaign this month to prove Georgia can join neighbors Florida and North Carolina as a battleground state. And on Tuesday they trumpeted internal polls that suggest a GOP ticket headlined by Trump, or to a lesser extent Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, could give Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton a shot.
The party’s talk of a comeback is a familiar trope, and one that has been disproved in each election cycle since Roy Barnes was denied a second term in the governor’s mansion in 2002. While neighbors like Virginia and North Carolina have veered toward purple-state status, Georgia has only grown a deeper shade of red.
This time, though, the party is betting that the gender gap that Trump faces is too daunting for him to overcome. The front runner has faced accusations of sexism for a litany of incendiary remarks about women, and national polls show a wide majority of female voters have an unfavorable view of him.
Democrats have also tapped veterans from battleground states of Ohio and North Carolina to lead a program that aims to identify supporters, recruit volunteers and turn them into votes. It's funded partly by an initial $100,000 donation from New York investor Philip Munger, a Clinton backer who has funnelled $1 million into Virginia's Democratic party.
Even some Republicans warn that the GOP nominee could be vulnerable in Georgia if the party doesn’t unite behind whoever emerges as the pick.
“We, as Republicans, should never underestimate the Clinton machine and the potential for a very close presidential election in Georgia in 2016,” said Heath Garrett, a veteran GOP operative and adviser to U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson.
“We know that we have a gender gap. We have a diversity gap. And we have a generational gap,” he added. “And if we’re at a civil war as a party we have to acknowledge that it makes November more viable for Democrats in Georgia.”
‘2020 may be a different story’
Georgia hasn’t awarded its electoral votes to a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton in 1992, and Republicans have steadily consolidated power since then. The last two election cycles, the GOP swept every statewide office in Georgia and maintained commanding majorities in the state Legislature.
President Barack Obama came closest to shattering Georgia’s status quo. He successfully splintered the South in 2008, winning Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, and his late spending push in Georgia helped him reach 47 percent that year – the high-water mark for Democratic presidential candidates in the state since native son Jimmy Carter’s run.
Clinton, should she win the Democratic nomination, is likely to target the same trio of states that Obama won in 2008, though her Georgia strategy is more uncertain. Her supporters have described the Peach State as a "tier two" target — a potential swing state - but skeptics say the changing demographics that could make Georgia more competitive won't boost the party for a few more cycles.
“It would take a severely weak Trump or Cruz to give Clinton the win in Georgia – or a strong third party candidate,” said Kerwin Swint, a Kennesaw State University political scientist who cautioned of the deep undercurrent of “Clinton hate” in Georgia among largely white male voters. “2020 may be a different story.”
Democrats need no reminders of the last time the party had high hopes — in 2014 when Jimmy Carter and Sam Nunn passed the torch to their scions. Jason Carter and Michelle Nunn together amassed more than $23 million in their bids for governor and an open U.S. Senate seat. Both lost.
Trump, too, would be no soft target for Democrats in Georgia. He took all but four of Georgia's counties in Georgia's GOP primary and won nearly every demographic in the Republican electorate.
“There’s no chance. They are out of their minds if they think that Hillary Clinton can beat Donald Trump in Georgia,” said Seth Weathers, a one-time Trump state director in Georgia who pointed to a turnout boost in GOP counties in the March 1 primary. “And this surge of voter enthusiasm will pay dividends in November.”
Cruz would also likely find a deep reservoir of support in Georgia. He finished third in the Georgia contest but his appeal to evangelicals still helped him win a sweep of delegates across the South, and much of the state’s establishment has rallied around him.
Still, Democrats see a glimmer of hope.
An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released earlier this year found that 65 percent of independent voters, a crucial bloc for any GOP contender in Georgia, have an unfavorable view of the billionaire. (The same poll shows Clinton, too, faces an uphill battle: A majority of Georgia voters, some 53 percent, gave her an unfavorable rating – along with nine in 10 Republicans.)
Georgia Democrats unveiled their own survey Tuesday by the left-leaning Lake Research Partners that showed 50 percent of likely voters would pick Clinton in November, compared to 37 percent for Trump A potential matchup with Cruz had Clinton at 47 percent and Cruz at 40 percent.
“Georgia is really in play,” said David Mermin, an analyst with the firm. “And the state could well turn blue in November.”
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