The Republican primary race is far from over. Was that the takeaway you expected after Donald Trump won seven of 11 states, including Georgia, on Super Tuesday?
I’ve been amazed at how many people who normally rail against the narratives set by the “mainstream media” have, in this case, bought the idea the race is all but over. But know this: Trump woke up Wednesday with a lesser chance than before, mathematically, of winning the GOP nomination outright before this summer’s convention in Cleveland.
Trump entered Tuesday with some 62 percent of the delegates awarded. Now, thanks to a handful of losses and the proportional awarding of delegates, he’s down to about 46 percent.
So as of now, Trump isn’t in line to clinch the nomination. He’s running significantly behind the 2012 pace of Mitt Romney (who’d won 61 percent of delegates at this point), John McCain’s pace from 2008 (58 percent) and George W. Bush’s from 2000 (71 percent). He is the weakest GOP front-runner in some time.
Of course, much will change March 15, when states can award all of their delegates to the winner. But with Trump’s support mostly hovering in the 30s, it is clear he could still be beaten one-on-one, and perhaps in a three-man race. The question is how other candidates might stop him.
Ted Cruz had a big night, claiming victories in Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska. That brings him to four states won overall, halfway to the threshold for being officially placed in nomination when the convention starts. More important, Cruz fought Trump nearly to a draw in terms of delegates Tuesday. That said, when Cruz entered the race, he didn’t count on losing states like Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee.
While Cruz is in a clear second place, his outlook is unclear. His campaign was built to capitalize with deeply conservative, evangelical voters, but the states where they are prevalent are mostly finished voting. His best bet is for Marco Rubio to drop out ASAP.
Rubio, meanwhile, had a frustratingly typical night. He won his first state (Minnesota), ran a very close second in Virginia and increased his share of the delegates. But his “Marcomentum” fell short elsewhere.
He now stands third, in a race that needs to get down to two or three candidates very soon if Trump is to be stopped. That’s not a great place to be. Florida was always crucial for him: The question now is whether a win there could still make him, or if a loss would just break him. Rubio’s best chance is for a contested convention.
Then there’s John Kasich. (Ben Carson, per reports Wednesday, is dropping out of the race.)
Kasich nearly won Vermont and finished a distant second in Massachusetts. His claim to fame, then, is beating the other non-Trumps — but not Trump himself — in a trio of states that most likely will go Democrat this fall.
That leaves him as a spoiler. Like Rubio, Kasich could deny Trump a lot of delegates by winning his home state. But beyond Ohio, he needs to win states and not just be slightly more competitive than others in Trump blowouts.
As for Trump, the main thing on his side is time. Like a basketball team nursing a lead, his lead might have narrowed but the clock is running.
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