Just nine years ago, Georgia added a ban on gay marriage to its constitution. The Voting Rights Act was a way of political life. And women had access to a number of abortion-related options. Today, the ban on gay marriage remains, a key provision of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) is no longer in place, and there is a push to criminalize abortion in many cases.
While the country becomes more liberal, we found Georgia remaining a bastion of conservative ideals. The questions are why, and will it change?
We recently conducted a Social Values Survey among likely voters throughout Georgia. We found that, by a small majority of 51 to 49 percent, voters do not believe the VRA is still necessary; 60 percent of Georgians oppose legalizing gay/same sex marriage, and 53 percent of voters are pro-life by one definition or another.
Consider the following: According to statistics offered by the Georgia Secretary of State, nearly 90 percent of all active voters are either black or white; and nearly 64 percent are 40 and over, with approximately 25 percent over age 60.
Think about that. While there is much discussion about how demographics will change Georgia politically, the demographic realities of the state indicate change will take 20 or more years, not 5 to 10 years.
Although the mathematics of demography seems certain, we see two ways to change this long-term projection. The first possibility is an influx of over 1 million young (under 40) new active voters. Option 2 is the occurrence of a significant social event that captures the attention of voters, something akin to Bull Connor hosing down and sending attack dogs after peaceful black protesters while the country is watching; or a dramatic social media-driven movement.
Without one or both of these system shocks, change will be slow.
The socially liberal young voters, ages 17 to 25, are the smallest proportion of registered voters. It will take 15 to 23 years for this group to become part of the majority.
Based on our research, it is not safe to assume that more racial diversity will move the meter on gay marriage, as a majority of African-Americans do not support it. It could move the meter on issues like abortion — over 60 percent of African-Americans support legalized abortion — but emerging Hispanic and Asian populations will also have a voice on these issues.
Ironically, as support for issues like gay marriage grows, it diminishes for issues like the Voting Rights Act. Just as conservative blacks and whites create a bloc that, in effect, blocks gay marriage, whites opposed to and in support of gay marriage create a bloc that, in effect, blocks public support for the Voting Rights Act. Each group suppresses support for the other.
Georgia is trending towards being more socially liberal by today’s standards. To us, the question is not if, but when. Even Georgia cannot withstand Father Time.
Fredrick Hicks is the president of the Hicks Evaluation Group, a non-partisan consulting firm. He is also the lead pollster on the Social Values Survey. Dr. Omar Nagi, director of undergraduate studies at the College of Mount St. Vincent in New York, is the survey’s methodologist.
