COLUMBIA, SC — In the presidential election, the Savannah River is the dividing line for attention.
South Carolina once again is playing host to a parade of presidential hopefuls in search of picky voters and activists, who want to be courted by candidates before they make a decision.
Georgia has thrust itself into the 2016 conversation to an extent by spearheading the March 1 SEC Primary. Republican hopefuls Sen. Marco Rubio, Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Chris Christie ventured to Athens this week to woo state GOP delegates and a whole passel will be in Atlanta in August for a conservative confab.
But the four early-voting states still reign supreme.
To wit: A candidate tracker by National Journal showed 71 stops by potential presidential hopefuls in South Carolina this year, compared to 22 in Georgia, as of Thursday. And 10 of those were Republicans pitching mega-donors at the closed-door American Enterprise Institute World Forum in Sea Island.
South Carolinians know what they’ve got.
“It’s like Christmas,” Dona Ayers, a Republican activist and fund raiser in South Carolina. “The best thing about working and living, even if you’re just Joe Citizen, in an early primary state is you legitimately have an opportunity to meet the next president. They’re everywhere.”
It’s not just the chance to meet the next occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. There’s also an important economic impact for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — the quartet of states the Democratic and Republican parties have granted the privilege of voting early in the primary process.
A recent University of South Carolina study conducted by the state GOP chairman found that the 2012 Republican presidential primary provided the state $20 million in direct spending and $30 million in free marketing value.
With races in both parties this cycle and campaign spending continually breaking records, that number is likely to rise.
A little bit of everything
Each of the early states has unique characteristics that help shape the race. Iowa is largely rural with a heavy emphasis on family and agriculture. New Hampshire is notoriously independent. Nevada’s Hispanic population forces candidates to broaden their appeal. South Carolina offers most of that and more.
While three times larger than New Hampshire, it’s still relatively small. It has the highest percentage of African-American voters of any early state, and it’s relatively inexpensive to buy television ads.
The regional differences are striking, particularly on the Republican side, which varies from Upstate social conservatives to moderate northern transplants on the coast.
“We can kind of give you the full range of the GOP primary voter,” said Taylor Mason, third vice chair of the S.C. Republican Party.
South Carolina is different in another way: It’s infamous for its rough brand of politics. Whether the nasty McCain-Bush battle of 2000 that featured anonymous attacks accusing McCain of having an illegitimate black child, or more recent accusations of infidelity against Gov. Nikki Haley, Southern charm often gets set aside come campaign season.
“We don’t care how they do it up north,” Ayers said. “The gloves come off in South Carolina.”
South Carolinians get the kind of access to candidates that Georgians who aren’t big donors can only dream of.
On May 9, 11 potential Republican presidential candidates traveled to Greenville for the “South Carolina Freedom Summit.” In addition to pitching their visions to the crowd, nearly all of them also held more intimate events for small groups.
Building a team
As the candidates make their early passes through the state, a full nine months before the primary vote, they are seeking to recruit consultants with local ties and influential activists to their cause.
One roadblock on the GOP side is the presence of third-term U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a hometown favorite with deep roots in the state’s political infrastructure. Graham has said he will announce his presidential campaign June 1, and many influential Republicans are hesitant to cross him by picking another candidate.
State Rep. Rick Quinn is part of one of the state’s top GOP consulting firms that normally would be entertaining offers from top presidential candidates. The Quinn family represented John McCain in 2000 and 2008, and Newt Gingrich in 2012. But they are also Graham’s consultants, and until Graham makes a formal decision, the Quinns remain on the sideline.
“There’s no question Lindsey has changed the dynamic a lot,” Quinn said. “You have a lot of apparatus that would normally pick a side locked up waiting for him.”
The Bush family has won great success in South Carolina over the years, but many Republicans said they were surprised that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has not locked down more support.
Key members of the Bushes’ old team in the state have signed on with Rubio. Warren Tompkins, another top S.C. Republican operative, is chairing a Rubio super PAC and Terry Sullivan, Tompkins’ former protege who helped Mitt Romney in the state in 2008, is now Rubio’s campaign manager.
Bush does, however, have veteran S.C. GOP operative Jim Dyke leading his super PAC, while Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Cruz have hired local staff.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is the clear front-runner and has made early moves to build an organization. She has 10 paid staffers on the ground, led by Clay Middleton, who helped direct Barack Obama’s winning operation in the state in 2008. So far, Clinton has signed up 2,200 volunteers ahead of her first visit to the state May 27.
While she is certainly the favorite to dominate South Carolina and other early states, Democrats here say Clinton needs to come earn their vote like anyone else.
“We don’t do the teleconference,” said state House Minority Leader Todd Rutherford, D-Columbia.
Up close and personal
Brad Warthen, former editorial page editor for Columbia’s The State newspaper, said South Carolinians — himself included — take pride in vetting candidates.
“It’s not to the extent that it is in New Hampshire, where it’s such a small state everybody gets to meet everybody,” said Warthen, who now writes about politics on his eponymous personal blog. “But, you know, I think South Carolina takes the responsibility pretty seriously, although the Newt Gingrich thing works against that.”
Ah, yes, Newt Gingrich. The former Georgian and former U.S. House speaker won the Palmetto State’s GOP primary in 2012, ending South Carolina’s perfect record of predicting the Republican nominee since 1980.
“Yeah, he broke our streak,” Ayers said. “We were proud of that (streak).”
It’s too early to tell if Gingrich’s victory was an anomaly or a sign that South Carolina Republicans no longer reflect the broader Republican electorate.
While South Carolina is seen — often rightfully so —as far to the right, in presidential primaries it has been the saving grace for the GOP establishment. Candidates named Bush won in 1988 (George H.W. Bush) and again in 2000 (George W. Bush). McCain won the state in 2008. South Carolina also proved to be a firewall for President George H.W. Bush and then-U.S. Sen. Bob Dole, R-Kansas, against Pat Buchanan in 1992 and 1996, respectively.
The 2012 race provided a reminder of how quickly fortunes can swing here, and the GOP race this time seems even more wide open.
That means more political courtship for people like Alexia Newman, an influential anti-abortion activist who runs a crisis pregnancy center in Spartanburg. She backed former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in 2012 after a thorough vetting of his record, and even though Santorum is running again, Newman has not settled on a candidate this time.
So far this year she’s been up close with Santorum, Rubio, Cruz, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and businessman Trump.
Said Newman: “It probably makes us feel more special than we are.”
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