Today, Libya stands at a crossroads of international politics, as it did when it was created as a nation after World War II. Astute diplomacy, which reflects emerging world trends — not military escalation — is crucial to create a stable future for Libya.
Before World War II, Libya was a colony (acquired from Turkey in 1912) in the Italian empire. Actually, it had been two major colonies, Tripolitania in the west (capital at Tripoli) and Cyrenaica in the east (capital at Benghazi). Mussolini merged both colonies with the vast interior region of Fezzan in 1934.
Under British military occupation, and as an independent kingdom, the dual capitals returned in various forms until Col. Moammar Gadhafi overthrew the monarchy, establishing Tripoli as the capital and seat of his power. This historical division is eerily similar to the situation today.
As we approach the latter decades of oil politics when the wells run dry, what role will oil-producing states like Libya have in the short- and long-term future? Can economies be created to support them later this century? A second force is the Arab reawakening. From Tunisia to Iraq, regime change and more representative government are demands of the day. What will each of these re-formed Arab states look like politically? Will conservative religious forces or more secular ones shape their politics?
Farsighted diplomats must consider these emerging mega-trends as Libya and the Arab world looks to the future.
The U.N. has intervened in Libya, having created a broad coalition.
So far, there has been unity underpinning this global effort. But the coalition may weaken over time. China must fear a Facebook revolution at home, and Russia has its own civil strife in Chechnya. Both abstained on the U.N. vote on intervention. Meanwhile, Turkey has offered its own mediation, and NATO wants more U.S. participation again. Now U.S. drone planes are coming.
Pursuing a diplomatic course, the nations of the African Union pursued a strategy quite different from that of the U.N.: getting Gadhafi to agree to a cease-fire and presenting a road map to peace through diplomacy. Now Gadhafi has agreed to accept a cease-fire to begin negotiations.
But Great Britain, France and Italy are sending military advisers to Cyrenaica. This might be an unfortunate step to much greater military presence.
Quite interesting are some unusual diplomatic efforts. Gadhafi wrote personally to President Barack Obama. The letter appeared the very next day on the Internet. The U.S., Britain and France submitted a foreign policy editorial to the Times of London, an unprecedented action.
Is this the start of Facebook diplomacy? Surely, if we can start revolutions with Internet posts, we also should be able to learn ways to stop civil wars.
For now, we need high-order transformational diplomacy to help create the new state of Libya. Otherwise NATO is looking at something similar to U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. That would be taking the wrong road.
Silvio Laccetti, a professor of social sciences, wrote his doctoral dissertation on the Italian Peace Treaty after World War II.
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